Vikings vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:02 AM
  • The Vikings (2-1) are -2.5 point favorites vs the Saints (1-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on NFL Network

The Minnesota Vikings (2-1) visit Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on the New Orleans Saints (1-2) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30am EDT in London.

The Vikings are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Vikings vs. Saints Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Vikings vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Vikings-2.5 -11543.5 -110-145
Saints +2.5 -10543.5 -110+120

Vikings vs. Saints Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this Week 4 game with 67.5% confidence.

Vikings vs Saints Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread this Week 4 with 66.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Vikings and Saints, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Vikings Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jalen Reagor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Dalvin Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.00 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Marquez Callaway has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Latavius Murray has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Jameis Winston has hit the Passing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Taysom Hill has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Alvin Kamara has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 35% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Vikings

Player Name Over Under
Justin Jefferson 85.5 -115 85.5 -110
Adam Thielen 49.5 -115 49.5 -110
Irv Smith Jr. 26.5 -110 26.5 -115
K.J. Osborn 32.5 -115 32.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Vikings

Player Name Over Under
Kirk Cousins 3.5 -115 3.5 -110
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.50 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.10 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 1-2 (-1.3 Units / -38.24% ROI).

  • Vikings are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 19.8% ROI
  • Vikings are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Vikings are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints have gone 0-3 (-3.35 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Saints are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -27.66% ROI
  • Saints are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Saints are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Vikings are winless (0-3) when getting 4 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .282.

The Vikings are 7-2 (.778) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .665.

The Vikings are 4-6 (.400) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Vikings are winless (0-7) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .323.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Saints are 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .177.

The Saints are 4-5-1 (.400) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Saints are 1-8 (.111) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2021 season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .302.

The Saints are 1-7-1 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .356.

Additional Matchup Notes for Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints have run just 9.7% offensive plays in the red zone this season — fifth-worst in NFL. Vikings has allowed their opponent to run just 7.8% of plays in the red zone this season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of just 35.4% since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 36.1% since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Saints have averaged 398 yards from scrimmage per game (1,195 YFS / 3 G) this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed an average of 427.7 yards from scrimmage per game (1,283/3) this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Vikings have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 77.3% of pass attempts this season — third-highest in NFL. The Saints have allowed just 4.6 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

The Vikings have gained at least 5 yards on 50.0% of first down plays this season — third-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed at least 5 yards on 48.1% of first down plays this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Vikings have run successful plays on 57% of rush attempts this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Vikings have gone three and out 21 times in the 2nd quarter since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Vikings were not flagged on offense in Week 3 — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Vikings ran successful plays on 77% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Saints are averaging 15.0 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Saints have started 7 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Saints have gone three and out 24 times in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Saints have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 2nd half this season — most in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Vikings defense did not record a sack (41 pass attempts) in Week 3 — tied for worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.6.

The Vikings defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Vikings defense allowed 200.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 160.3.

The Vikings defense has allowed a passer rating of just 36.5 when blitzing (12 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 99.4.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Saints defense allowed 12.2 yards after the catch (146 RAC / 12 receptions) in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

Only 8% of the plays ran against the Saints were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints defense has no interceptions and 2 TD passes allowed this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 32% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.