For just the second time in nearly two decades, the over is on pace for a profitable season in NHL betting. Barely.
In 2017-18, the over went 628-605-37 during the regular season, producing an ROI of +1.7% for a profit of $2,194 if you bet $100 on the over in each of those 1,240 games.
That’s the only time since 2005 in which the over was profitable for an entire season. And for the first half of the 2021-22 season, the over appeared destined for another season in the red.
Through January, the over was almost exactly .500 (336-337-22) but, thanks to dozens of under wins with plus odds, the over had an ROI of -3.9%.
Since February, the over has hit in approximately 57% of games for an ROI of +8%. That has bumped the season-long ROI to +0.2% entering the final four weeks of the regular season.
How did we get here? Here’s a look at some notable trends for over-under betting this season:
There have been 202 games this season in which the total increased from open to close. The over has hit in 110 of those games (and pushed in 13) for an ROI of +12.2%.
This trend has been particularly profitable over the second half of the season. Since February 1, the over is 50-22-4 with an ROI of +31.4% in these spots, a run that included an eight-game over streak from March 24-29.
Predators’ Road Games
The Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers failed to hit the over in their game at Rogers Arena on Jan. 27. That’s the last time – and the only time since the first week of January – a Predators’ road game went under the total.
The over is 15-1 in Predators’ road games since Jan. 6, giving them a season-long over record of 26-9 as the road team, by far the best in the NHL. The ROI of +42.7% is nearly 14 percentage points higher than the next best road over team.
Home Teams in Back-to-Backs
From 2005-2021, the over was horrendous when the home team was playing the second half of a back-to-back. You would’ve lost nearly $15,000 (ROI of -6.9%) if you wagered $100 on the over for each regular-season game over that time.
It’s a different story this season.
The over is 68-42-3 this year when the home team is playing the second half of a back-to-back, producing an ROI of +17.9%. Eight teams have an ROI of at least +50% in these spots, including the Columbus Blue Jackets at +68.3% in eight opportunities.
High Totals in Back-to-Backs
The over has been particularly dominant in those home back-to-back spots when the total is at least 6.5.
In those 44 opportunities, the over is 29-13-2 (.690) for an ROI of +31.2% and a profit of $1,372.
Bad Defensive Teams
Historically, when two teams with high goals against averages meet, the over has been in the red. That’s not the case this year.
From 2005-21, the over had an ROI of -5.7% when both teams entered the game allowing an average of at least three goals per game.
This season, however, the over is hitting in 57% of those games for an ROI of +8.1%. And it’s hitting in 61% of non-divisional games when both teams entered with a GAA of at least 3 (ROI of +16.5%).