Two days after the Colorado Avalanche suffered a 4-goal loss to the Boston Bruins on Feb. 24, they visited the Detroit Red Wings as a favorite. Gabriel Landeskog scored 72 seconds into the game as the Avs cruised to a 5-2 win, easily covering the puck line (-1.5, +105).
It was the fifth time over the last two seasons that Colorado was a road favorite in its first game after a loss by at least four goals. The Avs have covered in four of those five games, contributing their share of a highly profitable NHL betting trend.
Since the start of the 2021 season, there have been 47 games in which a road team was favored one game after a loss by at least four goals.
As of March 23, the road team is 29-17 ATS in those games, delivering a return on investment (ROI) of 61.2%.
If you bet $100 on each of the 47 road favorites, you’d be up $2,877 on a $4,700 investment.
More than 80% of that profit has come when the spread juice is at least +165; the road favorites are 17-10 ATS with an ROI of 87.6% and profit of $2,364 in those spots. Most recently, the Minnesota Wild covered (-1.5, +210) against the Edmonton Oilers on Feb. 20, two days after a 4-goal loss to the Florida Panthers.
Post-blowout road favorites are similarly successful on the moneyline. Currently riding a 10-game winning streak, they are 38-7 with an ROI of 41.5% and profit of $1,866 since 2021.
The last loss by a post-blowout road favorite came on Jan. 8 when the Washington Capitals blew a 2-goal lead in an eventual shootout loss to the Wild.
Here’s the active 10-game moneyline winning streak:
|Date||Road Favorite||Home Dog||Result|
|2/23/22||Avalanche||Red Wings||Avalanche, 5-2|
|1/13/22||Jets||Red Wings||Jets, 3-0|