NHL Betting Trend: Road Favorites Dominate After Blowout Loss

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(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Mar 24, 2022, 9:08 AM

Two days after the Colorado Avalanche suffered a 4-goal loss to the Boston Bruins on Feb. 24, they visited the Detroit Red Wings as a favorite. Gabriel Landeskog scored 72 seconds into the game as the Avs cruised to a 5-2 win, easily covering the puck line (-1.5, +105).

It was the fifth time over the last two seasons that Colorado was a road favorite in its first game after a loss by at least four goals. The Avs have covered in four of those five games, contributing their share of a highly profitable NHL betting trend.

Since the start of the 2021 season, there have been 47 games in which a road team was favored one game after a loss by at least four goals.

As of March 23, the road team is 29-17 ATS in those games, delivering a return on investment (ROI) of 61.2%.

If you bet $100 on each of the 47 road favorites, you’d be up $2,877 on a $4,700 investment.

More than 80% of that profit has come when the spread juice is at least +165; the road favorites are 17-10 ATS with an ROI of 87.6% and profit of $2,364 in those spots. Most recently, the Minnesota Wild covered (-1.5, +210) against the Edmonton Oilers on Feb. 20, two days after a 4-goal loss to the Florida Panthers.

Post-blowout road favorites are similarly successful on the moneyline. Currently riding a 10-game winning streak, they are 38-7 with an ROI of 41.5% and profit of $1,866 since 2021.

The last loss by a post-blowout road favorite came on Jan. 8 when the Washington Capitals blew a 2-goal lead in an eventual shootout loss to the Wild.

Here’s the active 10-game moneyline winning streak:

DateRoad FavoriteHome DogResult
3/17/22StarsCanadiensStars, 4-3
3/3/22WildFlyersWild, 5-4
2/23/22AvalancheRed WingsAvalanche, 5-2
2/20/22WildOilersWild, 7-3
2/12/22BruinsSenatorsBruins, 2-0
1/22/22LightningSharksLightning, 7-1
1/20/22PanthersOilersPanthers, 6-0
1/15/22CapitalsIslandersCapitals, 2-0
1/15/22PenguinsSharksPenguins, 2-1
1/13/22JetsRed WingsJets, 3-0

You can view updated NHL odds for the remainder of the regular season and Stanley Cup playoffs and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM sportsbook.

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.