Road Favorites Suck in Stanley Cup Playoff Betting

min read
(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Apr 27, 2022, 7:36 PM

The Boston Bruins were swept by the Ottawa Senators in the 2016-17 regular season, 4-0, and were just 2-10 against them over the last three seasons. Nonetheless, in NHL betting, the Bruins were road favorites (-1.5, +250) against the Senators in the Game 1 of their first-round series in the 2017 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Brad Marchand’s goal in the final minutes broke a 1-1 tie and ultimately gave Boston a 2-1 win. But in failing to score on an empty net minutes later, the Bruins failed to cover the puck line, giving road favorites the first of 15 ATS losses in the 2017 postseason.

The Minnesota Wild – in Game 4 of their first-round series against the St. Louis Blues – and the Nashville Predators – in Game 1 of semifinals series against the Anaheim Ducks – were the only two road favorites to cover in 17 opportunities.

Road favorites finished 2-15 against the spread in 2017.

It was the seventh time in the last decade – no home postseason games were played in 2020 – road favorites produced of ROI of -20% or worse:

YearATSROIProfit/Loss
202110-24-20%-$681
2018-192-4-55.3%-$332
2017-187-5+60.5%+$726
2016-172-15-70.7%-$1,201
2015-1610-11+34%+$713
2014-152-4-27.1%-$163
2013-144-11-50.9%-$764
2012-133-10-23.9%-$311
2011-124-15-45.7%-$869

If you bet $100 on each of the 143 road favorites from 2012-21, you would’ve lost nearly $3,000 on an investment of  $14,300 – ROI of -20.1%.

The Bruins account for 17 of the 99 ATS losses for road favorites; they’re just 5-17 in those spots over seven different postseason appearances since the 2011-12 season, including 1-5 last year.

Of the 24 different teams that have been a road postseason favorite over that time, 18 are in the red – led by the Bruins (5-17 ATS, -$715) – and only six teams are in the black – led by the Pittsburgh Penguins (12-16 ATS, +$543).

You can view updated NHL odds throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM sportsbook.

BetMGM $1000 Welcome Bonus Offer
About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.