This weekend’s sports calendar includes the NFL Draft, (at least) seven Stanley Cup Playoff games, and (at least) two NBA playoff games.
Here’s a look at the biggest online sports betting opportunities from Friday night through Sunday.
Stanley Cup Playoffs
Friday-Sunday, April 28-30 | TV: ABC, TBS, and TNT
Seven of the eight first-round playoff series will go at least six games; four Game 6s are scheduled for Friday night, and three are scheduled for Saturday. Assuming we get at least one Game 7, there’s an over/under betting trend worth noting.
Since 2005, in nearly 1,500 Games 1 through 6 of all playoff series, the over/under record is almost even. The over is just 13 games under .500 (633-646-196) with an ROI of -0.3%.
In only 72 Game 7s since 2005, the over is also 13 games under .500 (25-38-9) with an ROI of -17.4%.
There could be four Game 7s on Sunday: Panthers at Bruins, Islanders at Hurricanes, Kraken at Avalanche, Wild at Stars.
Friday-Sunday, April 28-30 | TV: ESPN
In the NBA, meanwhile, only two of the eight first-round playoff series will go at least six games; both Game 6s — Grizzlies at Lakers and Kings at Warriors — are scheduled for Friday night.
The Kings are in a tough spot, so here’s one historical reason for optimism as they ride a three-game losing streak into an elimination game against the defending NBA champions.
Road teams that lost the previous game as the home team are 111-89-2 (.555) against the spread since 2005, including 3-0 this postseason and 12-3 the last two years.
As of Friday morning’s NBA odds, the Kings are a 7.5-point underdogs against the Warriors.
Friday & Saturday, April 28-29 | TV: ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network
If you bet on Bryce Young to be the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, hopefully, you did so in mid-to-late March.
It was the second week of March when Young plummeted from the minus odds as the longtime favorite to +300 amidst rumors of the Carolina Panthers’ interest in C.J. Stroud after they acquired the No. 1 pick. Young returned to minus odds four weeks later and eventually climbed to -2500 on Thursday.
If you didn’t, hopefully, you can find value in some futures markets that shifted after Friday’s first round. Among the changes:
The Eagles climbed in several futures markets, including Super Bowl odds and NFC East odds, after selecting Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. They moved from +900 to +850 in Super Bowl odds and +110 to +100 in NFC East odds.
The Ravens, after re-signing Lamar Jackson and drafting Zay Flowers, jumped from +2500 in Super Bowl odds to +1800. They also went from +350 to +275 in AFC North odds.