United States vs. Canada Four Nations Final: Odds, Predictions

The dream NHL matchup is officially set.

The inaugural Four Nations Face-Of has been a smash hit, and the first NHL-sanctioned best-on-best tournament in eight years will be capped with a spectacular rematch between Canada and the United States on Thursday at TD Garden in Boston.

The US won the first meeting, 3-1, in a game highlighted by high energy, bad blood and the Americans’ lockdown defense. But Canada clinched its berth in the final by hanging on for a 5-3 win over Finland on Monday afternoon.

The Americans are considered a slight favorite, but who knows what to expect in the rematch. Here is a breakdown of the Four Nations Face-Off championship game.

Four Nations Face-Off Schedule

Four Nations Face-Off Championship Game

• Who: United States  vs Canada
• When: Thursday, 8 p.m. ET
• Where: TD Garden; Boston
• TV: ESPN/ESPN+ in the United States; Sportsnet in Canada

Four Nations Face-Off Championship Odds

• Canada (-110)
• United States (-110) 

Four Nations Face-Off Moneyline Bet

United States (-110)

The United States may be banged up, since both Matthew and Brady Tkachuk are dealing with injuries, and Auston Matthews missed the final round-robin game against Sweden. But the Americans still came five posts away from potentially earning a point in a meaningless game, where they lost 2-1.

There will be pressure on the U.S. by playing in Boston – especially since the players have indicated this tournament is akin to that of the Olympics or a Stanley Cup Final. But Canada has the pressure of three consecutive best-on-best championships – and five straight on North American soil dating back to 1996.

Plus, even though the U.S. has been hit by the injury/illness bug – lockdown defenseman Charlie McAvoy was ruled out of the game – it still has the skill to match Canada’s. Plus, the Americans proved in the first game they have a clear advantage in goal, since Connor Hellebuyck is the likely Vezina Trophy winner and presumed championship-game starter Jordan Binnington has been shaky at best in the tournament (.892 save percentage; 2.60 GAA).

Don’t be stunned if the U.S. wins in a similar style by playing a composed, defensive style and squeezing 2-3 goals past Binnington. Maybe it will be 4-2 instead of 3-1, but the Americans should be more favored and should win. 

Four Nations Face-Off Total Bet

Under 5.5 Goals (-120)

There is the potential for a higher-scoring finale, since Canada coach Jon Cooper could be more inclined to pull Binnington earlier if his team is trailing. 

But the Americans bought into coach Mike Sullivan’s structure, proven by their virtuoso defensive performance Saturday. The case could be made that they were even more impressive by limiting Sweden to just two goals and 23 shots with a short-handed defense corps and backup goalie Jake Oettinger in net.

It is fair to be leery of Canada’s ability to keep the puck out of its net, since it has surrendered three goals in every game – and has scored 10 goals in the tournament. But with Hellebuyck in goal, Canada may allow 3-4 goals and the Under still may hit.

Four Nations Face-Off Prop bets

Matt Boldy First Goalscorer (+2500)

Boldy may not be a household name, since his youth (24) and club team (Minnesota Wild) have not offered him the same exposure as US stars like Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes or the Tkachuk brothers. But Boldy is emerging as a breakout star for American hockey since he has had an excellent tournament on both sides of the rink. He is tied for fourth on the U.S. in points (3), scored the game-winning goal in the Americans’ 6-1 win against Finland and had an assist on Dylan Larkin’s game-winner against Canada.

Boldy has points on the second goal the U.S. has scored in two of its three games, and with BetMGM’s Second Chance, if you bet Boldy to score first, and he scores second, bettors would get their stake back as a bonus bet credit. 

Boldy seems more inclined to score, since this is a game for role players to stand out, so an anytime goal (+500) is a valuable play too. The top lines could wash out, even though Canada star Connor McDavid scored in the first game, and with the Americans falling short of 100%, Boldy could play a bigger role – especially, potentially on the power play.

Canada Under 2.5 Team Goals (+100)

The Canadians have scored nine goals against teams that were not the U.S., but they only beat Hellebuyck once in their showdown against the U.S. on Saturday night.

Even though the Canadians are rife with skill, and McAvoy was playing the matchup role against McDavid,  the U.S. structure has been sound all tournament. Plus, Hellebuyck is hard to beat.

At Even odds, taking the Canadians to score at most one extra goal than Saturday is phenomenal odds.