10 Longshots to Target at the 3M Open

In my full predictions for this week’s 3M Open, I listed Sam Stevens (+5500), Kurt Kitayama (+5500), Jake Knapp (+7500) and Seamus Power (+8000) as potential outright selections, each of whom checks a box as a longshot in many places.

Not here, though.

At a tournament where Michael Thompson won at 125/1 in 2020 and Cameron Champ mirrored that result from the same price the very next year, there’s some rationale behind looking into the triple-digit numbers for some serious longshots.

Here are 10 who could each make the case to be on your card this week.

10 Longshots to Target at the 3M Open

Andrew Putnam (+10000)

Well, lemme tell ya: The original draft of this article looked pretty nice with the inclusion of Lucas Glover at 100/1 during a time of the season when he often heats up. But alas, Glover withdrew from the tourney late Monday afternoon, so I’ve replaced him with Putnam, who fits the ol’ NFL Draft axiom of “Best Player Available,” though admittedly perhaps not one whose game specifically suits this golf course.

Pierceson Coody (+10000)

With two top-fives in his last five starts, including a playoff loss at the ISCO Championship, one of the Coody twins looks to be more ready to contend at this level than the other. At 11th in driving distance this season, his power should be a major advantage this week.

Hayden Buckley (+12500)

Past performance isn’t a predictor of future success, however, there’s reason to believe that Buckley’s seventh-place finish at the Barracuda, just his second in the past 15 months, could lead to another. His iron play last week was far and away his best of the year and a top-10 when losing strokes with the wedges and putter should indicate that there’s plenty of room for improvement. He was T-26 in his only previous 3M start two years ago.

Matthew NeSmith (+15000)

If you think the likes of Corey Conners and Tom Hoge are confounding – players who hit the ball as well as anyone, but rarely make a lot of putts – then NeSmith has been downright mind-boggling throughout his career. His iron play has actually dipped to a much lower level this year, which accounts for his poorer results, but a playoff loss at the ISCO suggests he might be ready to turn things around.

Nick Hardy (+15000)

Yet another player who hits it really well and putts it like, well, you and I. A return to his Midwest roots could help the Illinois native this week, as he was T-13 at this event last year.

Luke List (+15000)

There’s no way to sugarcoat it, the results have been bad lately. Seven MCs in his last eight starts, with just a T-67 at the Rocket Mortgage to break ‘em up. That said, he wasn’t exactly trending in a great direction when he won last year’s Sanderson Farms or finished runner-up at this year’s Genesis Invitational. There’s a ceiling here, even if he doesn’t reach it very often.

Adam Schenk (+15000)

An emerging talent, with two runner-up finishes last season, Schenk’s recent performance has mirrored a lot of other players on this list, which is why he’s tagged with such a big price. His only made cuts in his last nine starts have been a pair of events without one and while I have no illusions he’ll figure it all out this week, I’m still mildly intrigued by the price.

Troy Merritt (+20000)

Another who tends to pop up in these inferior-field Midwest-based events, Merritt is over the putting yips which he’d dealt with last summer and he’s gained strokes with his irons in five of his last six starts.

Kelly Kraft (+40000)

Lost amongst Justin Thomas’ 68-78-67-77 and Aguri Iwasaki’s 74-91 at The Open was wild swing of Kraft, who opened with a 64 at the Barracuda Championship, then posted a second-round 80 to miss the cut. The latter is the reason his price remains where it is, but the former should at least offer a little hope from this number.

Ben Taylor (+75000)

Even at this massive price, it would’ve been ridiculous to mention Taylor’s name as recently as a few weeks ago, considering he’d missed the cut in 16 of his last 17 starts dating back to last year (and the one made cut was a T-64). He’s now cashed a check in his last three, a T-6 at the ISCO sandwiched by a pair of top-50s. There’s still plenty of reason to simply ignore him, but he’s at least shown some signs as the longest of longshots.