10 Longshots to Target at the Wyndham Championship

For regular longshot bettors, Jim Herman represented everything we’re seeking on a weekly basis.

The perfect storm. The ultimate lottery ticket.

This was four years ago when the longtime PGA Tour member opened with 600/1 odds at the Wyndham Championship.

Weekend rounds of 61-63 gave Herman a third career title – and it gave longshot bettors hope for a promising tomorrow.

After all, if you’d bet just a mere $1,920 on Herman, your winnings would’ve matched his $1.152 million paycheck at the end of the week.

This year’s edition of the Wyndham might not yield such a longshot, but there’s reason to dip into the lower tier for a few outright plays. Let’s get to a bunch of my faves, starting with an intriguing group at 80/1.

10 Longshots to Target at the Wyndham Championship

Ben Griffin (+8000)

This week might offer the most palatable outright market that we’ve seen for a PGA Tour event all year. On Monday morning – and these things change, of course; often rapidly – Sungjae Im opened as the favorite at 14/1, and nobody else was shorter than 25/1. That suggests some value at the top of the board, but the reality is that it permeates throughout the entire field.

At an event that has seen four winners in the past half-decade who were priced between 35/1 and 100/1, averaging just over 60/1 (which excludes the excessive outlier in Herman), there’s some rationale behind the idea of eschewing those favorites, most of whom usually have an eye toward the impending FedEx Cup playoffs anyway. All of which has me looking further down the list for my first outright this week, as the number next to Griffin’s name is too good to pass up.

The story is the stuff of a too-good-to-be-true Hollywood script: Just a few short years ago, Griffin had given up on professional golf, working as a loan officer before deciding to give his dream one last shot. The fact that he’s back in his home state of North Carolina this week would give this tale a perfect ending should he win, an idea which isn’t as far-fetched as the rest of the plotline. The UNC grad has now gained strokes with his irons in eight consecutive starts, a span which includes a pair of top-five finishes.

Andrew Novak (+8000)

Consider Novak the type of player whose popularity has benefited by playing in the current era, with legalized gaming available here in the U.S. While a large subset of golf fans might still not recognize his name, most golf bettors are keenly aware of his skillset.

He’s a guy who ranks 21st in SG: Total this season, just ahead of Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry, who take up the four spots atop this week’s board, plus the NC native is easily inside the top-half in every major strokes gained category.

Mackenzie Hughes (+8000)

Those of us who attempt to prognosticate golf tournaments on a regular basis tend to weigh ball-striking statistics heavier than short game and putting, because the former has been proven more sustainable from week-to-week than the latter. There are exceptions to this rule, however, and Hughes is amongst them – a player whose wedge game and putter remain at a consistently high level.

Despite MCing in each of his last two appearances at this one, it feels like the Canadian is building up to something, with six top-20 finishes in his last 13 starts. His baseline tee-to-green game is often about field-average, so it might be too much to expect a Scottie Scheffler-like ball-striking performance, which means we’ll need that red-hot putter to go absolutely nuclear. If anyone can do it, it’s Hughes, who’s gained strokes with the flatstick in 12 of those aforementioned last 13.

Adam Hadwin (+8000)

Truth be told, I wasn’t really considering Hadwin until I spied the number next to his name. Opening at 80/1 is enough to get me interested, as – much like Hughes – this might be one final opportunity to impress International captain Mike Weir and claim a spot on the Presidents Cup team in his home country of Canada.

He doesn’t play in Greensboro every year, but a T-10 finish here a few years ago and some decent performance data in recent starts have me intrigued at this price.

Seamus Power (+8000)

Before I delve too far into this piece, I should probably offer the weekly caveat that these are all just longshot options; I’m not imploring you to blindly play each one of these. Like Hadwin, Power is a player who simply feels like he’s too talented in this specific field to have such big odds next to his name. He’s yo-yo’d for the past few months between playing some really strong golf, then tailing off, then finding it again, so the consistency isn’t quite there, but if you’re merely number-hunting this week, he’s another who makes sense.

Lucas Glover (+10000)

Playing the defending champion at any event is akin to throwing a few chips at the repeat number on the roulette wheel. Glover has the ignominious honor of needing a big week at Greensboro again just to be able to defend his title in Memphis at the first FedEx Cup playoff event next week. He’ll first defend this one, where leading the field in iron play would be a nice start toward going back-to-back.

Matthew NeSmith (+15000)

It can be stated that every non-Scheffler (and perhaps non-Schauffele) event is an opportunity to delve deeper into the odds, but this one feels especially wide open, which should have us landing on some triple-digit options in the outright market. By all measures, it’s been a fairly unimpressive campaign for NeSmith. His approach play has dropped from a ranking of 11th on the PGA Tour in 2021 to 30th in 2022, 56th last year and a below-average number of 109th this season.

For a player who relies on strong iron play to retain his status each year, this sharp decline has left him in limbo, currently ranked 120th on the points list. It’s still a much better place than he was at just a month ago, prior to a playoff loss at the ISCO Championship and a T-9 at the 3M Open. His approach play was much improved at each of those events, but it was a hot putter which really impressed, even showing out during an MC at the Barracuda Championship that was sandwiched by those top-10s. His record in Greensboro isn’t much to shout about, but a Southeast course with Bermuda greens should be as much in his wheelhouse as we’ll ever see.

Justin Lower (+15000)

As noted in my Wyndham preview piece this week, Lower is more preferred as a single-round investment, as he ranks 12th in R1 scoring average this season, but not better than 94th in any of the other three. I do, however, think he has the tools to win a smaller type of event in the next year or so. That might come during this fall’s portion of the schedule or at an alternate-field event next season, but it would hardly be a shock at this one.

Gary Woodland (+20000)

There were rumblings recently that Woodland is gradually starting to feel like his old self following last year’s brain surgery to remove a legion. That’s good news for reasons that extend well beyond his betting prospects, but in a year which brought us some great storylines, it would only be appropriate if the regular season ends with what would wind up being the best of the bench, without question. Despite being a big hitter off the tee, Woodland has often excelled on shorter courses such as Sedgefield, where he doesn’t need to hit driver too many times. He’s not exactly trending toward a win, but going from MC to T-67 to T-50 to T-37 in his last four starts is at least moving in the right direction.

Patton Kizzire (+25000)

When it hasn’t been good for Kizzire this year, it really hasn’t been good. When it has been good, though, it’s been really good, all of which is evidenced by just eight made cuts in 17 total starts, but six of those eight inside the top-25. The iron play has remained solid, and while most other aspects of his game are lacking, that’s at least a decent starting point on this golf course.