The American Express Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

One year ago this week, a middle-of-the-road early-season PGA Tour event with a less-than-elite field went from buried behind the stories about NFL playoff games in the sports news cycle to being front and center in the conversation.

Alright, so maybe professional golf didn’t exactly supplant football as the weekend’s biggest headline, but not since the days of David Duval posting a final-round 59 in Palm Springs a quarter-century earlier had the tournament currently called The American Express burst into the mainstream consciousness as it did.

It was all because of an unassuming 20-year-old named Nick Dunlap, who’d taken a break from his sophomore season at the University of Alabama to play on a sponsor exemption, only to post rounds of 64-65-60-70 to become the first amateur to win a PGA Tour title since Phil Mickelson in 1991.

Despite the presence, once again this week, of legitimate superstars such as Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau, nothing says “wide open” for tournament prognostication like a college kid beating the pros.

Granted, Dunlap was no average college kid and he’s no average pro these days, having already added to his win total late last season to make it a pair of victories before he was legally allowed to buy a beer.

What it does show us is that while some of the big-name players in this field are still just easing their way into this long campaign and other up-and-comers are still getting their feet wet, this is a tourney which is ripe for finding a potential longshot champion.

In fact, here are the odds for winners in the desert over the last half-decade:

Odds For Winners of The American Express

We could’ve gone even further, but 2019 champion Adam Long was such a longshot that his odds were simply listed as a “Field Bet” amongst the other also-rans.

Point is, while I’ll always start these previews with a conservative outright play, don’t be afraid to take some risks in all markets this week. You’ll find plenty of options among my selections.

The American Express Outright Picks

Conservative: Davis Thompson (+4000)

I was extremely bullish on Thompson entering the year, only to see him open with a disappointing T-36 on a golf course (Kapalua) which should suit his game and a less disappointing missed cut on a course (Waialae) which shouldn’t. In each instance, he did his usual damage off the tee – he’s gained strokes with driver in 19 of his last 20 starts – while losing ground to the field with his irons. You might accuse me of reading too much into these performances, but I’m going to give it a try anyway: Both of the host venues in Hawaii require a sense of creativity. 

From the elevation and sweeping vistas of the Plantation Course to the doglegs and tricky winds of Waialae, there are perhaps more variables than at other events. Thompson is about as left-brained as they come on the PGA Tour, almost robotic in his on-course machinations. All of which should help explain his prior success at The AmEx, where he shoulda/coulda/woulda won two years ago and followed up with a T-21 last year. The dome-like conditions and target-golf of these desert courses are perfect for these types of players. Don’t be scared off by those recent results; any better and Thompson might’ve been 15-20 points shorter in the outright market. Instead, we get a bargain price on a big-time talent who’s already shown a propensity in his short career for playing his best golf at this event.

Aggressive: Sam Stevens (+10000)

I kept waiting for Stevens to rocket up last week’s leaderboard, because his ball-striking was on the same level as those in contention. He finished sixth in SG: Approach at Waialae, while four of the top-five in front of him finished inside the top-six on the overall board. The difference between those title contenders and the guy who closed in a share of 59th place, as you might imagine, was the flatstick, as Stevens lost more than a stroke per round on the greens.

That signified his worst putting performance since last February and unless there’s some underlying cause for concern, I’ll chalk it up as an outlier while remaining optimistic about his iron play, which already looks like a stark contrast from last year, when he finished top-75 in off-the-tee, around-the-greens and putting categories, but 143rd in approach. That came during a season which included 25 made cuts in 30 starts, with nearly as many top-10s as missed cuts. Perhaps it all suggests he remains a better floor play than ceiling, though I can’t help but wonder what a plus-performance on the greens would look like if it was combined with similar ball-striking numbers of last week. In fact, I’ll pay to find out.

The American Express Top-5 Picks

Conservative: J.J. Spaun (+800)

It would be way too simple to suggest that Spaun played well last week, came close to winning and we’re just chasing him for a similar result. The truth is, he looked extremely shaky on the back-nine and should’ve (along with playing partner Stephan Jaeger) at least reached the Sony Open playoff, if not won it in regulation.

Finishing one shot back could have left him crestfallen, but instead these were his words after the round: “It was a great week overall. Proud of how I battled all day. … Hopefully I use this momentum going into the rest of the West Coast.” Spaun sounded like he was reading from the same life-affirming book as Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown, which should have him in the right headspace to indeed use that as momentum, rather than hanging his head for a while. Even though his record at The AmEx – last year’s T-25 was his only finish better than 50th in six tries – isn’t anything special, neither was his previous record at the Sony and he played well there. For a guy I prefer backing on his native coast, I don’t mind trying to chase this one.

Aggressive: Mac Meissner (+1200)

Much like Thompson and Stevens listed above, Meissner is another in a growing group of former college stars who have jumped past the “getting acclimated” stage of their PGA Tour careers and are now ready to post some serious results. I won’t profess to know nearly as much about college golf or the recent crop of players as some of my colleagues, but what I do know is that success at every other level of golf usually foreshadows success at the highest level. In sports such as football or basketball, there exists a greater public consciousness of the biggest talents and so there’s little surprise when those athletes start performing well in the professional ranks.

Casual fans – and even plenty of diehards – might not know collegiate golf to that extent, which leads to the inevitable, “Where did this guy come from?” type of query once it happens. As for Meissner, he was the Byron Nelson Award winner while at SMU four years ago and now has finishes of 27th or better in each of his last three starts and seven of his last 10. We can ask the question of where he came from, but the question of where he’s going is a better one. It’s a very bright future which could take another big step forward this week.

The American Express Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Nick Dunlap (+375)

It’s too cliched to suggest that if Dunlap won here as an untested amateur, he can certainly win as a seasoned pro. Instead, I’m writing about him to highlight the curious undervaluation which has been routinely taking place in regard to his price. Take last week, for example: Dunlap, who again owns two PGA Tour titles in the past year, was listed at 80/1, while Luke Clanton, who’s incredibly talented yet remains an amateur, was listed at 35/1. 

I’m not one to doubt the oddsmakers, but those numbers might make more sense if they were reversed – and not that last week should serve as the sole evidentiary proof, but Dunlap finished T-10 while Clanton missed the cut. I remain fairly shocked that the odds haven’t caught up to Dunlap’s career trajectory, but I’m happy to keep buying as they continue to sell low.

Aggressive: Rico Hoey (+650)

I already wrote about Hoey in my season-opening column on players to make “The Leap” and I continue to be bullish on him after the most mediocre of opening weeks. He finished T-59 at the Sony and wasn’t far from field average in every major statistical category. There’s no real reason for optimism nor pessimism, though a let-‘er-rip affair where birdies can be made in bunches had me writing his name down next to this event months ago.

After missing the cut in 10 of his first 15 starts last season, he promptly posted three top-eight results in his next four and didn’t miss a cut in his final 13. Last year’s leader in the Total Driving category owns some major upside and he’s a guy I’ll be backing in some form either for tourneys with inferior fields or those – like this one — which should promote some longshot contenders.

The American Express Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Andrew Putnam (+350)

Digging through last year’s selections for this event, I remember being pretty sure that Putnam was going to do some damage after six consecutive years of top-40 results here. Spoiler alert: He finished T-47. That said, I’m a big fan of betting on oneself in a few different ways, but one of those comes in the form of trusting your research and hunches.

Just as I’m going to pick Tony Finau at Torrey Pines next week for probably the 10th straight year, I don’t have a problem with remaining aboard a lifeboat instead of jumping ship. Putnam is coming off a T-30 last week, during which he gained strokes with his irons, wedges and putter. Much like Spaun, he’s a guy I tend to favor on the West Coast, so I’m going to hope that last year’s vibes were just a bit premature.

Aggressive: Chan Kim (+375)

Love this dude’s game; don’t love that he hasn’t finished inside the top-20 in his last half-dozen starts. That said, his solid play in last year’s rookie campaign seemed to come in bunches, so I’m banking that last week’s T-53 result is simply the soft launch for what should be a very strong sophomore season. He hasn’t quite shown yet that he can seriously contend in a tournament of anything more than alternate-field magnitude, but his top-20 potential is very real and comes with an intriguing price tag.

The American Express Top 40 Picks

Conservative: Joe Highsmith (+125)

I promise I’m not simply cherry-picking all the Pacific Time Zone guys who didn’t shank all their iron shots last week. Highsmith didn’t have the week he would’ve liked, missing the cut at Waialae, but he’s fresh off a fall which might’ve been a game-changer, both in terms of his status on the priority list and his confidence. He finished 16th or better in five or six starts during the late-season portion of the calendar, counteracting a lengthy spring and summer which was largely filled with missed cuts. The Pepperdine product did, however, finish T-34 at this one while mired in that slump, which suggests he should play even better here now that his game seems to be coming around.

Aggressive: Blades Brown (+300)

He won’t turn 18 for another four months, but the kid with the cool name has plenty of game, too. I’m not ready to anoint him the next anything, but won’t be surprised if his progress mirrors that of former teen-pro Akshay Bhatia, who struggled at times during his first few years but as a two-time PGA Tour winner is probably well ahead in his progress of where he would’ve been after four years of college. This game can often be easier for pros who don’t have to worry about such little things as, you know, providing for a family and retaining their employment. Blades can play unburdened once again this week, and I’d expect that to result in some strong play.