BMW Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

If we’ve learned – well, relearned – anything while watching the last two Sunday afternoon back-nines of PGA Tour events, it’s that closing out these things isn’t nearly as easy as it looks.

Oh, and we should save a little golf betting bankroll for the sweatiest of times.

One week after Max Greyserman lost a big lead in Greensboro with a tee shot that went OB and a four-putt, Hideki Matsuyama showed some struggles of his own, parlaying a five-shot lead at one point into a deficit.

Perhaps it was a testament to Matsuyama’s experience in these types of situations that he didn’t suffer the same fate as Greyserman, instead banging home a 26-footer for birdie on 17 and stuffing his approach for another birdie to seal the victory on 18.

There’s a lesson in there for younger professional golfers – something about never giving up, trying to put the poor swings into the rearview mirror and treating every shot with the utmost importance.

There’s also a lesson for bettors: Just when you think it’s probably over, it often isn’t. Those who waited on Sunday could’ve picked up Matsuyama at plus-money to win with just a few holes remaining, and while that might not resonate like a pre-tourney outright, it still pays.

My guess is that we could see some fireworks down the stretch once again this week.

The second of three FedEx Cup playoff events, the BMW Championship will take place at Castle Pines GC in Colorado, which hasn’t held a PGA Tour event since The International was removed from the annual schedule after the 2006 edition.

When the PGA Tour hosts an event at a new venue – or in this case, returns to one after a few decades away – the general theme is that officials will err on the side of caution when it comes to course setup. My best guess is that when a sponsor ponies up the money and a club opens up its doors, the last thing anyone wants is for the competitors to be bitching and moaning about how difficult it played. 

Throw in the fact that we’ll see booming drives in the Rocky Mountain elevation on a track that won’t play nearly as long as the 8,100-plus yards on the scorecard, and there should be plenty of birdie opportunities, all of which could manifest itself in a sprint to the finish line come Sunday afternoon.

Don’t be surprised to see the usual cast of characters serve as the main protagonists once again. Wherever this tournament has been held over the past half-decade – from Medinah to Olympia Fields, Caves Valley to Wilmington – we haven’t had to travel too far down the board to find an eventual champion.

BMW Championship History

With that in mind, I’m similarly staying within the top-tier range for my outright selections at this one. Let’s get to ‘em.

BMW Championship Outright Picks

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+2000)

As I often write in these previews and say on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show, bettors who feel “burned” by outright picks that don’t cash usually banish them to the nether regions of their portfolio, like a child who decides they no longer enjoy their favorite toy. The reality is, though, if you do your research and find a player to bet one week, he’s probably still an option in ensuing weeks, as well. 

Cantlay was my favorite play for last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship and while – spoiler alert! – he didn’t win, a slow start turned into a very efficient weekend, with a pair of 66s and much improved ball-striking numbers. I’m not sure I place too much importance on him winning two of the last three editions of this tournament on the other side of the country from where they’ll be this week, but I suppose a body clock reminder couldn’t hurt.

This is more about getting a decent price on a guy who’s played well enough to win this year and has shown a propensity for stepping on the gas pedal late in the season.

Aggressive: Wyndham Clark (+2800)

While I listed Cantlay’s name first to fit the usual theme for the preview, Clark is my favorite outright play on the board. This is one I’d initially tabbed before the season even started. I’m a sucker for a good narrative, and the Colorado native has never played a PGA Tour event in his home state, which should provide a little additional motivation this week.

But the fact that my original thought for this tournament is now trending in the right direction only makes this play more appetizing. It’s been a strange season for last year’s U.S. Open champion, who won the weather-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, then one month later finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship. 

His next seven starts – which included the year’s first three majors – featured just a T-3 at the RBC Heritage as his lone top-30 result, but he’s since regained that previous form, finishing 14th or better in four of his last five starts, including a T-7 last week on the strength of a 67-64 weekend. If it sticks – and that’s a big if, so jump on it early – this 28/1 price offers a ton of value for a high-ceiling candidate.

BMW Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Xander Schauffele (+100)

I was in the car for a few minutes during the latter part of last week’s final round, listening to the live radio broadcast. My pal Dennis Paulson made a terrific point about Schauffele looking more comfortable in high-pressure situations than he once did. Remember: Prior to his PGA Championship victory, the criticism around Schauffele was that he owned all the talent in the world but often struggled to close.

Whether having a pair of majors in his back pocket has allowed him to feel like he’s playing with house money or emboldened him to reach a new comfort level in these situations, there’s a palpable difference between the guy who once looked a bit nervy down the stretch and now appears like he’s playing a Tuesday practice round. Following last week’s T-2, I like Xander to post another top-five, at the very least. 

Aggressive: Sungjae Im (+600)

The playoff events often offer repeatable results, with some players simply staying hot for a few weeks at a time. There are plenty of exceptions to that rule, though, and unlike the first three names listed in this piece, Im wasn’t anywhere close to the leaderboard last week. While he finished T-40, he did produce positive numbers in both approach play and putting, which is a nice combo to bring to Colorado.

And we’re not necessarily looking for an outlier this week, but rather hoping last week was more of the outlier, as he’d finished top-12 in seven of his previous 10 starts.

BMW Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Tommy Fleetwood (+180)

Speaking of negative outliers, Fleetwood finished a mere T-22 last week – his worst result on North American soil since the PGA Championship. That’s hardly anything to cry about, and the truth is, his performance offered plenty of reason for positivity, as he led the field in strokes gained tee to green, but ranked dead last in putting. As usual, it’s tough to back him for a ceiling, but he’s a high-leverage floor play every time he tees it up.

Aggressive: Eric Cole (+450)

It’s impossible to not love what the plucky Cole has done recently. After a swoon that included no top-30 finishes in a dozen starts between March and June, last year’s ROY has now been top-20 in four of his last six. While the ball-striking has improved, he’s posted positive strokes gained numbers both around the greens and on them in each of those last half-dozen appearances, which has made a massive difference. 

Cole only made it into this week’s field based on a final-round 63 which vaulted him up the points list and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him put together another big performance to creep into the top-30 and make the Tour Championship.

BMW Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Davis Thompson (+105)

Look, I could sit here and implore that Scottie Scheffler is a wonderful top-20 play in this 50-man field, then pat myself on the back on social media Sunday evening for “another win.” But that wouldn’t do you any good to hear that the world’s best player should play pretty well, and it sure as hell wouldn’t do me any good to crow about it. Anyway… I still believe (much like in last week’s 70-player event) there’s inherent value in a plus-money play to beat just 60% of the field. It’s not too sexy and you won’t be able to brag about it at the 19th hole, but there’s nothing wrong with beefing up the bankroll. 

My first play in this area is Thompson, who has the look of an impending superstar. He hits it a long way and shows virtually no emotion on the course, which might not make him the most fun guy to watch, but does make him seem like Ludvig Aberg Lite when it comes to highly-touted youngsters. There are some unknown variables at a course which hasn’t hosted an event in two decades, but moving the ball a long way off the tee – especially in some altitude – should always be beneficial.

Aggressive: Thomas Detry (+170)

It’s not a perfect comparison, but Detry owns a lot of the same attributes as Thompson and they both own a lot of the same attributes as Clark, which is to say, they hit the ball a long way and roll it really well. We often look toward classy, consistent iron players for sustainability from one week to the next, but there’s something to be said for those who figure it out from the outside-in, with a proficiency for solid numbers with driver and putter, then figuring out the rest of the game from there.

BMW Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Aaron Rai (+3300)
Aggressive: Alex Noren (+4500)

I’m grouping these two guys together as this year’s FRL favorites – the guys we’ve probably played more than anyone else. There’s good reason for that. While the top-three on the R1 scoring average list reads Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, the next two are Noren (68.79) and Rai (68.82). At this point of the season, as we enter the penultimate week, we know who the hot starters are. Might as well stick with ‘em for as long as we can.