Butterfield Bermuda Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

If we’ve learned anything during the five-year history of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

Just watch where the golf balls are headed.

The wind will, by all literal definitions, be out of the northwest at traditionally gusty Port Royal Golf Course this week. While these things can change without notice, my weather app is showing three—or four-club gusts for much of the proceedings, meaning that once again, those best suited to successfully navigate the conditions will be on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

That ability, as well as the cozy confines of a 6,828-yard venue, has me examining recent editions of this tournament as the greatest predictive barometer – or more precisely, I’ll weigh course history a little heavier in relation to recent form than I usually do.

Winners of this one include relative short-ball hitters Camilo Villegas, Brian Gay and Brendon Todd, and those who are predisposed to breezy conditions in Irishman Seamus Power and Australian Lucas Herbert.

With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s golf betting selections, as always from both a conservative and aggressive perspective. 

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Andrew Putnam (+3300)

Over the past few years, there is perhaps no PGA Tour pro who most impresses with the blind resume test than Putnam. Oh, don’t get me wrong: There are obviously many, many players who have enjoyed more success than the Washington native, but simply look at his results and you’ll be pleasantly surprised at how good he’s been without seriously contending more frequently. 

This year, his record includes 18 made cuts in 25 starts, with two top-10s and seven top-25s – enough to earn more than $2 million so far. He’s done all of this while ranking second-to-last in driving distance, which obviously shouldn’t be a factor this week. Throw in the fact that those two top-10s came at Waialae and Bay Hill, where the wind often kicks up, and there are some nice correlations to suggest that Putnam can contend at this one, where he finished T-21 in his only previous appearance.

Aggressive: Kevin Streelman (+8000)

In his last seven starts, Streelman has opened with an average score of 66.71. That’s the good news. In those instances, though, he’s followed with an average second-round total of 72.57, which isn’t such good news. In fact, only one of those Friday scores has been sub-70 and none have been better than within three strokes of his previous day’s number. 

You might be more interested in playing him for a first-round leader wager than an outright, and I can’t say I’d disagree with that strategy. My idea for a four-round investment hinges on the fact that it’s not like he’s searching for something. The scores have been there recently, even if they’ve been consistently inconsistent. And while I realize that playing a tournament debutant flies in the face of what I wrote in the intro, the 46-year-old owns enough experience to overcome any notion that he’ll need some time to figure out this place. 

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Justin Lower (+450)

One year ago, Villegas parlayed a previous-week runner-up finish into a victory in Bermuda. Fresh off a career-best runner-up of his own, Lower is steamrolling into this one with plenty of momentum, as well. I’ve believed for a couple of years now that he is going to win a PGA Tour event, most likely one with a field such as this, at least to start. 

I also believe that the success of the PGA Tour’s fall schedule is largely predicated on the stories that permeate weekly leaderboards. Knowing his tragic family background, an eventual victory will tug on the heartstrings of even the most casual golf fans, perhaps drawing a small bit of attention away from the NFL if he is to triumph on this particular Sunday afternoon.

Aggressive: Nick Taylor (+650)

In last week’s preview, I referred to Austin Eckroat as my NFL Draft play – in other words, he was the best talent available at his price. All he did, of course, was win that tournament. I feel very much the same way about Taylor, who like Eckroat already has a win this season and is competing without the burdensome load of so many others who are attempting to improve their status this week. There’s also no doubt a lingering snub from the Presidents Cup could serve as motivation, much as it did for Herbert a few years ago. 

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: David Lipsky (+500)

Other than perhaps field favorite Seamus Power and up-and-comer Matti Schmid, there aren’t many in this field with the type of course history/recent form combo as Lipsky. He was T-13 here last year and enters this week on the tail of a T-6 in Los Cabos. Already with a runner-up finish in the fall (at the Procore Championship), this feels like a proper spot for another title contention.

Aggressive: Tyler Duncan (+1400)

It’s going to take a massive leap of faith to add this play to your card, but at least it comes with a similarly massive price. Duncan hasn’t posted a top-10 since last year’s RSM Classic 51 weeks ago, his recent results table scattered with more MCs than numbered placements. So, why am I suggesting him here, other than the long odds? It’s because I’ve long believed Duncan is a specialist on shorter, wind-blown venues, which helps explain his RSM success. The form is very obviously missing right now, but a T-18 in one of his two starts here has me cautiously optimistic that these will be his type of conditions. 

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Joel Dahmen (+260)

Last week, Dahmen was carrying 125/1 outright odds prior to the World Wide Technology Championship. A share of 14th place – his best finish since early-June – has essentially cut those odds in half this week, which shouldn’t have us too excited to chase it. I am excited about his game, though, as I think a back-against-the-wall mentality could be exactly what he needs to continue playing some high-quality golf. Playing him for a second consecutive top-20 makes a ton of sense here.

Aggressive: Francesco Molinari (+700)

Once one of the game’s best ball-strikers, the 2018 Open Championship only resembles a shell of his former self inside the ropes these days, his last top-40 finish on any tour coming in Dubai back in mid-January. With that in mind, I’m certainly not suggesting you mortgage the farm on this play – and if anything, he might be better used as a plus-money top-40 than top-20 – but it’s a course which should suit his style, if his style can somehow immediately return to any semblance of what it was a half-decade ago. 

Butterfield Bermuda Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Mark Hubbard (+5000)

A rabid Denver Broncos fan, Hubbard spent much of Sunday afternoon retweeting comments about the Kansas City Chiefs getting too much help from the referees in their last-second win over his squad. I can sit here and try to argue that such anger will serve as immediate first-round motivation for Hubbard, but I’m not sure it matters. What does matter is that he’s played here four previous times and owns a 63 and 65 among his 14 scores, suggesting he knows how to go low on this golf course.

Aggressive: David Skinns (+9000)

If there was no analytics, no data, not even any Internet sites to prove us wrong, I’d make the case that Skinns is an opening-round all-star based solely on the anecdotal evidence that it feels like he climbs a lot of Thursday leaderboards. We do have data, though, and it shows that Skinns’ first-round average of 69.68 ranks 45th on the PGA Tour and is by far his best scoring day. In his last 12 openers, he’s broken 70 eight times, including a 60 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and a 62 at the RBC Canadian Open.