PGA Tour Expert Picks: Early PGA Championship Outright Bets

Before the PGA Championship gets underway from Valhalla Golf Club, I’m here to break down a few early outright picks for 2024’s second major championship. 

On the heels of his second Masters win in April, Scottie Scheffler (+350) is the favorite to win at Valhalla. Entering the championship, Scheffler has won four of his last five starts. 

Only four other players are +1500 or shorter to win the event — Rory McIlroy (+1200), Brooks Koepka (+1400), Jon Rahm (+1400) and Ludvig Aberg (+1400). 

Below, bettors can find my two outright selections for the year’s second major based on PGA Championship odds. 

Xander Schauffele (+1800)

For the second consecutive major championship, I’ll have a bet on Schauffele to claim his first major title. 

That’s because Schauffele has historically excelled on long setups. Since the beginning of 2023, he’s third in SG: TOT on courses over 7,400 yards and fifth in SG: T2G. 

Although he didn’t feature the last time Valhalla hosted the PGA Championship in 2014, bettors can use some correlative courses to project Schauffele’s finish. 

He finished second at Quail Hollow in 2023, owns two straight top-10s at the Masters and posted three top-15 finishes in his last four starts at Torrey Pines. 

In terms of his PGA Championship form, Schauffele has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five starts. 

Plus, Schauffele has recorded strong underlying metrics in key stats that inform success at Valhalla. 

He’s second in Par 4 Efficiency this season — including fourth on holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards — and fourth in Par 5 Efficiency. 

As a result, Schauffele is worth a bet at +1800.

Wyndham Clark (+2500)

Valhalla presents a different course profile to LACC, where Clark won a major championship in 2023. 

However, Clark has shown he can excel equally on long and short courses. 

He claimed a win at Quail Hollow in 2023 and finished second to Scheffler at Bay Hill earlier this year. 

Additionally, following a slow start in January, Clark has quietly posted four top 5 finishes in his last eight events, including a win at Pebble Beach. 

Clark has also demonstrated a keen ability to play his best on the most challenging courses. 

Since the beginning of the 2023 PGA Tour season, he’s third in SG: TOT under “difficult” scoring conditions. 

Consider only difficult courses over 7,400 yards, and bettors will find he’s fifth in SG: TOT and sixth in SG: T2G.

Finally, Clark has posted strong records in key stats this year — fourth in Par 4 Efficiency, sixth in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and 15th in Par 5 Efficiency. 

Based on those outputs, Clark is worth a bet to capture his second major championship.