PGA Championship 2025: Expert Picks at Quail Hollow

Just over a month after the 2025 Masters, golf bettors can now turn their attention to the 2025 PGA Championship. 

Current golf odds rate Scottie Scheffler (+450) as the favorite to win at Quail Hollow. He’s trailed closely on the odds board by Rory McIlroy (+500). 

Recent movement saw Bryson DeChambeau (+1100) enter the week next on the board. After DeChambeau, five players — including defending champion Xander Schauffele — are priced between +1800 and +2000. 

Let’s dive into my PGA Championship predictions and expert picks for May. Odds are reflective at time of writing. 

PGA Championship Odds

PGA Championship Picks

Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)

Not too long ago, DeChambeau’s LIV counterpart Brooks Koepka earned the title as the major killer. 

Maybe it’s time we reassign that title to DeChambeau. 

Including a near miss at Augusta National this past weekend, DeChambeau has now recorded four top-10s in his last five major championships. 

Over his last nine major championships, DeChambeau owns five top-10s and four top-5s. 

One such success came last year at Valhalla, the most correlative course to Quail Hollow, per datagolf.com. 

It’s also a familiar course to DeChambeau. After missing the cut in his first two starts at Quail Hollow, Dechambeau recorded a pair of top-10 finishes in 2018 and 2021. 

For those reasons, I like the current price on DeChambeau to capture a second major title in as many seasons.

Rory McIlroy Top-5 Finish (+100)

I’m not going to overthink it on McIlroy, a four-time winner at Quail Hollow. 

McIlroy relied on the putter at Philadelphia Cricket Club last week, gaining +5.3 strokes with the flat stick. For only the second time this season, McIlroy lost strokes to the field on approach. 

Historically, players contend at the PGA Championship due to a strong putter to complement their ball striking. 

McIlroy has gained at least four strokes putting in four of seven events this season. Each of the last three PGA winners gained at least four strokes putting for the week. 

From a stats standpoint, little flaws plague McIlroy this week. Over the last 50 rounds, McIlroy ranks second in SG: T2G, fourth in bogey avoidance and ninth in Par 5 Efficiency. 

McIlroy simultaneously sits 11th in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and 13th in birdies or better gained. 

All told, McIlroy ranks second in my 50-round model. Given he’s finished fifth or better in two of his last three starts at Quail Hollow, I’ll take the plus money for a top five. 

Patrick Reed Top-10 Finish (+450)

Reed flourished to a third-place finish at Augusta National in April and now arrives at a track where he finished as the runner-up in 2017. 

Reed, who lacks the distance off the tee as some of his field counterparts, surprisingly owns a great record at long courses. 

Since 2023, Reed ranks eighth in the PGA Championship field on “difficult” courses over 7,400 yards. 

While all of those appearances came at Augusta, Reed’s record extends to other long courses. 

A natural correlation exists between Quail Hollow and both Torrey Pines and Riviera. Prior to his LIV move, Reed earned a win at the former with two top-10s in his last three. 

In addition to his runner-up finish at the 2017 PGA Championship, Reed similarly posted strong results at more recent outings at Quail Hollow. 

Reed recorded a top-10 finish in two of his previous three appearances at this track. 

As he arrives this week with two top-10s in his previous three LIV starts, I’ll take a small piece of Reed to secure another top-10 at a major championship.

Xander Schauffele Top-20 Finish (-120)

The price makes this bet feel a bit of a trap, but I love Schauffele’s profile at Quail Hollow. 

Schauffele finished runner-up in each of his previous two appearances at Quail Hollow. Then, he went on to win at Valhalla, the most correlative course to Quail, per datagolf.com. 

What’s most impressive about Schauffele is his record at major championships. Schauffele finished inside the top 20 in each of his last 12 majors. 

Of those 12 top-20 finishes, seven saw Schauffele finish inside the top 10. 

From a metrics standpoint, a lot stands out about Schauffele’s return from injury this season. 

In his last 24 rounds, Schauffele ranks 12th in driving distance, sixth in SG: APP and 10th in bogey avoidance. 

Schauffele also ranks 39th in proximity: 200+ yards and sixth in proximity: 175-200 yards. 

The putter has also improved with Schauffele gaining +3.6 strokes at Philadelphia Cricket Club. That marked his best putting performance since last August. 

As a result, I’ll lay the juice on Schauffele extending his strong record at majors. 

Harris English Top-40 Finish (+140)

English, already a winner on tour this season at Torrey Pines, flies under the radar a bit for the week. 

He claimed an 11th-placed finish at the Truist Championship. That marked his third top-20 in his last four events, including a T-12th at the Masters. 

Over his last nine events, English cashed a top-40 bet six times. The putter spiking has driven a lot of those results, with English gaining at least four strokes putting three times. 

Additionally, English has previously demonstrated success at Quail Hollow. A third-place finish here in 2023 remains his best placement, with a 34th here last season. 

Last year at Valhalla, English placed in a tie for 18th. That marks a pair of top-40s in his last four starts at the PGA Championship. 

In addition to previous success at Torrey Pines, English also excelled at Riviera, another correlative setup. 

Each of his last two trips to the Pacific Palisades saw English finish within this number, including a seventh in 2024. 

Given those outputs, I like the price on English to excel at another long setup. 

PGA Championship Betting Model

• SG: T2G (20%)
• Driving Distance (15%)
• SG: Approach the Green (20%)
• Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
• Bogey Avoidance (10%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards (10%)
• Par 5 Efficiency (15%)