PGA Tour Expert Picks: Early U.S. Open Outright Bets

With a month until the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, I’m here to break down a few early outright picks. 

Scottie Scheffler (+400) is the favorite to win at Pinehurst after winning the Masters and finishing T-8th at the PGA Championship. As of May 20, Scheffler has four tour wins this season. 

Only two other players are +1500 or shorter to win the third major of 2024 — Rory McIlroy (+1000) and Xander Schauffele (+1200). 

Other notable prices include Viktor Hovland (+1600), Brooks Koepka (+2000) and Justin Thomas (+3300). 

Below, bettors can find my two outright selections based on U.S. Open odds. 

U.S. Open Odds — Betting Trend

Before we proceed, here’s a trend to guide your thinking for this outright selection. 

Since Jordan Spieth won the U.S. Open in 2015, seven of the previous nine winners finished T-11th or better at the preceding major. 

The only exceptions are Wyndham Clark, who missed the cut at the 2023 PGA Championship, and Brooks Koepka, who didn’t play the 2018 Masters. 

U.S. Open Outright Pick No. 1

Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)

DeChambeau has flirted with victory at each of 2024’s majors, only to finish second at the PGA and sixth at the Masters. 

However, I’m shocked he’s still available at this price to win at Pinehurst, a course that should suit his game. 

At north of 7,500 yards, Pinehurst is a long setup with eight of 12 Par 4’s extending beyond 450 yards. 

DeChambeau finished first and second, respectively, in driving distance gained at the PGA Championship and the Masters. 

Additionally, he finished seventh or better in Par 4 Efficiency at both majors. 

One other positive to consider with DeChambeau — bettors have seen him excel at some correlative courses. 

He finished T-4th at Oak Hill in last year’s PGA Championship, another Donald Ross design with lengthy Par 4’s and difficult scoring conditions. 

DeChambeau also claimed victory in 2020 at Winged Foot, another Par-70 with the 12 Par 4’s averaging 453.3 yards (Pinehurst Par-4’s average 462.9 yards on average). 

Considering DeChambeau’s length off the tee, it’s likely he’ll face shorter irons into greens. That should help mitigate what I expect to be firm and fast bentgrass greens. 

As a result, he’s worth a bet at 20/1 to claim his second major title and first of 2024. 

U.S. Open Outright Pick No. 2

Viktor Hovland (+1600)

I don’t love the number on Hovland, but there’s a chance this number could shorten by the time he tees off. 

Hovland completely flipped the switch at Valhalla by notching a solo third-place finish. 

That’s his first top-10 in a major championship since the 2023 PGA Championship…..at a Donald Ross design. 

Hovland has always excelled on difficult setups. Since the beginning of last season, he’s fifth in SG: TOT on courses that feature “difficult” scoring conditions. 

Since 2021, he’s tied for fourth in SG: TOT when faced with difficult setups. 

Although his U.S. Open record isn’t brilliant — three top-20s, one missed cut, no top-10s — a T-2 at Oak Hill is enough to quell those concerns. 

Plus, Hovland tied with Xander Schauffele for the low aggregate score last year at East Lake, another Ross design. 

In terms of underlying stats, Hovland’s trending in the right direction. At Valhalla, he finished second in Par 4 Efficiency, fifth in GIRs gained and fifth in SG: T2G. 

With a trip to Muirfield Village looming, Hovland’s game should be in strong form by the time he arrives at Pinehurst. 

For those reasons, he’s worth an early bet to win his first major championship.