- The Genesis Invitational is Feb. 15-18 from Riviera Country Club.
- It is a PGA Tour signature event and tournament host Tiger Woods is in the field.
- Scottie Scheffler (+650) is the favorite to win.
Following the rowdiest week of the year on the PGA Tour with the WM Phoenix Open, the Tour will head to one of the most prestigious courses – Riviera Country Club, located just outside of Los Angeles – for the Genesis Invitational.
Tournament host Tiger Woods is in the field for the season’s third PGA Tour signature event. There are 70 players in the field, which will be cut to the top 50 players and ties, as well as any player within 10 shots of the lead for the weekend.
Riviera Country Club is one of the tougher courses of the year on the PGA Tour, featuring narrow fairways, tight doglegs, unpredictable rough and tricky poa greens.
It also has several signature holes, including the par-5 first hole that is just over 500 yards and downhill, so plenty of birdies and eagles are made. The par-3 sixth has a two-tiered green with a bunker in the middle, and the driveable par-4 10th hole is one of the most challenging short holes players will face all year.
Winning scores have varied over the last several years but typically are between 11 and 19-under. Scores will be closer to the 11-under range if the wind picks up.
Jon Rahm is the defending champion but will not be in the field as he’s a member of LIV Golf.
Players who succeed this week will truly need to have all facets of their games clicking and avoid making bogeys.
Some metrics I will favor include Strokes Gained: Proximity 150+ yards, Good Drives Gained, Bogey Avoidance and Strokes Gained: Putting (poa greens).
Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win at +650, while Woods is +12500.
Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:
Genesis Invitational Prediction
Scheffler is expected to win the Genesis Invitational with a 13.33% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 9.09%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Genesis Invitational Best Bets
Scottie Scheffler +650 Odds to Win
Perhaps no player on the PGA Tour is better tee-to-green right now than Scheffler. It just comes down to his putter. He has three straight top 20 finishes at this event, including a T-7 in 2022. Scheffler has three top six finishes in four starts this season.
Max Homa +1800 Odds to Win
Homa, who grew up just outside of L.A., has dominated this event of late. Since 2020, he’s finished in the top 10 each year, which includes a win and a runner-up. It hasn’t been the strongest start to the year for him, as he is coming off a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open and doesn’t have a top 10 finish in four events.
Genesis Invitational Sleeper Picks
Jason Day +4500 Odds to Win
Day is having a great start to the season with two top 10 finishes, including a T-6 in his last start (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am). He doesn’t have the greatest track record at Riviera but did finish T-9 a year ago. His iron play likely will serve him well this week.
Hideki Matsuyama +6000 Odds to Win
Heath has been an issue for Matsuyama of late, but he seems to be fine, including a T-22 at last week’s WM Phoenix Open. He has a solid history at Riviera Country Club, which includes back-to-back top 10 finishes in 2019 and 2020.
Genesis Invitational Betting Card & Other Predictions
- Collin Morikawa Outright Win +1800
- Ludvig Aberg Outright Win +2000
- Will Zalatoris Outright Win +4000
- Max Homa Top 20 Finish -160
- Wyndham Clark Top 20 Finish +125
In one of my shortest cards of the year, I relied on course history as well as my Fantasy National model.
A number of players could have been selected in the +1400 to +2200 range, but I went with Morikawa, who has two straight top six finishes here. This feels like a place Aberg will do well with his ball striking and getting Zalatoris at that number feels like a steal.
Sure, laying -160 with Homa is a lot, but at a place he’s dominated, he should get this done, especially with a smaller field. Meanwhile, Clark has two top 20 finishes in four starts at this tournament.
Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:
- Max Homa
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Collin Morikawa
- Sam Burns
- Ludvig Aberg
- Beau Hossler
- Viktor Hovland
- Rory McIlroy
- Kurt Kitayama
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