Genesis Invitational 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

It is another big week on the PGA Tour, with the Genesis Invitational, Feb. 13-16.

The annual event hosted by Tiger Woods typically is at Riveria Country Club but had to be moved to Torrey Pines due to the L.A. wildfires.

Since it is a PGA Tour signature event, all of the best players in the game are in the field. Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +400. 

When it comes to golf betting this week, past Genesis Invitationals do not matter, and it’s about past performances at Torrey Pines, specifically the South Course. Torey Pines is the longest course on the PGA Tour.

Key metrics to look at this week include Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Scrambling Gained, Proximity: 200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance, and Strokes Gained: Putting (poa).

Genesis Invitational Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is expected to win the Genesis Invitational with an 18.18% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 12.5%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Genesis Invitational Best Bets

Russell Henley Outright Winner (+4500)

Henley is one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour, playing his way onto the Presidents Cup team last fall.

Specific to this week, early reports indicate the rough is extremely high, similar to a U.S. Open. And Torrey Pines South has played host to a U.S. Open before (2021). Lastly, with nasty weather expected the first few days, this could be a grind of a week.

Henley finished T-13 in that 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines and has five total top 25 finishes at U.S. Opens. He’s also coming off a T-5 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. 

While the 35-year-old has had a terrific career, he’s still looking for that signature win and that could come this week.

Tony Finau Top-10 Finish (+275)

Finau has a terrific course history at Torrey Pines, including six top-10 finishes in 11 starts. While he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open here last month, he shot an opening round 72 on the South Course, and his wife gave birth to their sixth child that weekend. So, he may have been a bit distracted.

The 35-year-old returned two weeks ago at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and had a solid T-13 showing. 

Another thing going Finau’s way this week is his distance. Given Torrey Pines is the longest course on the Tour, historically the longer players have had more success here. It’s also worth noting rain is expected on Thursday and Friday, making the course play even longer.

Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish (+110)

I have a similar logic with Zalatoris this week that I did with Jordan Spieth last week at the WM Phoenix Open.

There was good value on Spieth coming off a poor showing at Pebble Beach on a course he had tremendous success on. That led to a T-4 finish. 

It could be a similar story this week for Zalatoris, who hasn’t done much this year but has had some great past showings at Torrey Pines, including losing in a playoff in 2022. 

Once Zalatoris proves he’s returning to his pre-back surgery self, numbers like this in a top-20 market at an event with a smaller field will not be found.