Genesis Invitational Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Two weeks ago, in advance of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I wrote of the PGA Tour: “This feels like – in the least eloquent terms possible – a really good week to have a really good week.”

The intonation was that on a weekend devoid of professional football on the schedule, it was an opportunity for golf to take center stage and leap back into the consciousness of the mainstream fan. And that’s largely what happened, as one of the game’s biggest stars in Rory McIlroy, triumphed at one of the game’s most iconic venues.

Well, I’m going to double-down on that previous opinion.

This feels like an even better week to have a really good week.

Torrey Pines’ South Course, which is filling in for usual Genesis Invitational host Riviera after the Los Angeles wildfires, might rank a few notches behind Pebble on the iconic scale, but the presence of nearly all of the game’s current elite players should be enough to offset Tiger Woods’ late WD and help sway the post-Super Bowl crowd to the PGA Tour.

Only three weeks removed from the most recent tournament at Torrey South, we should have enough hints as to how the course will play, what attributes are needed to find success and which players are best suited for it.

I’ve got another preview breaking down that specific information, but let’s get to my favorite plays for this one, all from a conservative and aggressive perspective.

Genesis Invitational Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Ludvig Aberg (+2200)

When last we saw Aberg at Torrey Pines, he was leaving a little part of himself on the golf course. Alright, so he was actually, uh… leaving some huge chunks of himself out there, if you catch my drift. The 25-year-old opened with a 63 on the North Course, only to contract a stomach bug that not only dropped him into a share of 42nd place by week’s end, but lingered long enough to knock him out of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the following week, too.

Simply examining those results without knowing the background information might suggest he’s heading in the wrong direction, but I love the idea of backing a player who appeared on the verge of something special before falling ill. Aberg was T-9 at last year’s edition of the Farmers and has bettered the field average in ball-striking numbers on the South Course in both starts, including during those recent rounds with the flu. It’s already evident that Aberg has the stuff to be a generational talent.

I’ve often likened him to Jon Rahm, who once announced himself as a global superstar at this very venue. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if Aberg’s similar prowess off the tee leads to a similar assertion this week. 

Aggressive: Wyndham Clark (+8000)

I’ve written a handful of times already this year about backing players based less on course history and recent form than the simple practice of scanning the odds and seeing which numbers seem too long. It can be stated that the first four winners of this season – Hideki Matsuyama, Nick Taylor, Sepp Straka and Harris English – were all multi-time PGA Tour winners with prices that felt a bit inflated pre-tournament.

Same goes for Nick Dunlap, whose 150/1 outright number once again feels disrespectful for a 21-year-old two-time winner. Nobody, though, has odds that just “feel” wrong more than Clark, who is seventh in the Official World Golf Ranking and owns the 33rd-longest odds in this field. Prior to last week, there could’ve at least been a recency bias-based excuse for this incongruity, considering he’d missed the cut at The American Express and finished T-72 in his title defense at the 80-man AT&T. Once again, though, the 2023 U.S. Open champion showed off his high-ceiling/low-floor tendencies by bouncing back to claim the WM Phoenix Open first-round lead and eventually finish in a share of 16th place.

I’d incorrectly assumed that this result would correct Clark’s odds back to about half of this 80/1 price, but I’ll gladly take the bargain here. Remember: When betting outrights, we’re trying to hit a home run. Second place is the first loser, as they say, so we’re attempting to target those with a massive potential upside. Clark absolutely fits this narrative. He might show us that low floor once again, but he’s more capable of winning than half the players listed above him on the board. At this number, I’ll gladly take my chances on a ceiling performance. 

Genesis Invitational Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Collin Morikawa (+240)

At some point in the not-too-distant future, Morikawa’s ball-striking explosion of the past nine months is going to equate to a victory – and if the putter cooperates, it might just be a Thomas Detry-like victory that’s never really in doubt on the back-nine Sunday. Such conviction in this type of result would have me chasing another player on a weekly basis, but Morikawa’s odds – he’s third-shortest in this week’s field – should leave us being a bit more scrupulous.

He might not admit it, but Morikawa would prefer that his peak week comes at TPC Sawgrass or, certainly, Augusta National, and I’m inclined to try and hold out for playing him outright at either/both of those. All of that said, top-five might actually be a floor play for him in limited fields right now, as he’s cashed these tickets in two of his last four starts and one of two this season. I’ll be upset if I miss out on him during the week when he finally wins again, but I’d rather have a smaller share here and bank on that victory coming soon. 

Aggressive: Daniel Berger (+1100)

I almost left Berger out of this week’s preview for the sole reason that I’m going to be really bullish on him during the upcoming Florida Swing and didn’t want to overload you with too much Berger love. But the fact of the matter is, he’s running hot, I’m running hot picking him and none of us should run away from the heater. Last week, I offered up Berger for this same finishing position play, which he easily cashed by claiming a share of runner-up honors in Phoenix.

I’ll be surprised if he’s not heavily involved in my plan for the Cognizant Classic in a few weeks, but I just couldn’t bypass him at Torrey, where he finished T-7 at the U.S. Open four years ago. That result on Sunday got him into this one, so he should be playing with house money, which is yet another intriguing proposition for a guy who knows how to step on the gas pedal. 

Genesis Invitational Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Tony Finau (+275)

In my preview for the Farmers Insurance Open, I listed Finau as my favorite outright for the easy reason that I always list him as my favorite outright for that event, having backed him for about 10 years now, many of which resulted in top-10 finishes, though no victories.

I’m not sure whether it would be more ironic if he finally wins at Torrey when it isn’t Farmers week or if he finally wins at Torrey when I don’t pick him, but I’m not letting scores of 72-77 that led to a missed cut a few weeks ago deter me from having Finau’s name on the card after so much solid play at this venue over the past decade. 

Aggressive: Davis Thompson (+550)

I’m admittedly pot-committed on Thompson this year, despite only holding a 7-2 off-suit thus far. Prior to the beginning of the season, I had Thompson targeted as a potential two-time winner, Tour Championship competitor and at least in the Ryder Cup discussion. With finishes of 36th-MC-51st-58th-36th, though, he’s been less extraordinary than extra ordinary. If we’re searching for silver linings, they exist – but so do the dark clouds.

In those five starts, he’s gained strokes off the tee and around the greens every time, suggesting that a few parts of his game are leaderboard-ready. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he’s lost strokes with his irons in all five of those starts. As we know, approach play is often the most predictive metric, so I’d be cautious with this one, but I do like the idea of backing him before he starts playing better and the price starts getting shorter, which is absolutely going to happen at some point. 

Genesis Invitational Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Gary Woodland (+210)

Despite what I wrote about Thompson above, I’m not sure there’s a name I’ve listed more in my weekly previews so far this season than that of Woodland, who’s rewarded us with some very solid results. He’s gone 16th-22nd-21st in three starts, either cashing a top-20 ticket or one stroke shy. That doesn’t include the Farmers, where his strong record didn’t get besmirched at all, even if bettors and DFS players didn’t appreciate the late WD before his opening-round tee time. I think he makes up for it with another good one this week.

Aggressive: Nick Dunlap (+260)

As noted above – and in previous weekly previews – I just don’t get the big prices on Dunlap, but I’m not gonna complain about it. He is absolutely a player right now who, like Clark, owns a pretty wide divide between his ceiling and floor. In five starts this season, Dunlap’s T-10 at the Sony Open remains his lone top-30 result. He’s been wild off the tee, which doesn’t portend great things at Torrey, but he’s gained strokes with his irons, wedges and putter in each of his last four starts. If I’m simply number-hunting for a player to finish inside the top 27.8 percent of this limited field, I’ll dive down for this one on Dunlap.

Genesis Invitational First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Eric Cole (+8000)

Thursday’s forecast calls for high temperatures in the upper-50s, gusts of 15 mph and a 90 percent chance of rain, which sounds a lot more fun to watch on TV than to watch in person. It similarly shouldn’t be much fun for those trying to post a score on an already brutally difficult track. I know there’s some advanced data out there which attempts to break down which players are mudders, but I tend to side with those who have SG: Attitude on their side more than anything else.

Cole is a guy who’s played seemingly every mini-tour in the country and didn’t reach the PGA Tour until his mid-30s, which explains why he so often plays like his hair’s on fire, grinding on every shot as much as anyone. On a day which should make Torrey South feel more like a U.S. Open than the Genesis, I’ll take my chances on a grinder. 

Matthieu Pavon (+12500)

There are probably few players more excited about a Farmers mulligan than Pavon. He was the defending champion a few weeks ago, having surprised at Torrey in his rookie season of 2024, but shot 73-80 to miss his only cut of the season so far. During his victory, though, he posted scores of 65-72-69 on the South Course. With the ugly weather expected for the opener this week, anything close to the first of those scores should secure FRL honors and something close to the last of ‘em might even do it. For a player with nearly the longest odds in the field yet success on this venue, I don’t mind taking a shot here.