Hero World Challenge Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

This week’s Hero World Challenge is perhaps more noteworthy for the one name that isn’t part of the field than the 20 that are, despite there once again being plenty of big-time talents.

Tournament host Tiger Woods has decided to skip this edition of his event, following what has been termed “microdecompression surgery of the lumbar spine for nerve impingement in the lower back” just three months ago.

If we’re betting Tiger futures, my answer remains the same as it’s been for the last handful of unknown years: I’m certainly not bullish on him finding more success, but I sure as hell know better than to fade the man, too.

If this notion sounds familiar, that’s because it parallels what I’ve dubbed The Scottie Scheffler Conundrum.

Essentially, we often don’t want to bet Scheffler in full-field events because he’s listed at such a short number, but we also don’t want to not bet him, because, well, he’s really, really good at golf.

Perhaps that’s not such a conundrum this week, though.

Whether “full-field” events are comprised of 156 players, or 120, or just 70, we can all agree that the 20 players in this field make it something much less than full.

With that in mind, let’s get right to the picks, starting with a guy who might actually be a bargain as the favorite.

Hero World Challenge Outright Picks

Conservative: Scottie Scheffler (+250)

During this holiday season, I’ll readily make an admission: I’m terrible at wrapping gifts. By the time I’m done with one, I’ve used an entire roll of wrapping paper and enough Scotch tape to make it look mummified. But hey, stick a bow on top of it, and nobody will care. Another admission I shouldn’t make as readily: I’m terrible at wrapping up the year in golf. 

I’ve been doing this job for two decades and every year I should keep a running list of the weird, wacky and wonderful memories in the game, then by Jan. 10, the idea has already vanished and by now I’ve probably forgotten more moments than I remember. Again, though, you can always just stick a fancy bow on top and make it look pretty. For all the wild stuff that’s happened in professional golf over the past 12 months – and there’s been A LOT of it – nothing would put a bow on the season better than a Scheffler victory. 

Now, I get it. There are reasons to not play him this week; foremost among them, as I wrote about in the intro above, is that short price. Really, though, is +250 against 19 other players that doesn’t include Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy or Collin Morikawa such a bad number? Scheffler was +500 to win the Masters, +450 for the PGA Championship, +325 for the U.S. Open and +550 for the Open Championship. Compared with those odds in full fields at major championships, this actually feels like a value play – especially when we consider his record at Albany GC. Scheffler actually endured a pair of runner-up finishes – heartbreakers, I’m sure – before finally breaking through for a win in his third attempt last year. 

That means he’s faced 57 different opponents here and has beaten 55 of them. If the +250 price is the one reason to bypass Scheffler, then there are too many reasons to play him here. At the same odds as a touchdown underdog on the money line, I like Scottie to go back-to-back.

Aggressive: Sahith Theegala (+1800)

If you do want to go the non-Scottie route, I think Theegala could make the most sense a little further down the board. Though he’s never played this event before, I don’t see that as a negative. It’s a resort course and fairly simple for a pro to figure out. In fact, a debutant might actually have an advantage this week, considering it’ll feel a little more special than it does for those who are used to having this one on the schedule. 

Theegala has also played more competitive golf more recently than most of the big names in this field. Granted, he’s only made two starts in the fall, but of the eight players listed above him on the odds board, four haven’t even teed it up since the Tour Championship in August.

Hero World Challenge Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Scottie Scheffler parlay

I’m not going to reiterate everything I wrote about Scheffler above, but it’s worth a reminder that he’s never finished outside the top-two here. During the 2024 season, the world’s No. 1-ranked player has made 19 starts and finished top-five in 13 of ‘em. At this one, a top-five only requires beating 75% of the field, which feels as close to a sure thing as we get in this game. (Which is to say, still not a sure thing by any means.) 

Obviously, these are extremely short odds, which is why I’m listing him here as a parlay piece with… something. Whatever you like, really. It’s still early in the week, but I like Clemson +2.5 or the Atlanta Falcons +4.5. Whatever you’re on for the coming week, throwing a Scheffler top-five on top of it feels like a nice way to juice the odds a little without having to get overly aggressive.

Aggressive: Akshay Bhatia (+225)

As mentioned earlier, most of the players in this field – and especially most of the big names – either haven’t played in four months or have played very sparingly. Bhatia, though, is fresh off a share of runner-up honors at the Dunlop Phoenix a few weeks ago. 

Over the last few years, he’s done a lot of his damage on windswept resort courses, so this one should suit his style of play. And again, a top-five this week is equivalent to a top-40 in a 156-man field, in that a player only has to beat 75 percent of the competition. That feels doable for Bhatia.

Hero World Challenge First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Justin Thomas (+1000)

The truth is, Thomas was the last player left out of the above selections – and that’s only because I wanted to get creative with the Scheffler top-five pick. In his last four starts at this event, JT has finished top-five every single time. We all know about his relationship with Tiger; we all know it would mean a little something more for him to finally win his buddy’s tournament. 

For a guy who remains hungry at the end of what’s been a much improved yet still winless campaign, I expect him to still have his foot on the gas pedal. With a half-dozen scores of 67 or better in those last four appearances here, look for him to go low right from the start.

Aggressive: Sepp Straka (+2500)

Two years ago, Straka was a last-minute replacement in this tournament for Woods, getting a Monday afternoon call and changing his plans for a trip to the Bahamas. He made six birdies in the opening round just a few days later, posting a 69 for a share of the overnight lead. Well, he had a little more lead time this week – but just a little. 

Tony Finau was a late withdrawal from the field, which once again helped Straka land the final spot. For a guy whose on-course performance has largely been better than the overall results during the past six months, he’s due for some positive regression and that could start with lightning striking for a second time on Thursday.