- Scottie Scheffler (+300) is predicted to win the Houston Open.
- I predict Aaron Rai will continue his strong form and win the Houston Open.
- The case for derivative picks on Thomas Detry and J.J. Spaun
If there’s a word to describe the Houston Open field this week, it’s…..odd.
Scottie Scheffler (+300) and Rory McIlroy (+700) headline the outright odds. Scheffler is still seeking his first win of 2025, while McIlroy will go for a third win at Memorial Park.
A significant dropoff occurs from that point with Aaron Rai (+2500) next on the board. Four other players, including J.J. Spaun and Tony Finau, sit at +3300 on the board.
Let’s dive into my Houston Open picks based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: Houston Open
Aaron Rai (+2500) | Top-20 Finish (+110)
Maybe it’s a cop-out to pick the third player on the board, but Rai is rounding into form at a course where he’s thrived recently.
Rai finished in a tie for seventh last year, his best finish at Memorial Park. In two prior appearances at this track, Rai finished no worse than T-19th.
Over his last three tour events, Rai finished no worse than T-14th, including a top-five finish at the Mexico Open.
Sample his previous 12 rounds, and bettors will find a number of quality signals he’ll contend this week.
For example, Rai ranks fourth in SG: T2G, fourth in SG: OTT and second in SG: APP. He simultaneously leads the field in good drives gained and ranks third in GIRs gained.
Rai also leads the field in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and sits 14th and 13th, respectively, in birdie or better gained and bogey avoidance.
As a result, I like Rai to continue his strong form at Memorial Park and challenge for a win.
Thomas Detry Top-20 Finish (+200)
A debate remains whether I throw a dart on Detry or focus on the derivative markets, but the number is simply too big on a previous winner this year.
Detry followed his WMPO victory with a 53-MC-MC that included a disastrous SG: T2G run. But he bounced back with a T-22 at the Valspar last week and finished T-2 in Houston last year.
While the inconsistency remains a concern, there are positives to point to with the Belgian.
Detry ranks 31st in good drives gained and 18th in GIRs gained over his last 24 rounds.
He’s also third in SG: Putting over his last 50 rounds on Bermuda grass. Irrespective of surface, Detry gained strokes with the flat stick in eight of his last 10 measured events.
He also ranks 25th in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards over his last 24 rounds and sits 16th in SG: TOT on “difficult” course setups in 72 career rounds.
Every winner at Memorial Park gained at least six strokes putting while gaining in all three tee-to-green categories.
If Detry rediscovers his tee-to-green form, I like the buy-low opportunity at a venue where he’s demonstrated previous success.
J.J. Spaun Top-20 Finish (+150)
The course record doesn’t inspire much confidence in Spaun, who has yet to record a top-30 finish at Memorial Park.
But it’s also a chance to buy a strong player who defied a weak course record at TPC Sawgrass two weeks ago.
While that playoff defeat may leave a mark, Spaun’s metrics rank amongst the best in the field.
Over his last 24 rounds, Spaun sits fourth in SG: T2G, including second on SG: APP. He also ranks 10th in good drives gained and sixth in both GIRs gained and Par 3 Efficiency.
Spaun also rates out a top-25 player in both Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards and Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards.
While the putting numbers are average at best – 46th in his last 24 rounds on Bermuda – he sits 22nd and third, respectively, in birdies or better gained and bogey avoidance this calendar year.
Spaun has cashed this ticket in half of his eight events this year, so I like the price on the player who leads my mixed condition model.
Jake Knapp Top-20 Finish (+300) | Top-40 Finish (+115)
Even though Knapp missed the cut in his lone appearance at Memorial Park, it’s my perspective that the course fits his game.
Knapp owns length off the tee – 31st this calendar year in driving distance – and excels with his long irons. This year, he’s 28th in proximity from beyond 200 yards.
But what gives Knapp a strong edge at this tournament is his strength on the greens.
Knapp ranks 12th and ninth, respectively, in bogey avoidance and SG: Putting over this year. Over his last 24 rounds on Bermuda, Knapp ranks 35th in SG: Putting.
To boot, he ranks 15th in SG: APP over his previous 24 rounds and gained in seven of his previous eight starts.
While a -7.7 SG: T2G performance at Innisbrook last week is highly concerning, the profile at Memorial Park is too difficult to ignore.
Given Knapp ranks 13th in a simplified version of the model below, I like the prices on both a top-20 finish and a top-40 output.
Houston Open Betting Model
- SG: T2G (15%)
- SG: OTT (5%)
- SG: APP (10%)
- SG: ARG (5%)
- Good Drives Gained (5%)
- Greens in Regulation Gained (10%)
- Par 3 Efficiency (10%)
- Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards (10%)
- Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 Yards (10%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
- Bogey Avoidance (10%)
