John Deere Classic Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Over the last three years, each winner of the John Deere Classic has owned pre-tournament odds in the 40/1-to-50/1 range, a simple fact which should lead us to one of the following two conclusions:

1. That’s an inherently sensible number to chase for outrights at this event, as the favorites are likely big names just staying loose before another important stretch of golf, but the tier just behind them clearly outclasses the rest of the field.
2. That’s just a coincidence and we shouldn’t exclude everyone who isn’t in that range, especially based on such a small sample size.

I tend to side with the latter theory, but I could certainly make a case that fading the top of the board while not blindly playing a bunch of longshots might be the proper thought process here.

This week, that would’ve meant trying to bypass Patrick Cantlay, who opened as the prohibitive favorite at +800, only to withdraw late Monday morning after the odds were released. Instead, we’re left with Sungjae Im (+1400), Sepp Straka (+1600) and Jordan Spieth (+1800) atop the golf odds board, shortening the prices of many further down, but also opening things up to a potential winner with a bigger number. 

I’ll eschew those names in search of an outright winner amongst the tractors at this one.

John Deere Classic Outright Picks

Conservative: Patrick Rodgers (+6600)

Look, I get it: There’s nothing conservative about an outright ticket on a player who’s 0-for-269 in trying to win on the PGA Tour. I’ll have a few more cautious finishing position plays below, but this tourney could/should be ripe for a bigger number. Enter Rodgers, who was runner-up here in 2017, one of many close calls for a guy who looked like a surefire winner coming out of Stanford, where he tied Tiger Woods’ victory record and was the world’s No. 1-ranked amateur player. 

Personally, I could’ve lost a lot of money betting that he’d own at least one title by his 10th season in the big leagues, but at 32, he’s hardly past his prime and there are some signs it could be coming. In his last two starts at the Travelers Championship and Rocket Mortgage Classic, Rodgers posted seven consecutive rounds in the 60s before a final-round 76 this past Sunday.

Starting the card with a player at 66/1 should allow us some freedom to take a few more chances – and for a tourney that starts on the Fourth of July, freedom sounds like a great way to go.

Aggressive: Patton Kizzire (+10000)

The old notion that all a player needs to do is make more putts than the other guys has been displaced by advanced analytics, which prove that the long game is more important than the short game. More often than not, however, it’s what happens in between driver and putter which represents the greatest delineation between success and failure.

It should come as no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is far and away the PGA Tour leader in SG: Approach, easily ranking as the best iron player. Just behind him is a group of players who have enjoyed different degrees of success this year – Tom Hoge, Tony Finau, Core Conners, Xander Schauffele, Aaron Rai and Keith Mitchell – though not one whose presence on the list would shock hardcore golf observers. The first revelation on this ranking would be Kizzire, who ranks eighth this year, which means he’s been hitting his irons better than Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas.

Perhaps the proof of this stat’s relevance comes in the fact that Kizzire really isn’t doing much else very well, yet he’s still finished top-30 in five of his last six starts. That falls in line with his John Deere record, which shows four top-30s in five appearances. With a triple-digit price next to his name, I like taking the small chance that Kizzire’s irons stay hot this week and the driver/putter combo cooperates a little more than usual. 

John Deere Classic Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Sepp Straka (+320)

The defending champion is back – and he’s playing much better than he was at this point a year ago. Not only will Straka have some good vibes in his return to Silvis, Ill., this week, he’s finished top-10 in four of his last seven individual starts and three of those have been top-five. Looking back at his win from last year, there are two things we can learn which should help shape our plays this week.

One is that tournament history shouldn’t matter too much, as he’d finished 26th-MC in two starts before the win; and the other (possibly more important) is that he opened with a 73, then posted scores of 63-65-62, which suggests we should take a good long look at the board on Thursday night and potentially try to identify a few players whose odds have increased, but can still go low.

Aggressive: Michael Kim (+1400)

Consider this our Cam Davis pick of the week – a former champion returning to the scene of the crime after some struggles with his game. Following his 2018 victory, Kim’s performance took a serious downward spiral, but one of golf’s best tweeters has also figured things out inside the ropes, posting top-20 results in four of his last seven starts. If we think he’s going full Davis, he could be worth an outright this week, as well, but top-five is the play here. 

John Deere Classic Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Denny McCarthy (+225)

For those who take “conservative” to the max and don’t want to sprinkle on risky outrights that can hurt the overall ROI, McCarthy for a top-10 might be my favorite no-doubt-about-it* selection of the week. (*Which still, of course, comes with plenty of doubt.)

On a course that doesn’t require too much length, with conditions which will require contenders to make nearly two dozen birdies this week, I love the idea of a cautious play on one of the game’s best putters at an event where he’s finished in sixth place each of the last two years.

Aggressive: Beau Hossler (+400) and Justin Lower (+700)

Offering up two more selections at different prices in this market. Hossler is a player who – dare I suggest it – has underachieved in his career, which might be a theme for this week, with players such as Rodgers and McCarthy also listed here. He might be the anti-Kizzire, in that his iron play has been below field average in 12 out of 15 measured starts this year, but his short game and putting have both been fantastic.

Lower is a guy who started to get a little warm earlier this season but cooled off before he really heated up. There’s not much in either his recent form or course history which should suggest imminent success, making this one more of a play on his overall abilities and inflated price than anything else.

John Deere Classic Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Troy Merritt (+350)

Sometimes, all of the research comes down to this: Merritt was 17th at last year’s John Deere and 17th last week in Detroit. Both of those numbers are inside the top-20, so I’m listing him for a top-20 this week.

OK, so maybe it’s not that easy, but Merritt was on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show prior to last week’s opening round and he just sounds so full of optimism and positivity. For a guy who struggled with the putting yips as recently as last summer, he’s another hoping for that full-circle comeback at some point.

Aggressive: Zac Blair (+600)

While he doesn’t have an individual top-20 yet this year, Blair has at least been knocking on the door recently, with results of T-24 and T-26 in his last three starts. Though he doesn’t have much of a record to shout about at this one, his best performances throughout his career have often come on shorter venues. This one isn’t without plenty of trepidation, but you won’t find many bigger prices for top-20 wagers. 

John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Sungjae Im (+2500)

Full disclosure: This is the spot I’d initially had earmarked for Cantlay, who ranks fourth in Round 1 scoring average this year. Instead, I’ll pivot to the new favorite, whose Thursdays have been decidedly less impressive. Im ranks just 106th in that category, with just a single sub-70 opener in his last five starts, but he’s finished inside the top-12 in five of his last seven.

Based on these numbers, it might be more likely that he’ll post the best Friday or Saturday total, but simply having a propensity to go low should be enough to take on a small investment in this market.

Aggressive: Joel Dahmen (+8000)

When Dahmen finished runner-up at this event back in 2018, he opened with a 64, two shots out of FRL honors. He’s been starting well recently, too, with a pair of 67s and nothing worse than 70 in his last five openers. For a guy who’s known to be streaky, I like taking a shot on the single-round upside here.