Masters Odds History: Can Scottie Scheffler Buck Trend for Favorites?

AUGUSTA, Ga. — I played in a golf tournament this past weekend with more than 100 other guys, all of whom love the game and, more relevantly, love a little action on it.

All of which explains the most popular recurring question I kept hearing in advance of this week’s Masters Tournament: “So, who do you like?” It wasn’t that query, though, which was so telling, but the immediate follow-up question, which would invariably be posited before a reply could be mustered: “It’s gotta be Scottie, right?”

That is, of course, a reference to Scottie Scheffler, the world’s No. 1-ranked player, who’s been beaten by exactly one golfer in his last three starts, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship before missing a putt on the final hole of the Texas Children’s Houston Open to lose to Stephan Jaeger.

Scheffler doesn’t just have form in his back pocket, either. He’s been there and done that at Augusta National, winning so easily two years ago that a final-hole four-putt merely elicited a few chuckles instead of any undue stress.

Put it all together and it’s easy to understand why Scottie is a +400 Masters odds favorite this week — and why so many golf fans and bettors believe his second green jacket is such a foregone conclusion.

I’m certainly not going to suggest that Scheffler won’t or can’t or shouldn’t win again, but this feels like a nice place to remind everyone that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Scheffler is the shortest Masters favorite since Tiger Woods in 2012 (9/2 odds), who finished in a share of 40th place that week. Over the past decade, there have been 15 instances of a pre-tournament sole favorite or co-favorite and they’ve combined for exactly zero Masters victories in those years.

Favorites Masters Odds History

* co-favorite

Count ‘em up and there’s been just three top-five results amongst those favorites, though eight top-10s, a statistic which suggests the best of the best might have more value as a floor play than ceiling.

Therein lies The Scottie Scheffler Conundrum.

How do we bet the world’s best golfer when it’s been proven time and again that the best player often doesn’t win?

Well, there are a few truths which appear to be self-evident.

If you’re so confident in Scottie breaking the trend and winning this week, then your outright wager should be a single-bullet play. At 4/1, it’s fairly illogical to hedge a Scheffler outright with similar plays on, say, Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka.

Playing a number this short should limit the possibilities on your card, essentially hoping quality beats out quantity.

By the same token, playing Scheffler for a conservative prop feels a little too safe. Sure, you probably think he’s going to finish in the top-10, but so does everybody else, which is why that’s reflected in odds shorter than even-money.

All of this leads to my two favorite ways to play this week’s favorite.

The first is simple: Take him for a top-five. Scheffler has now finished top-five in five of his eight starts this year — and T-6 in another at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he was tracking toward a top-five until weather shortened the event to three rounds.

These numbers show his actual top-five percentage exceeds his implied probability, suggesting there’s value on him in this market. It feels like a nice bankroll play, giving us an investment in Scottie while allowing some more aggressive plays up and down the board.

The second idea isn’t for the faint of heart. It’ll require some patience and will backfire if Scheffler gets off to a fast start, but the strategy is to just sit back and wait, hoping he trails by 4 or 5 strokes at some point, raising his odds to a more palatable number. The trick here, obviously, is choosing the best time to strike.

Eight years ago, for instance, Danny Willett trailed by five strokes on the back-nine during Sunday’s final round, giving him massive value if you foresaw Jordan Spieth’s imminent collapse. Last year, Jon Rahm posted a double-bogey on the opening hole of the first round, immediately sending his odds skyrocketing before he eventually won three days later.

It’s understandable to want a Scheffler investment this week, but like any investment, you’ll want to make this one as intelligently as possible to maximize the value.