- The Mexico Open at Vidanta is April 27-30.
- Jon Rahm (+250) is a massive favorite.
- It is the only event in Mexico on the PGA Tour schedule.
For the second straight week on the PGA Tour, there’s a huge favorite going into an event.
Last week at the Zurich Classic, Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele were +300, and this week at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, Jon Rahm is +250.
Part of the reason for having such a strong favorite this week is the lack of star power in the field. Many players are taking this week off since it isn’t a designated event, it is a long trip to Mexico, and this is only the second year of the tournament’s existence. Because of all this, only three top-65 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field.
Cantlay/Schauffele finished T-4 as a huge favorite, so how will Rahm fare this week?
Rahm won last year’s event by one stroke (-17) over three players, including Tony Finau, the other marquee name teeing it up.
Since Vidanta Vallarta is hosting a PGA Tour event for just the second time, it’s hard to know exactly which players it favors.
But, at 7,456 yards, it is one of the longer courses on Tour, and last year players seemed to hit more low irons than an average week. And looking at the leaderboard, some of the longer hitters — Rahm, Finau, Kurt Kitayama — were near the top.
Longer hitters should be targeted this week.
Another thing to consider is that the course is a resort-style course on the water, so the wind will likely be a factor.
Players who play well in windy conditions should also be targeted this week.
Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.
*All odds as of April 25.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Predictions
Jon Rahm is predicted to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta with a 26.32% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.
Tony Finau has the next best odds to win with an 11.76% implied probability. He’s followed by Wyndham Clark at 4.76%.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Best Bets
Jon Rahm +250 Odds to Win
Rahm is the best player on the planet right now. He’s won four of the last 10 events he’s appeared in, with his worst finish being a T-39 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Including his win at this event last year, Rahm has made 24 starts and has seven wins, 11 top-five finishes, 15 top-10 finishes, and zero missed cuts.
Tony Finau +750 Odds to Win
In the 2023 calendar year, Finau’s worst finish is T-31, but his best finish is T-7, so it’s been consistently solid but lacks a marquee finish. This could come this week at a place where he played well a year ago, and some of his most recent wins — Rocket Mortgage Classic, 3M Open and Houston Open — have been at tournaments with relatively weak fields.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Sleepers
Matt Wallace +6600 Odds to Win
Wallace is already a winner this season, winning the Corales Puntacana Championship, so this number feels a bit low. He also checks the boxes for some key metrics, including ball striking and playing well on longer courses.
Luke List +6600 Odds to Win
It’s been a tough season for List, who has missed eight cuts in 17 starts, but he’s played better on longer courses throughout his career. This includes his only PGA Tour win, at the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open played at Torrey Pines.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Card & Other Predictions
- Tony Finau Outright Win +750
- Gary Woodland Top-10 Finish +190
- Luke List Top-20 Finish +210
- Matt Wallace Top-20 Finish +220
This is one of the tougher events of the year to handicap, given the lack of data to go on and the below-average field. Because of this, I will be keeping my card small and relying on my Fantasy National model.
While I like Rahm, the number is just too small to play, so I went with Finau based on his runner-up finish a year ago and his ability to win against weaker fields. For props, I went with players who ranked high in my model.
The top 10 of my Fantasy National Model were:
- Jon Rahm
- Gary Woodland
- Tony Finau
- Luke List
- Wyndham Clark
- Joseph Bramlett
- Charley Hoffman
- Matt Wallace
- Lanto Griffin
- Kevin Roy
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