Sanderson Farms Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Look, you’re clicking this link right as the NFL and college football seasons are getting into full swing, and the Major League Baseball playoffs are underway, and the NBA and NHL seasons are coming soon, sooo… congratulations on being a Certified Golf Sicko.

Not that I need to tell you, but this week’s PGA Tour event is the Sanderson Farms Championship, the second of eight events during the fall portion of the calendar.

The annual stop in Jackson, Miss., will again be contested at the 7,461-yard CC of Jackson, where winners in the past decade have ranged from big hitters (Cameron Champ) to short knockers (Peter Malnati), great putters (Sam Burns) to poor ones (Luke List), superstars (Sergio Garcia) to journeymen (Cody Gribble).

All of this implies that this should be one of the less predictable tourneys on the schedule, especially when we realize that the tri-favorites of Mackenzie Hughes, Keith Mitchell and Maverick McNealy have a combined three career victories.

Let’s get right to the golf betting picks, starting with a guy who shouldn’t be showing much fatigue.

Sanderson Farms Championship Outright Bets

Conservative: Eric Cole (+4000)

There aren’t many weeks handicapping the PGA Tour when form matters less than it does at this one, as many of the players in this field have competed maybe – maybe – once in the past two months. Unless you’ve been scouting ranges and hearing about offseason money games, there’s probably no real way to gauge how most players are hitting the ball entering this week. 

Then there’s Cole, who’s been doing what he usually does during some downtime – playing golf on minor-league mini-tours. I love the idea that last year’s ROY is staying fresh after posting top-20s in four of his eight most recent starts at the highest level. It’ll be a great feel-good story when he finally wins on the PGA Tour and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if that story happens during the fall part of the schedule.

Aggressive: Hayden Buckley (+17500)

To the uninitiated, betting golf outrights comes down to answering a simple question: “So, who do you think is going to win this week?” If there’s someone out there who can produce a single name and consistently answer that question correctly, I’ll turn over the keys to this column. The reality is, it’s all about playing the percentages and trying to figure out which players’ puzzle pieces might fit on a given week. All of which is to say that I wouldn’t necessarily pick Buckley as my answer to that question, but I do believe it can happen – and at this price, I’m willing to pay to find out. 

The 26-year-old hasn’t enjoyed the most consistent year on the PGA Tour, but he’s shown more value in his ceiling than his floor, which suggests he makes for a better longshot outright than, say, a top-20. In his last nine starts, Buckley owns two results of seventh or better, but nothing else inside the top-30. With a top-20 in Jackson two years ago, I like the idea of taking a chance on hitting that ceiling at a massive triple-digit price here. 

Sanderson Farms Championship Top-5 Bets

Conservative: Adam Svensson (+650)

As I said on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show Hitting the Green in the days and weeks leading up to the Presidents Cup captain’s picks announcement, I would’ve included Billy Horschel on my list for the American side. Now, Horschel has since told me that he didn’t believe he’d make the team and didn’t use that as motivation to help win the BMW PGA Championship, but I do still think there was some underlying assistance in the process.

The same could go for Svensson this week. If there were Canadian players who felt they had a right to be on the International team and didn’t make it, they were Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor, not Svensson, though it wouldn’t be the first time a player on the outside looking in received palpable inspiration while watching from afar. Throw in the fact that he’s posted a couple of top-15 finishes in his last two starts, plus a T-16 at last year’s Sanderson, and he’s a terrific candidate to contend for this title.

Aggressive: Justin Lower (+900)

Collectively, we tend to view the career starts of players such as Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa and wonder why others can’t replicate their success, instead of seeing them as the outliers and players like Lower as the norm. In his first three seasons on the PGA Tour, Lower’s game has grown immeasurably, going from 143rd in total strokes gained (the greatest barometer of performance that we have) to 107th to 62nd this year. 

I’m a firm believer that he’s going to win at this level – and when he does, at least for the first time, chances are it’ll be either an opposite-field event or a fall tournament. He’ll be on my card for much of the next two months, starting with this one, where he makes sense for a third career top-five, but is also worth an outright sprinkle. 

Sanderson Farms Championship Top-10 Bets

Conservative: Harris English (+400)

Four years ago, I learned a lesson during this very event. At the time, Sergio Garcia was still competing on the PGA Tour, though not very well, and was upwards of 50/1 entering the week. It felt like the entire golf betting industry was on him, considering he was easily the most talented player in that field, but I was wary about the fact that he’d never before played this event and might only be there to fulfill some sponsorship obligation or appearance requirement or just to get in a few swings during a slow period on the calendar. Of course, he won that week as the Occam’s Razor play and I wasn’t included in that community victory across the industry. 

The lesson is that talented players are still talented, even in an unfamiliar environment. I bring that up here because English might not be the most talented player in this field, but he’s certainly closer to the top than the 17th-most talented, which is where he ranks on the pre-tourney odds board. If there’s one player who could win this week and most have bettors kicking themselves for not being on him, it’s this four-time winner. 

Aggressive: Matt NeSmith (+1000)

These fall events are a perfect time to target players whom you’ve liked for a while, but have trouble backing too frequently during the meaty part of the schedule. I feel that way about NeSmith, who’s one of the game’s more underrated ball-strikers when he’s on, but admittedly hasn’t been “on” enough over the past few years. 

His most recent five starts should serve as a microcosm for his career, with two top-10s and three MCs, though such wide ranges are more beneficial to a player at this level than a whole bunch of 29th-place results. He’s been T-9 and T-25 at this event over the past two years, so there’s reason to believe he can spike again this week.

Sanderson Farms Championship Top-20 Bets

Conservative: Taylor Moore (+200)

Following the strategy of the Harris English selection above, sometimes it’s best to go with the NFL Draft thought process of Best Player Available. Moore’s name doesn’t exactly pop off the page here, but he’s extremely undervalued at 60/1 in the outright market, especially considering he’s posted a pair of top-25s in his two starts here. A top-20 wager is a nice bankroll play here, but I’ll have him for an outright at this number, as well. 

Aggressive: Chad Ramey (+400)

Call me a sentimental fool – or just a fool – but I often like targeting players in their hometown or home state event, whatever they’d consider their personal “Fifth Major.” Ramey hails from Fulton, Miss., and while my GPS shows that’s a good three-and-a-half-hour car ride, I know playing in this one remains more than a little special for him. He’s a very good putter, ranking 28th on the PGA Tour this season, and finished T-16 here last year with a below-average putting week. If he putts like he usually does, the home-stater can contend here.

Sanderson Farms Championship First-Round Leader Bets

Conservative: Ryo Hisatsune (+9000)

Look, if you’re playing FRLs at the Sanderson Farms during the heart of football season and don’t want to get a little weird with some longshots, then I don’t know what to tell you. Sure, one of the faves could certainly take the Thursday night lead, but this should be considered dart-throwing at its finest, so you might as well throw ‘em blindfolded and try to hit big.

Alright, maybe we can peek out of one eye here, because a look into Hisatsune’s opening-round numbers shows that he’s posted sub-70 scores in 10 of 22 starts this year, including three 65s and two 67s, and he ranks inside the top-half of the PGA Tour in R1 scoring average.

Aggressive: Ben Taylor (+17500)

Another longshot in this market, Taylor has shown some promise on Thursdays, breaking 70 in four of his last five starts, with a scoring average of 68.6 during that time, while similarly breaking 70 during each of his first two rounds in Jackson last year. Considering a T-6 at the ISCO Championship was his only top-30 during the recent regular season, I wouldn’t recommend extending any Taylor investments to four rounds, but at a big price, he’s proven he can go low in the opener.