The American Express 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

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Patrick Cantlay watches his shot on the first fairway during the second round of the PGA Zurich Classic golf tournament, Friday, April 22, 2022, at TPC Louisiana in Avondale, La. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Ryan Hannable @RyanHannable Jan 18, 2024, 9:29 AM
  • The American Express is Jan. 18-21 from PGA West in La Quinta, Calif.
  • It isn’t a signature event, but many top players are in the field.
  • Scottie Scheffler (+550) has the best odds to win.

The American Express, the first event of 2024 in the continental United States, is a unique one.

The event is at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif., which has three courses — Pete Dye SC, Nicklaus TC, La Quinta CC. Players play all three courses for the first three rounds, and the final round is exclusively at Pete Dye SC.

It is also a pro-am event, with the amateurs playing the first three rounds. This makes for close to six-hour rounds, slower green speeds and also not any Shotlink data for Nicklaus TC and La Quinta CC.

This makes golf betting a little less predictable this week.

Because of the lack of data available, I will be targeting players who have played well at this event before, as well as those who have had success at birdie fests. That is expected to be the case this week.

In the past five editions, the winning score has been 23-under or better. When it comes to winners, 14 of the last 15 played in at least one of the two events in Hawaii.

Despite it not being a PGA Tour signature event, a number of top players are in the field, including Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas.

Scheffler (+550) has the best odds to win.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week.

*All odds as of Jan. 16.

The American Express Prediction

Scheffler is expected to win The American Express with a 15.38% implied probability, according to betting markets. Schauffele and Cantlay follow at 9.09%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

The American Express Best Bets

Patrick Cantlay +1000 Odds to Win

Although Cantlay finished T-26 a year ago, he has a great track record at this event. He logged three straight top 10 finishes in his three appearances prior to 2023. He finished T-12 at The Sentry, and that is coming off a strong end to the 2023 season.

Sungjae Im +2000 Odds to Win

Im has a tremendous track record at this event, as in five appearances he hasn’t finished worse than T-18. He’s coming off The Sentry, where he set a record for number of birdies at a PGA Tour event (34).

The American Express Sleeper Picks

Adam Hadwin +5500 Odds to Win

Although Hadwin missed the cut last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he had a strong showing at The Sentry with a T-14 finish. Specific to this event, he’s made the cut in all eight of his appearances, including six top 25s.

Tom Hoge +10000 Odds to Win

Hoge likes the state of California, as he logged his only PGA Tour win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and he’s also had some success here with two top 10s to his name. He’s coming off two solid showings in Hawaii, so he has some rounds under his belt heading into the week.

The American Express Betting Card & Other Predictions

  • Patrick Cantlay Outright Win +1000
  • Sungjae Im Outright Win +2000
  • Adam Hadwin Top 20 Finish +225
  • Tom Hoge Top 40 Finish +125

Due to the lack of data available and the three courses, I’m keeping my card short and simple this week. I also didn’t feel like a Fantasy National model would help much, either.

Cantlay is due for a win; he hasn’t won since the 2022 BMW Championship. Meanwhile, Im is a birdie machine, and that is what’s needed to win this week.

Lastly, Hadwin and Hoge have great track records here, so those prices were too good to pass up.

PGA Odds at the Online Sportsbook

BetMGM is the premier online sportsbook for updated PGA odds throughout the year.

From major championship betting like The Masters or U.S. Open to lower-level tournaments like the Puerto Rico Open or The Genesis Invitaitonal, BetMGM has updated odds each week.

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About the Author

Ryan Hannable

Read More @RyanHannable

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”