The Memorial Tournament 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

Given Jack Nicklaus is the tournament host and Muirfield Village is one of the more pristine courses in the country, the Memorial Tournament has always drawn a strong field, but it will reach a new level this week.

As a designated event with a purse of $20 million, virtually all of the best players on the PGA Tour will be teeing it up. Max Homa and Tony Finau are the only two players in the Official Golf  Rankings who qualified and are skipping the event.

Muirfield Village is known for its length, long rough, and fast greens. It underwent a renovation following the 2020 event and has a major-type feel.

Given the major championship-like course, a lot of advanced stats will be similar to majors. Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and Good Drives Gained in long rough will all be worth looking at this week.

When it comes to winners of late, it’s been the best players in the game.

The winners in the last five years have included Patrick Cantlay (twice), Jon Rahm, Billy Horschel and Bryson DeChambeau.

The two years since the redesign has carried more weight, and the winning score has been 13-under both times. Prior to the redesign, the winning score tended to be a few strokes lower. This indicates the course is playing harder.

Scottie Scheffler (+600) has the best odds to win, followed by Rahm (+750).

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*Odds as of May 30.

The Memorial Tournament Predictions 

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Wells Fargo Championship with a 14.29% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Jon Rahm has the next-best implied probability to win at 11.76, while Rory McIlroy is third at 9.09%.

The Memorial Tournament Best Bets

Jon Rahm +750 Odds to Win

Rahm has had quite a bit of success at this event. In 2020, he won by three strokes, and that includes a questionable two-stroke penalty in the final round. In 2021, he led after the third round, but was forced to withdraw because of testing positive for COVID-19.

While Rahm has cooled off a bit of late, he’s still been the best player on the PGA Tour this season, winning four times, including two designated events.

Patrick Cantlay +1000 Odds to Win

Cantlay might be better at Muirfield Village than Rahm. In six career appearances, he has finished no worse than T-35 with four top-four finishes and two wins. He also putts his best on fast Bentgrass greens.

He’s yet to win this season, but has seven top-10 finishes, including three in his last four starts.

The Memorial Tournament Sleepers

Shane Lowry +5000 Odds to Win

Lowry is a player who seems to enjoy more success at the tougher courses, and that is what this week will be like. The 36-year-old is coming off a T-12 at the PGA Championship, so he will look to ride that momentum into this week.

He has a decent track record at the event, with his best finish being a T-6 in 2021.

Si Woo Kim +5000 Odds to Win

Kim has been very, very good at Muirfield Village. Over the last five years, besides Cantlay, no one has more Strokes Gained at this event than Kim. On the renovated course, he has finished T-13 (2022) and T-9 (2021).

The 27-year-old has been up and down this season but did have a T-2 at the AT&T Byron Nelson a few weeks back.

The Memorial Tournament Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Tyrrell Hatton Outright Win +2500
• Justin Thomas Outright Win +2800
• Shane Lowry Outright Win +5000
• Sam Stevens Outright Win +17500
• Justin Thomas Top-10 Finish +225
• Jordan Spieth Top-20 Finish +125
• Shane Lowry Top-20 Finish +175

I kept my betting card to all top players, with the exception of Stevens, who ranked 15th in my Fantasy National model.

While Patrick Cantlay (+1000) and Xander Schauffele (+1400) were tempting, I went with players from the next tier for my outright picks.

When it came to props, I like the value of getting plus money on Spieth and Lowry to finish inside the top 20, and it feels like Thomas is due for a breakout week very soon.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Jon Rahm
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Justin Thomas
7. Tyrrell Hatton
8. Jordan Spieth
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Corey Conners