The Sentry Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Happy New Year – and perhaps more importantly to those who follow the professional game from a fanatical perspective and (perhaps even more importantly) to those betting it on a weekly basis, Happy New PGA Tour Season.

It wasn’t so long ago that the PGA Tour’s calendar and Gregorian calendar failed to begin at roughly the same time, but this week’s festivities at unblemished Kapalua will indeed again serve as the grand reopening, even if it’s a no-so-happy new beginning for some of those who would be prominently involved.

First, we received word that Scottie Scheffler cut his hand on a piece of glass and required surgery, forcing him to withdraw from The Sentry and delaying his start by at least a few weeks. Then we saw the x-ray posted to social media by Viktor Hovland showing a broken pinky toe, which – even if he is able to compete this week – shouldn’t feel very good during the most arduous walk on the annual schedule.

We do have a (somewhat) star-studded 60-man field convening in Maui, as one player will get a jump start on his campaign by qualifying for next year’s edition of this tournament before the rest of us have even gotten a chance to break our New Year’s resolutions.

Before I get to this week’s selections, a few words about one of the most scenic golf courses on the planet.

The Plantation Course plays to a meaty 7,596 yards on the scorecard, but that doesn’t mean it only plays into the hands of the biggest hitters. Remember, this is a par-73 with just one par-3 on the back-nine. The 18th hole is stretched out to 677 yards but remains a two-shotter for most of the pros.

And therein lies the main point: Length is certainly helpful on this course, but not a requirement. Players only have to be long enough – and the way professional golf is played these days, if you’re not long enough, you’re not in this field anyway.

I’ve covered this event a half-dozen times in person, and it was never too difficult to separate those on a business trip from those on a working vacation, meaning there might only be half the field who’d touched a club between Christmas and the time their plane landed in the Aloha State.

These days, though, even if a guy has extended family in tow and dips his toes in the sand while sipping on a mai-tai during a week, there’s probably too much at stake for most of them to be treating this one as anything other than strictly business, so we shouldn’t expect to see much rust.

Alright, enough talk. It’s time for action. Let’s get to my favorite plays for this week – as always, from both a conservative and aggressive outlook.

The Sentry Outright Picks

Conservative: Wyndham Clark (+3500)

OK, so Clark followed his breakthrough major championship-winning 2023 campaign with “only” one victory last year in an event that was shortened to “only” 54 holes. He still posted three other top-three finishes and a total of eight top-10s in 21 starts – and considered it a poor performance by his standards. And yet, I feel like we’re collectively either forgetting all about it or simply writing him off as a guy who’s already peaked. That includes the oddsmakers. 

I’m admittedly price-shopping here, but 35/1 feels like a smashable number when the likes of – and nothing against these guys, each of whom is extremely talented – Corey Conners and Russell Henley own shorter outright prices, despite their infrequent visits to the top of leaderboards. In his initial start at Kapalua last year, Clark finished a middling T-29 but closed with a final-round 63, which suggests it might’ve just taken him a few days to figure something out. 

On a week when there’s no “recent form” and little other info at our disposal, I like the idea of simply playing those with a favorable talent-to-odds ratio, and perhaps nobody is higher on this list than Clark.

Aggressive: Cam Davis (+10000)

I’ve long held the belief that Australians have enjoyed so much success at The Sentry because their body clocks are attuned to it being mid-summer, as opposed to so many of their peers gorging on Christmas cookies over winter vacation. There’s more to it than that, of course. Many of the Aussies play in their country’s biggest tournaments, which take place in December, so they’ve been competing more recently than others in the field. And the windswept Plantation Course can often have an impact on shot trajectories, while the Aussies are unilaterally adept at playing in a stiff breeze.

 Whatever the case, Stuart Appleby once three-peated here, later followed by two in a row from Geoff Ogilvy and another from Cameron Smith. That’s six wins in 21 years for Australian-born players, easily superseding the fact that they usually comprise about five percent of the field. Case in point: There are only three competing this week, and while Adam Scott (30/1) or Jason Day (45/1) could contend, I’d rather take a chance on the one with the biggest price. 

Davis isn’t the most consistent player, but he’s armed with exactly what we’re looking for from a triple-digit ‘dog – a ton of offensive firepower and a ceiling that has proven he can win when he plays his best golf. His T-52 here last year doesn’t offer much hope, but he did finish T-10 in his only other appearance three years ago, posting four sub-70 scores.

The Sentry Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Justin Thomas (+200)

For all the deep-diving and analytic examining we do on a weekly basis, sometimes it pays to adhere to the ol’ KISS method: Keep it simple, stupid. Thomas has played this tournament eight times. He owns two wins and three other top-five results. That’s a cash percentage of 62.5 for this particular wager, which far outweighs his implied odds.

He’s coming off an autumn during which he only played twice, but posted a T-2 at the Zozo Championship and a solo third at the Hero World Challenge. If last year was a bounce-back from his disappointing 2023 campaign, then this year is bound to be a bounce-back from the bounce-back. It all starts this week, at a tourney where he should already have plenty of good vibes.

Aggressive: Sahith Theegala (+400)

For bettors, the most difficult part of watching Theegala’s ascendancy hasn’t been knowing that it’s coming; it’s been trying to figure out exactly when he’s going to peak. I tend to favor him in events on his native West Coast, but Sahith has enjoyed success at a variety of different venues, which speaks to his overall talent level. If we were going to build a course for him, though, it would probably have some super-wide landing spots in the fairways, tight chipping areas around the greens, and an ability to make plenty of birdies – in other words, it would look a lot like the Plantation Course. 

It should’ve come as little surprise that he finished runner-up last year in just his second career start at this event. I like the idea of playing him to come close to matching that result again this week. It might not be the most aggressive top-five play, but we’re chasing a bit with the outrights above, so I don’t mind keeping it a little more conservative here.

The Sentry Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Davis Thompson (+275)

If you’re in a season-long fantasy league, grab this guy one round too early instead of one round too late. You can thank me later. If you’re just betting on tournaments each week, write his name down, and don’t forget it too often. He might not be the most mercurial personality on the PGA Tour (imagine, if you can, a less-loquacious Cameron Young), but Thompson is like a real-life Iron Byron, mechanically splitting fairways with massive drives and firing iron shots right at the flagsticks. 

I’m so bullish on him that I think he’ll make a serious run at consideration for this year’s U.S. Ryder Cup team and could be a mainstay on those squads over the next decade. Kapalua often takes a few spins before players figure it out, but there aren’t many spots where I’ll want to fade Thompson, so I’ll back him for a top-10 in his first start here.

Aggressive: Jake Knapp (+750)

Only one player in this week’s field has won inside of the past month, and that’s Knapp, who teamed with Patty Tavatanakit to claim the Grant Thornton Invitational. I’m not naïve enough to believe that a two-player hit-and-giggle in Florida can lead to individual success in Hawaii, but I do think Knapp is back on track to start playing the type of golf he showed early in his rookie season. 

I like taking a chance on some big numbers for top-10s in these types of fields, when it only means finishing in the top-16.7 percent. If Knapp isn’t on your radar, I similarly don’t mind playing Nico Echavarria (+550), Thomas Detry (+550) or Chris Gotterup (+1100) for top-10s, as well.

The Sentry FIrst-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Si Woo Kim (+4000)

As you’ll read (I hope) in my article on “The Leap” which will be posted this week, I’m very bullish on Kim to take the next step in his career progression this year. The talent has always been there, now it’s joined by a newfound consistency and perhaps a better sense of self, knowing he belongs amongst the game’s best. His first-round scoring average ranked just 66th last season, but a 65 and two 66s in his last seven rounds at Kapalua could portend good things for this one.

Aggressive: Nico Echavarria (+6600)

As a professional golfer, there’s never a bad time to play the best golf of your life, but some months are obviously better than others. That said, I’m sure Echavarria won’t quibble with the fact that his best golf recently came during the fall portion of the schedule when he posted a win, a runner-up and four results of 11th or better in his final half-dozen starts. They all began with strong opening rounds, as he averaged 67.50 on Thursdays in those six events. He’ll need to go 3-4 strokes lower this week, but he’s certainly capable of racing out to an early lead against this established field.