U.S. Open 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

Even though it feels like the PGA Championship just ended, another major is here with the U.S. Open, June 15-18, from Los Angeles Country Club.

It hasn’t hosted a major before and hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since the 1940s, but Max Homa does have the course record of 61, set during the 2013 Pac-12 Championship. It also hosted the 2017 Walker Cup.

With that being said, there’s not really much course history to go off of when targeting players this week, but some insights into the course have been reported, as many players have been on the property the last few days.

It is a par-70 and plays to 7,421 yards. It has five par-3s, all with varying yardages. One can play close to 290 yards, and another can play as short as 75 yards. While it may seem like a long course, elevation changes make it play shorter, so longer hitters don’t necessarily have a big advantage.

With that being said, players will be hitting plenty of long irons and woods this week.

Early reports indicate it won’t play like a typical U.S. Open, as the rough isn’t as thick as past venues, and the fairways are wider. Instead, with tricky green complexes and pin locations, it will be about creating the best angles to get the ball close to the hole.

Some have compared LACC to the Plantation Course in Kapalua and Augusta National.

Recent U.S. Opens have had the winning score be close to even-par, but the expectation for this week is more birdies will be made, and the winning score potentially could get close to double digits, depending on how firm and fast the USGA makes it over the weekend.

The trends of late indicate the winner will be one of the best players in the game, as long shots typically do not stand much of a chance.

Scottie Scheffler (+650) enters with the best odds to win this week. 

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*All odds as of June 13.

U.S. Open Predictions 

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Wells Fargo Championship with a 13.33% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Jon Rahm has the next best odds to win with a 9.09% implied probability.  He is followed by Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka at 8.33%.

U.S. Open Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +650 Odds to Win

Scheffler is undoubtedly playing the best of anyone in the field at the moment. The No. 1 player in the world has 16 straight top-12 finishes, including four straight top-5 finishes. If his putter was even average during this stretch, he would have way more than two wins.

Unlike most players in the field, Scheffler has played the course a number of times before, having played in the 2017 Walker Cup. 

Cameron Smith +2800 Odds to Win

Smith may be flying under the radar a bit this week. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in any event since the Masters. Even though LIV events don’t have huge fields, it’s still an impressive feat.

In addition, Smith has tremendous track records at LACC’s comparable courses – the Plantation Course and Augusta National.

U.S. Open Sleepers

Sahith Theegala +9000 Odds to Win

Going to college at Pepperdine, which is right down the road, Theegala should feel close to home this week. And four of his 16 top-15 finishes on the PGA Tour have come in California. 

Not only that, the course should suit his game as well. He seems to play his best golf on the more difficult courses, which will be the case this week.

Russell Henley +10000 Odds to Win

Did you know Henley is currently ranked 30th in the Official World Golf Rankings? The 34-year-old is playing some very consistent golf and has performed in the majors as of late.

Henley finished T-4 at the Masters earlier this year and has five top-25 finishes in majors since 2018.

U.S. Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Scottie Scheffler Outright Win +650
• Xander Schauffele Outright Win +1800
• Jordan Spieth Outright Win +2500
• Cameron Smith Outright Win +2800
• Cameron Smith Top-10 Finish  +240
• Jordan Spieth Top-10 Finish +220
• Matt Fitzpatrick Top-20 Finish +125
• Hayden Buckley Top-40 Finish +188

Since it’s a major, my betting card is a little bigger than usual, and although I considered the Fantasy National model, I didn’t rely on it as much as a normal event.

Even though the value isn’t great, I really like Scheffler this week. The other players I targeted were players who have had success at Augusta National and the Plantation Course.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Jon Rahm
5. Justin Rose
6. Tony Finau 
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Max Homa
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Wyndham Clark