U.S. Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

OAKMONT, Pa. – This isn’t quite unstoppable force versus immovable object, but there will be a certain push-and-pull on display at this week’s 125th U.S. Open Championship that will be fascinating to witness, as we try to discern which camp will enjoy greater success.

It’s not so long ago – at least, it doesn’t feel like so long ago – that this major championship was the domain of the precision players. Corey Pavin won this one. So did Jim Furyk. Lee Janzen and Retief Goosen each claimed a pair. The commonality between all of them was that they wouldn’t overpower a golf course, but could repeatedly hit fairways and greens and grind out pars while the competition made too many mistakes to keep pace.

Over the past decade, the U.S. Open has seen a not-so-subtle transformation on its winners’ list. Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka, a couple of brawny bashers, have two wins apiece. Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Jon Rahm and Wyndham Clark similarly look more like athletes than their pleated-pants predecessors.

All of which brings us to Oakmont Country Club, where once again the devil is in the details at golf’s greatest Catch-22.

The players will tell us, you see, that it’s imperative to find the short stuff off the tee, with juicy five-inch rough adjacent to every fairway. They’ll inform us that the thick grass is so penal that it might be a half-stroke or even a full-stroke penalty if the ball is sitting down in it.

And then, for the most part, they’ll all reach into their bags, take a headcover off the driver and bang it as far as they can.

Pros have been conditioned to warn observers about the difficulties of playing from the rough, but they’ve also been schooled in the next-gen approach to attacking golf courses: Long and straight is optimal, but if you’ve gotta choose, then long and crooked sometimes is still preferable to short and straight every time.

In regular PGA Tour events, this might be a no-brainer, but you’d think this strategy would be shelved when the big miss can lead to a big number on the scorecard.

What we’ve witnessed during the past decade, however, is that U.S. Open courses have largely featured fairways so pinched that nobody is going to hit ‘em every time.

The result helps to explain how and why the types of winners have changed so much in this event.

There’s a distinct advantage to those who go long and into the rough than short and in the rough, just as there’s an edge to those aforementioned athletes who can effectively extricate themselves from such positions — all of which, of course, correlates.

It should also serve as a warning in the days leading up to this one, as we’re trying to finalize our betting cards and figure out which players will contend for this title.

The last three winners at Oakmont were Ernie Els, Angel Cabrera and Dustin Johnson, each one of the bigger hitters of his generation. That doesn’t mean others couldn’t contend. In 2016, for example, Jim Furyk, Kevin Na and Zach Johnson were all inside the top-10, which could offer a glimmer of hope to the Pavin-esque precise guys this week.

We’ll soon find out which camp will prevail, though chances are it’ll just be the best player atop the final leaderboard once again – and that’s right where I’ll start with my selections.

U.S. Open Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Scottie Scheffler (+275)
On the one hand, I often mention the Occam’s Razor theory of betting, which states that the simplest explanation is usually the most correct explanation, as well. There’s no simpler explanation as to which player could win at Oakmont than Scheffler, who’s won three of his last four, including the PGA Championship. It might not be the foregone conclusion that some believe, but it’s tough to imagine he won’t be right there at the end — and the oddsmakers agree, listing the world No. 1 at less than 3-to-1 odds.

On the other hand, though, I’m also a big believer in the zig-when-everyone-else-zags strategy. Groupthink is rarely correct and when the masses are in agreement about a specific wager, it’s usually best to stay away. I get it: Those are contradictory theorems which force us to pick a side. In fact, the first question you should be asking yourself while creating your card this week is, “Scottie or no Scottie?”

As someone who backed him in a similar he-surely-can’t-lose circumstance before last year’s U.S. Open, which he surely lost by finishing in 41st place – which remains his worst result in his last dozen majors – I’m fully aware that Scheffler isn’t a lock this week, but he is the answer which makes the most sense. Oakmont will test every aspect of a player’s game and nobody does “everything” better than Scheffler, who can give himself an opportunity to head to next month’s Open Championship with a shot at replicating Rory McIlroy’s recent career slam.

Aggressive: Jon Rahm (+1200)
I’ll preemptively address the complaints that Rahm is hardly an “aggressive” outright, but there’s a good reason for that: For as much as I believed that it would be one of the top-tier players who’d win the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last month, I more firmly believe it this week — and the cadre of top-tier players might be even less than it was then. The odds tell us that Scheffler over the field is a plus-money bet, but Scheffler, Rahm, Xander Schauffele and defending champion Bryson DeChambeau would be a formidable foursome against the other 152.

Of them, Rahm is my favorite of those final three and while playing both Scheffler and him for outrights might be counterproductive, I like the idea of playing the 2021 champion in the “Without Scheffler” market, which offers a chance to win if he beats Scottie and a chance to hit the exacta if he finishes right behind him.

U.S. Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Bryson DeChambeau (+160)

It’s getting a little dusty in here from all this chalk I’m eating so far, but I really believe that if you’re looking to cash in on contenders, then you’ll need to pay up for a few of the favorites. As if to only emphasize what I wrote about in the intro, the idea that DeChambeau has become the quintessential U.S. Open player proves how much this tournament has changed over the years – or perhaps more relevantly, how certain players have changed how they play this tournament. His wins in 2020 and last year sandwiched a pair of top-30s and he also had a couple of top-30s before that first victory.

And that was before he asserted himself as one of the preeminent major championship contenders, which is the biggest reason he’s being listed in this spot. Bryson has finished top-five in four of the last five majors and top-six in six of the last nine. I still believe it’s undeniable there are some LIV Golf players whose games have slipped over the last few years, for whatever reasons. DeChambeau, on the other hand, clearly brings his best stuff to the four tournaments each year when the best are all competing together. There’s no reason to believe that will stop this week. 

Aggressive: Keegan Bradley (+900) and Maverick McNealy (+1200)
I firmly believe that serving as U.S. Ryder Cup captain has helped Bradley’s performance this year – not because he’s trying to make his own roster, but because it’s allowed him to focus on something besides his own golf, which in turn has freed him up to have a nice season so far. This one should be right up his alley, as top-30 numbers off the tee, with approach and around the greens should negate putting woes which will likely afflict a majority of the field on these ultra-fast greens anyway.

If you aren’t planning to have a Scheffler outright on your card, then I don’t mind a small sprinkle on Keegan in that market; since I do have Scheffler, I’ll keep this one to a top-five play. As for McNealy, from the 2019 through 2022 seasons, he played 76 events. He only had nine top-10s, but posted 26 top-25s and made 55 cuts — impressive floor numbers for a young PGA Tour pro. After winning for the first time at the end of last year, he’s somehow transformed into an all-or-nothing type of performer, which might not echo that earlier consistency, but doesn’t tend to reap greater rewards. In 16 starts, he’s posted a half-dozen top-25s, however they’ve all been inside the top-10, too, with four of them top-fives, including a T-5 in his most recent start at the Memorial Tournament.

With designs on making his first Ryder Cup team, the 29-year-old has yet to prove himself on a major championship stage, with nothing better than a 23rd-place finish in 10 starts. Some of his best results this year, though, have come on major-caliber courses such as Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village, so there’s plenty of reason to believe he can contend this week, as well.

U.S. Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+320) and Tommy Fleetwood (+320)
It’s not that either of these guys can’t win, it’s just that they… don’t. Maybe I’ll be eating these words come Sunday evening, but Cantlay and Fleetwood have repeatedly shown us who they are — top-level floor plays, especially in major championships (even though they didn’t show that in either of this year’s first two majors). There’s an excellent chance that Oakmont plays to the plodders, as four rounds of, say, 71 or so could sneak a player into the top-10. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see both of these guys outside this range entering the weekend, then quietly and gradually claim another yellow square on the ol’ Wikipedia page without ever really getting into serious contention.

Aggressive: Harris English (+550)

If betting the U.S. Open was a game of Clue, English would already be spotting us Col. Mustard and the candlestick. Allow me to list the hints we’ve been given already: 1) He owns top-10 results in three of the last five editions of the U.S. Open; 2) He’s already won on a U.S. Open course this year, having claimed the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines; and 3) He’s finished T-12 at the Masters and T-2 at the PGA Championship in the first two majors of the year. Trends are meant to be broken, of course, but all of these together feel impossible to overlook.

U.S. Open Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Daniel Berger (+275)
The rejuvenation of Berger has gotten a bit derailed recently, as his string of nine consecutive top-30 finishes has turned into 33-MC-MC in his last three. That’s been enough to throw most bettors off the scent, but I’m not ready to give up on the player I’ve bet as much as anybody this year. Those poor results have largely been caused by a balky flatstick, which doesn’t bother me nearly as much as poor ball-striking. Berger has a nice combination of power and accuracy off the tee which should serve as even more of an advantage this week than most others. If he can find his putting stroke to the extent where it’s at least not a liability, I like him once again for finishing position plays, as he looks to get back on track toward what he’d been doing for most of the year.

Aggressive: Denny McCarthy (+400)

Here’s what I wrote about McCarthy prior to last month’s PGA Championship: “McCarthy tends to play well on long, difficult courses, as evidenced by a season-best T-5 at Torrey Pines, a playoff loss two years ago at Muirfield Village and results of T-6 and T-8 right here at Quail Hollow in the past two years.” The only problem was that I wrote these words after submitting his name for a conservative top-40 play, while he ultimately finished in a share of eighth place.

In a world of overvalue, he’s traditionally one of the more undervalued players on the board – whether it’s because he hasn’t won yet or because he does most of his damage with putting instead of ball-striking or because he doesn’t have “the look” of a guy who can take on these bigger ballparks. I’ll take this price on McCarthy and play him for a more aggressive result than I did last month. 

U.S. Open Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Cameron Young (market not yet available) and Thomas Detry (market not yet available)

Even if we believe the top of this leaderboard could be extremely chalky by week’s end, it’s foolish to think there aren’t some good prices lingering in other markets. Young is a player I cautiously listed for a top-40 in an inferior field at the RBC Canadian Open, but he easily hurdled that mark to cash those tickets. I’m still a bit reticent to dive in deeper, but on a big Northeast ballpark which should suit his game, I’ll go back to the well once more – and I’d advise jumping on this one sooner rather than later, as his prices could drop the closer we get to the opening round. Detry owns plenty of value, as well. While he has yet to reach anything close to the heights of his WM Phoenix Open victory, he’s claimed top-40s in five of his last six starts and should match up nicely for this course. These two also make for excellent low-end DFS plays, if you’re paying up for a Scottie or Bryson at the top.

Aggressive: Preston Summerhays (market not yet available)

Let’s be honest here: Nothing that happened at this past weekend’s BMW Charity Pro-Am should be construed as evidence for the U.S. Open, but it wasn’t a bad thing that this wildly talented Arizona State product from a big-time golf family found himself on the leaderboard for three days. I realize that most of the names on this preview aren’t unfamiliar to weekly bettors, so I liked the idea of offering up a true longshot in a player who is getting Scheffler outright-like odds to simply finish in the top-25 percent of this field. The only regret here is that he recently turned pro, so we can’t also play him for low-amateur in this field.

U.S. Open First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Jordan Spieth (+5000)

Do I think Spieth’s current form is good enough to hold out against the world’s best players for four days? No, I do not. Do I think he’s got the stuff to post a low opener and at least get us thinking about that prospect? Absolutely. Personally, I love the idea of chasing volatility in the FRL market and no player is more volatile on a regular basis than Spieth, who once again showed off his short-game wizardry at Muirfield Village in his most recent start. First-round leaders/co-leaders at the U.S. Open over the past six years have included Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele, Adam Hadwin, Russell Henley, Louis Oosthuizen, Justin Thomas and Justin Rose, with perhaps only Hadwin ranking as even a small surprise. I’m not searching too far down the board in this market, but I will seek out some combustibility.

Aggressive: Sungjae Im (+8000)

If you can figure out Im, then please, let the rest of us in on the secret, too. Just when he appears ready to break into golf’s upper echelon (T-5 at the Masters), he quickly starts to look very ordinary (MC at the PGA Championship). Again, if that reeks to you of volatility, then you’re speaking my FRL love language. Sungjae has been terrible at this tournament, missing the cut each of the last three years, but that sort of plays into mysticism – when we least expect it is when he tends to play his best golf. Much like Spieth, I don’t expect him to hang around on the leaderboard for the entire week, but I do think he can look like one of the world’s best players for a single day and don’t mind taking a shot on that day being Thursday.