Valero Texas Open 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

There’s just one PGA Tour event left before the Masters: the Valero Texas Open, April 4-7, from TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course).

TPC San Antonio is one of the Tour’s most basic courses. The par-72 features the standard breakout of 10 par-4s, four par-5s, and four par-3s, but lacks character. The rough isn’t very long, and there isn’t much trouble around the greens.

The biggest defense the course has is the Texas wind. That also determines the winning score. Corey Conners won in 2019 at 20-under, but then 12-under was the winning score in 2016 and 2017. The less wind, the better the scores.

Typically, the best players take the week off prior to a major that trend is starting to change. There are 11 of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Rankings in the field, including Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Brian Harman and Jordan Spieth.

Conners, the defending champion, is also teeing it up, while McIlroy (+1000) has the best odds to win this week.

These are the metrics I’ll be focusing on this week when building my Fantasy National model: Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green, Strokes Gained: Around-the-green, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance and par-5 scoring.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

Valero Texas Open Prediction

McIlroy is expected to win the Valero Texas Open with a 9.09% implied probability, according to betting markets. Ludvig Aberg is next at 7.69%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Rory McIlroy +1000 Odds to Win

McIlroy has the best odds to win this week but is seeking to find his form ahead of the Masters, where he’ll look to win his first green jacket. His best finish on the PGA Tour this year is a T-19 at the Players Championship. It is worth wondering if his main goal this week is to make sure his game has what it needs for Augusta and not ultimately winning the event.

Corey Conners +2200 Odds to Win

Without this tournament, who knows where Conners would be? He won as a Monday qualifier in 2019, which paved the way to a solid past few years on the PGA Tour. He also won this event last year, so it’s clear he loves TPC San Antonio. He enters coming off back-to-back top 20 finishes in the Players Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Valero Texas Open Sleeper Picks

Lucas Glover +6600 Odds to Win

Glover is another player who has had some great success at this event. In four appearances, he has three top 18 finishes, including a solo fourth in 2021. He’s finished 11th in his last tournament, the Valspar Championship.

Charley Hoffman +15000 Odds to Win

This may be Hoffman’s best PGA Tour event. In 17 starts, he’s only missed the cut once. In the last seven years, he has a win and two runner-up finishes. He finished second at the WM Phoenix Open earlier this year, so even at 47 years old, he has what it takes to win. 

Valero Texas Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Hideki Matsuyama Outright Win +1800
• Collin Morikawa Outright Win +2500
• Byeong Hun An Outright Win +3300
• Collin Morikawa Top 20 Finish +125
• Lucas Glover Top 20 Finish +275
• Charley Hoffman Top 20 Finish +450

This week, I went with three outrights and three top 20 finishes, relying on course history and my Fantasy National model.

Matsuyama checks both boxes, while Morikawa isn’t at his best but as one of the best ball strikers on Tour, this could be a week for him to bounce back in a big way.

Hoffman finishing inside the top 20 might be my favorite play of the week, as his success at TPC San Antonio is not reflected in his price. Meanwhile, An and Glover provide good value given their success here in the past.

Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Alex Noren
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Doug Ghim
6. Aaron Rai
7. Keith Mitchell
8. Ludvig Aberg
9. Lucas Glover
10. Brian Harman