After a brief respite for many of the PGA Tourโs best players, get ready for a fortnight with plenty of fireworks, as this weekโs Wells Fargo Championship, a PGA Tour signature event, serves as a tasty appetizer into the yearโs second major at next weekโs PGA Championship.
In most instances, a big-time event devoid of the most big-time player would be reason for a downgrade, but the absence of Scottie Scheffler at Quail Hollow Club might actually add to the allure, considering heโs had a recent tendency to, you know, win every time he plays.
What weโre left with is a more wide-open field, though one which could portend a similar result, with the pre-tourney favorite cruising to victory.
Thatโs where Iโll start this weekโs selections, as the top of the board is simply too enticing to pass up.
Wells Fargo Championship Outright Picks
Conservative: Rory McIlroy (+750)
If last weekโs CJ Cup Byron Nelson presented a perfect opportunity to chase a few triple-digit numbers (with 100/1 longshot Taylor Pendrith eventually winning), this week might be one where we go with the single-bullet theory thatโs been popularized by Scottie Scheffler outright bettors in recent months.ย
With the world No. 1 skipping this one, our weapon of choice this time is McIlroy, the pre-tourney favorite whoโs fresh off a Zurich Classic win alongside Shane Lowry two weeks ago. We can debate whether that victory will be the springboard he needs to win a first major championship in a decade โ and Iโll be writing on that very topic this week โ but itโs tough to believe he wonโt ride that momentum at one of his favorite tracks. In a dozen career starts at Quail Hollow, Rory owns three wins (2010, 2015, 2021), a playoff loss and nine top-10s.ย
Itโs tough to envision another T-47 type of result like he had here last year, especially when he comes in running hot already. My advice is to jump on this price early because I can envision him closing at something closer to +650 by opening tee time on Thursday. (It already has moved after opening at +900.)
If youโre still reluctant to play him at this short number, though, donโt be afraid to wait a day or two into the tournament. In each of his three victories here, he opened with a score in the 70s before going low on the weekend.
Aggressive: Harris English (+5000)
So far this year, Englishโs performance reminds me of Lowry last year โ which is to say, heโs playing at a consistently high level without really having a peak week, as his seventh-place finish at Riviera remains his best result, but he does own seven top-25s in 11 starts. The bright spots have been his chipping and putting, as heโs gained strokes on the field in both categories in each of his last seven tourneys.ย
Couple that with a career-best T-3 at Quail Hollow last year, and the four-time champion should own some win equity in this shortened field. If youโre not going the Rory route and putting all of your eggs in that basket, English should be on the short list of longshots who have a chance to win here.
Wells Fargo Championship Top 5 Picks
Conservative: Max Homa (+400)
Welcome to the No Duh portion of this weekโs preview, as Homa should be a popular play this week for a few different reasons. He won this event in both 2019 and 2022, each time posting three rounds in the 60s en route to the title. Those are his only top-fives in a half-dozen career starts here, but he was T-8 last year and posted an unblemished 4-0-0 record at the Presidents Cup two years ago, becoming the catalytic sparkplug of the American team in the process.ย
Then thereโs the fact that heโs been trending in the right direction for a while now, posting five top-20s in 10 appearances this year and gaining strokes with his irons in 17 consecutive measured tournaments. As a course-horse type of player, Homa often plays his best golf in the same spots each year, so it makes perfect sense to back him for another contention at this one.
Aggressive: J.T. Poston (+900)
After starting the year red-hot, with top-20s in five of his first six, Poston cooled off to the tune of four straight finishes of 30th or worse. That ended when he went T-5 at the RBC Heritage in his most recent start, and another Southeast appearance should be the perfect place to chase that result.ย
His best finish at this event was a T-9 two years ago, but Iโd argue that Poston is a more complete player right now than heโs ever been at any previous point in his career, so it makes sense to play him for a title contention, though top-10/20 tickets are obviously viable, as well.
Wells Fargo Championship Top 10 Picks
Conservative: Sahith Theegala (+225)
A rising superstar who ranks fourth on the FedEx Cup points list, I love everything about Theegalaโs game. Well, almost everything. The one thing I donโt like โ from a betting perspective โ is the fact that his all-around performance has rendered him largely unpredictable on a regular basis.ย
Earlier in his career, I tended to favor him at his native West Coast events, but heโs proven that his game can travel and now offers value pretty much anywhere, no matter course length, grass type or any other variables. In his first start at Quail Hollow last year, he finished a mere T-56, but heโs blossoming before our very eyes right now, already with a pair of runner-up finishes this year and five top-10s in a dozen starts.ย
If thereโs a type of venue where weโd favor him, it might be at a big ballpark of major championship proportions, which means this one certainly fits.
Aggressive: Adam Schenk (+450)
Scores of 66-67-68-66 were somehow only good enough to yield a T-13 at TPC Craig Ranch last week, but it shouldnโt take away from the fact that Schenk is starting to hit his stride. Heโs the type of player who doesnโt do any singular thing great but does everything pretty well, ranking between 27th and 60th in strokes gained numbers off the tee, around the greens and putting.ย
His season-long approach stats arenโt too special, but heโs now been positive with the irons in four straight starts, which uncoincidentally has corresponded with improved results. With a T-9 finish here two years ago, heโs already proven he can post a top-10 at Quail Hollow โ and that was a much bigger field.
Wells Fargo Championship Top 20 Picks
Conservative: Tommy Fleetwood (-110)
Sure, taking the worldโs 11th-ranked player for a top-20 in a 70-man field might be stretching the notion of conservatism, but weโll take a cashed ticket wherever we can find it. Fleetwood has finished T-14 and T-5 at this event in his past two starts, the latter of which started with a first round-leading 65 last year.ย
Still without a win on U.S. soil, the Englishman is a guy Iโll usually recommend fading in outright markets but often like for finishing position bets. If this top-20 play is too conservative for you, though, check out Corey Conners (+150), Akshay Bhatia (+130) and Cam Davis (+280).ย
Aggressive: Mackenzie Hughes (+275)
Years ago, before the implementation of advanced data in golf betting prognostications, the sleeping-in-his-own-bed theorem would carry a decent amount of weight. Itโs an easy connection: Essentially, those players with local ties not only carried greater motivation to succeed in front of the home crowd, but theyโre also more attuned to things like the type of grass on which a tournament in their proverbial backyard is being played.ย
Weโve learned through both results and anecdotal evidence that this often isnโt the case. A player being hounded by neighbors for tickets, one who still must take out the trash before he leaves for work, might not be completely focused on the task at hand like another player whoโs stuck in a hotel thinking wholly about golf.ย
All of that said, itโs still difficult to completely fade the nearby residents, especially when theyโre playing their home course. Thatโs the case for Hughes, who recently became a member at Quail Hollow and can be found playing money games with fellow members during his weeks at home.ย
Fresh off a final-round 64 at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, his game just happens to be coming around in time to put on a show for the Charlotte galleries. One of the better fast-greens putters around, donโt be surprised to see Hughes use his local knowledge on these putting surfaces to climb the leaderboard throughout the weekend.
Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Picks
Conservative: Alex Noren (+4000)
It wasnโt until he was 3-under through his first five holes on Thursday morning of last weekโs CJ Cup Byron Nelson that I was reminded of the recent golden rule about sprinkling a little on Noren for an FRL bet. His opening 64 left him one stroke shy of first-round leader Matt Wallace, but it was his sixth sub-70 opening total already this year and led to a solo third-place finish.ย
As I wrote in last weekโs preview, despite being a 10-time DP World Tour winner and former Ryder Cup team member, Noren might be playing the best golf of his life right now, finishing inside the top-25 in each of his last half-dozen starts. I like the idea of single-round investments here, just because heโs proven to be a hot starter, but if you want to keep riding him for top-10/20 finishing position bets, I certainly donโt dislike that plan, either.ย
Aggressive: Denny McCarthy (+5000)
Thereโs admittedly not much price differential between this weekโs conservative and aggressive FRL advisements, but McCarthy is a guy I often like in this market. Both the stats and his peers suggest that heโs one of the best putters on the planet and on a tough course where something in the mid-60s should cash these tickets, I like the idea of my chances on a guy whoโs known to roll in a bunch of mid-range birdies than one who grinds out a result with ball-striking over four days.ย
In fact, two years ago he opened with a 65 here, and while it wasnโt good enough for the early lead, it at least proves he can post a number.
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