- Arsenal is a -0.5-goal favorite against Liverpool.
- Liverpool thrashed Chelsea 4-1 at home in midweek.
- How to take advantage of the market undervaluing both defenses.
Before Sunday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide an Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction.
Hosts Arsenal cruised in their midweek match against Nottingham Forest, capturing a 2-0 lead before ultimately winning 2-1.
As for Liverpool, they delivered a dominant home performance against Chelsea. Without Mo Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold, they captured a 4-1 win.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at the Emirates Stadium and my best bet for the match.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Betting Odds
- Arsenal to Win: +125
- Liverpool to Win: +195
- Arsenal vs. Liverpool Draw: +260
- The Arsenal vs. Liverpool Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Arsenal vs. Liverpool is a Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (+110).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
The odd element of this market is that oddsmakers haven’t caught onto the fact both teams excel on defense.
This marks a natural sell-high spot on Liverpool, who will face an Arsenal side that doesn’t concede many chances at home.
Through 11 Premier League fixtures at the Emirates, the Gooners have surrendered only eight expected goals, per fbref.com.
Just against Manchester City, Brighton, Tottenham and Manchester United – their four hardest opponents – they’ve allowed only 3.5 expected goals.
Plus, manager Mikel Arteta’s side delivered a defensive masterclass in their reverse fixture at Anfield.
Against a full-strength Liverpool, they allowed only one expected goal.
At the same time, don’t expect much from this Arsenal attack, which ranks fifth in non-penalty expected goals.
On Sunday, they’ll face a Liverpool defense that ranks third in non-penalty expected goals against and held Arsenal to 0.7 xG at Anfield.
As a result, I’ll be surprised if this game sees four or more goals, and believe it’s much more likely you see two goals.
Regarding the Arsenal leg of this same game parlay, they’ve earned a point in all but one home match this season.
In their lone failure – a home loss to West Ham – they won the expected goals battle 2.7 to 1.4.
I’m unsure if they win the game outright, but I’ll be equally surprised if Liverpool captures a straight up road win – they have only six in 11 road matches this season.
Back this parlay at +100 or better on Sunday.
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