- Newcastle United is a -1.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
- Both teams earned convincing wins in midweek.
- Newcastle matches a few historically profitable betting systems.
Before Saturday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Newcastle United vs. Luton Town prediction.
Hosts Newcastle thrived in the midweek against Aston Villa, handing them their first loss of the season at Villa Park in a 3-1 win.
Luton Town, meanwhile, dominated a home match against Brighton & Hove Albion, winning 4-0 in the process.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at St. James’ Park and my best bet for the match.
Newcastle United vs. Luton Town Betting Odds
- Newcastle United to Win: -250
- Luton Town to Win: +625
- Newcastle United vs. Luton Town Draw: +400
- The Newcastle United vs. Luton Town Over/Under is 3.5 Goals
Newcastle United vs. Luton Town Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Newcastle United vs. Luton Town is Newcastle United’s Goal Line (-1.5, +100).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
This line is crazy to me, and I’m not going to let one positive performance from Luton Town sway my opinion of the EPL newcomers.
Simply put, Luton has struggled in road games against good teams from last year’s Premier League.
In five road matches against sides 10th or better in expected goal differential last season, they’re 0-5 straight up and have lost by multiple goals four times.
The underlying metrics back up their struggles. In those five games, Luton has a -2.16 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
The post-shot xG data, which measures only shots that hit the target, is worse.
Even if you take out a Brighton penalty, Luton still owns a -2.42 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Now they travel to face Newcastle, who absolutely dominated Villa and, as a result, matches a few different systems.
Since 2021-22, Newcastle are 11-3 ATS off a win as home favorites.
Plus, home favorites off a win as road dogs are 69% ATS over the same span, including 75.8% ATS when the opponent has a win percentage under 25%.
Lastly, of Newcastle’s eight home wins this season, five have come by multiple goals.
As a result, lay the goal-and-a-half with the Magpies at -110 or better.
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