- Man City is a -1.5-goal road favorite against Brentford.
- City earned a 3-1 home win over Burnley midweek, while Brentford lost at Spurs.
- Bet into this historically profitable betting system for the match.
Before Monday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Brentford vs. Man City prediction.
Visitors Manchester City cruised to a 3-1 home win over Burnley in the midweek but failed to cover thanks to a goal on the last kick of the game.
As for Brentford, they raced out to an early 1-0 advantage over Tottenham but ultimately lost 3-2.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Monday’s encounter at the Gtech Community Stadium and my best bet for the match.
Brentford vs. Man City Betting Odds
- Brentford to Win: +600
- Man City to Win: -250
- Brentford vs. Man City Draw: +380
- The Brentford vs. Man City Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Brentford vs. Man City Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Brentford vs. Man City is Brentford’s Goal Line (+1.5, -145).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
This is a very nerve-wracking bet to make, but history says it’s profitable over the long term.
Since 2017-18, blind betting every home underdog priced at +1.5 or higher on the spread sees bettors win at a 60% rate.
Since 2021-22, it’s a 65.8% win rate for those underdogs.
Even if you just sample Manchester City’s record as a road favorite of -1.5 or higher, bettors will find they’re 49.6% ATS since 2017-18 and 45.8% since 2021-22.
Brentford has also proved a very reliable underdog, particularly at home.
Since joining the top flight, manager Thomas Frank’s side is 10-5-1 ATS as home dogs, including 3-1 when they’re +1.5 or higher.
Although they’re 0-2 as home underdogs this season, they played both matches without talisman Ivan Toney.
Granted, the Brentford defense leaves a lot to be desired – they allowed 2.9 expected goals to Tottenham in the midweek – but reinforcements could be on the way.
They’ll surely deploy new loanee Sergio Reguilon at left-wing back (he couldn’t face parent club Tottenham) and right-wing back Aaron Hickey could return from injury.
That will undoubtedly see an improvement to their defense, which held Arsenal, Aston Villa and Tottenham to only 4.3 expected goals in three home fixtures.
Add in Brentford has created at least one expected goal in four straight matches, and I expect they can keep it close against City.
While I personally bet this market at -135, it’s worth it so long as it’s -145 or better.
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