English Premier League Prediction, Odds: My Best Bet for Arsenal vs. Manchester City

It’s the marquee fixture of the soccer weekend as I’m set to provide an English Premier League prediction for Arsenal vs. Manchester City. 

Title holders City enter this match at the top of the table on 18 points. Most recently, they earned a 3-1 win in the Champions League against RB Leipzig. 

Arsenal sits on 17 points, good for third in the league. In the midweek, the Gooners traveled to Lens and lost 2-1. 

Here’s how the soccer odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter, as well as my best bet. 

Arsenal vs. Manchester City Odds

• Three-Way Moneyline: Arsenal (+185), Tie (+250), Manchester City (+140)
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals (-130/-105)
• Both Teams to Score – “Yes”/“No” (-160/+110)

Arsenal vs. Manchester City Betting Prediction

Same-Game Parlay: Manchester City Double Chance & Total Under 3.5 Goals (+100) 

Trusting a Rodri-less City defense is slightly concerning, but Arsenal’s attack is massively overvalued. 

Although they sit second in expected goals for, a huge portion of that has come via penalty kicks. 

Remove those goals from the sample, and bettors will find Arsenal sits 10th in non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com. 

They’ll also (likely) play this match without key wingers Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. 

Even with that pair in the last two meetings, Arsenal combined to create 1.33 non-penalty expected goals against City, who did play Rodri in both meetings. 

Additionally, over the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs, Arsenal has posted zero outright wins, earning a point in only one of those meetings. 

Given those trends, I’ll be quite surprised if the Arsenal attack produces enough to claim all three points despite their outstanding home record. 

At the same time, the Arsenal defense is slowly finding their form. 

In two matches this season against Manchester United and Tottenham – the best teams they’ve faced to date – Arsenal surrendered only 1.15 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Last weekend, City went to Wolves – an objectively worse defense than Arsenal – and created only 0.9 expected goals. 

Even though Arsenal surrendered seven goals to City in two head-to-head meetings last season, that came off 4.3 expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Without key midfielder Kevin De Bruyne available, City’s offensive output likely regresses back to the mean. 

In addition, both teams are playing on short rest. That likely sees a low-event match and for the game to finish under 3.5 goals. 

For those reasons, take this same-game parlay at -110 or better on Sunday.