- Arsenal is a 1.5-goal home favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Arsenal has won 10 of its last 11 EPL Saturday home matches.
- My Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is for Forest to cover the spread.
It’s a clash in London between two top-five teams, with Arsenal hosting Nottingham Forest.
The hosts are winless in four league matches, including a 1-1 draw at Chelsea before the international break. In good news for Arsenal, they finished 2-0 against Forest last year.
The Tricky Trees have mounted a shock campaign to begin the season. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side sits fifth in the table and has yet to drop all three points away from home.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.
Premier League Odds: Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | +1.5 (-130) | 2.5 (-140) | +825 |
| Arsenal | -1.5 (-110) | 2.5 (+100) | -300 |
| Draw | +400 |
Premier League Betting: Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction
Based on Nottingham Forest’s strong defense and their metrics against Arsenal last year, my Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is the Forest Spread (+1.5, -130).
I’m shocked this spread isn’t closer to +1 or +1.25, given the strength of Forest’s defense.
Through 11 league matches, Forest sits second in expected goals against and third in post-shot expected goals against, per fbref.com.
They’ve also excelled under tough conditions as a road underdog.
Sample trips to Liverpool and Chelsea and bettors will find Santo’s side surrendered a mere 1.35 post-shot xG in 167 minutes at full strength.
Now they get an Arsenal side that’s struggled to create quality chances. The Gooners sit eighth in expected goals and fifth in post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
Forest is also well-equipped to defend Arsenal’s preferred method of attack. Arsenal rank fourth in xG from set pieces, but Forest ranks second in the corresponding defensive category.
Without those chances, I question how Arsenal runs up the score and covers a big spread.
History also likes this spot for Nottingham Forest.
Since 2012, dogs at +1.5 or +2 are 71.8% ATS, including 72% at +1.5, assuming four factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -3 and +0
- The underdog closed an underdog in their previous game
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
- The juice on the spread falls between -145 and +140
Just since the 2021 EPL season, those underdogs are 25-4-1 ATS.
Forest also stayed within this number in reality and on expected goals last season in both meetings, so I’ll back them to cover the spread.
