- Arsenal is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Arsenal has won six straight head-to-head matches against Wolves.
- I predict this prop market is the best bet for Saturday’s match.
Arsenal, a likely challenger this season based on Premier League title odds, begins their campaign at home against Wolves.
Historically, Arsenal have bossed Wolves. They’ve captured all three points six meetings in a row and in eight of the last nine meetings.
For Wolves, they’ll look to defy their lofty odds without two key players: winger Pedro Neto (sale) and potentially Matheus Cunha (injury).
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Arsenal vs. Wolves Odds, Premier League
- Arsenal Moneyline: -500
- Wolves Moneyline: +1250
- Draw Moneyline: +575
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (+110), No (-115)
Arsenal vs. Wolves Prediction: Correct Score
I predict Arsenal will win this match 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 (+160). However, bettors should wait to confirm if Cunha plays for Wolves.
Truth be told: I have little idea what to make of Wolves.
They sold Neto, who ranked second in expected assists last year amongst players with at least 10 starts. Defensively, they sold Max Kilman, who missed only one start in the last two years.
If Cunha doesn’t feature, it leaves manager Gary O’Neil with only one player who started more than 20 games and averaged more than 0.25 npxG per 90.
Even more concerning? They’re facing an Arsenal defense that surrendered only 0.68 npxGA per 90 minutes last season.
In the most recent head-to-head meeting — Wolves didn’t start Cunha or Neto — they managed only 0.17 expected goals off five shots.
Comparatively, Wolves managed 0.7 xG in the first meeting of last season. However, Cunha accounted for 60.6% of that total against an Arsenal side playing on short rest.
Presumably, that’s going to force Wolves into a low block and force Arsenal to break them down.
While it’s scary to fade an Arsenal attack that cleared 3.5 goals in nine matches last year, their underlying metrics suggest regression is on the way.
Last year, Arsenal scored 15.5 goals over post-shot expected thanks to poor opponent goalkeeping. That led the league by 5.6 goals.
Meanwhile, Wolves allowed only three opponents to score at least four goals last season.
Finally, of Wolves’ 18 losses this season, 44% came by one of these three scores, including the most recent meeting vs. Arsenal.
Seeing as the implied probability of these odds is 38.5%, I’ll lean toward Arsenal capturing a straightforward win without many fireworks.
Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 11 vs. Lyon: 2-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Liverpool: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- July 24 vs. Bournemouth: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Wolves Record, Last 4 Matches
- Aug. 10 vs. Rayo Vallecano: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at RB Leipzig: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 at Crystal Palace: 1-3, L (Friendly)
- July 27 at West Ham United: 3-1, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Arsenal odds and Wolverhampton Wanderers odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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