- Aston Villa is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Arsenal.
- Villa, under former Arsenal manager Unai Emery, won both meetings last year.
- My prediction for Saturday’s match comes on the three-way moneyline.
In the marquee fixture of Matchday 2, Arsenal travels to face Aston Villa at Villa Park.
The Gooners struggled immensely against Villa last year. Former Arsenal manager Unai Emery, now with Villa, guided his side to six points from six against Arsenal.
Both teams arrive at Saturday’s match coming off wins. Arsenal earned a 2-0 win vs. Wolves on Matchday 1 while Villa survived a late onslaught to win 2-1 at West Ham.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +310
- Arsenal Moneyline: -125
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Saturday’s match is the Arsenal moneyline (-120).
I debated between Arsenal to win and Arsenal over 1.5 goals (-135).
However, the bets are so correlated — Arsenal were 23-3-0 (W-D-L) last year when scoring two or more goals — that I’ll take the cheaper price.
Either way, Villa’s luck in the last meeting cannot be overstated.
They won the match 2-0 but lost the expected goals battle 1.64 to 0.94 and the post-shot expected goals battle 1.98 to 0.97, per fotmob.com.
In the first 45 minutes, Arsenal won the xG battle 1.45 to 0.3 and the psxG battle 1.82 to 0.
I recognize the match was played at Arsenal, but the match likely plays out differently if Arsenal convert those chances and take a halftime lead.
Arsenal spent 40% of last season playing with a lead. They posted a +0.75 xGDiff per 90 in those minutes and generated 2.47 xG per 90 minutes, per understat.com.
On Saturday; they’ll face a Villa team that has struggled to defend without central midfielder Boubacar Kamara.
In 18 games last season without Kamara, Villa allowed 1.8 xGA per 90 minutes with 15 teams creating at least 1.5.
They also allowed 1.87 psxG per 90 minutes with 10 of 18 teams creating at least two psxG per 90.
In 20 matches with Kamara, their xGA average per 90 drops to 1.38 with their psxGA average dropping to 1.3.
Barring another Emi Martinez masterclass, Arsenal should take the lead and force Villa to possess the ball.
Given their strength with a lead, I trust the visitors to earn all three points on Saturday.
Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 18 vs. West Ham United: 2-1, W
- Aug. 10 at Dortmund: 0-2, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Athletic Club: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at America: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- July 31 at RB Leipzig: 0-2, L (Friendly)
Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
- Aug. 11 vs. Lyon: 2-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Liverpool: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Aston Villa odds and Arsenal odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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