Aston Villa vs. Everton Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring his second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
  • Aston Villa is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Everton.
  • Aston Villa earned four points from a possible six against Everton last season.
  • I predict Aston Villa will win in a high-scoring game.

Following the first international break, Aston Villa welcomes Everton to Villa Park.ย 

Prior to the break, Villa captured all three points in a 2-1 win at Leicester City, their second win in three matches.

Meanwhile, Everton made history by losing a big lead in a very short amount of time. Up 2-0, they conceded three goals in 10 minutes to lose against Bournemouth.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturdayโ€™s match.ย 

Aston Villa vs. Everton Odds, Premier League

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: -210
  • Everton Moneyline: +525
  • Draw Moneyline: +350
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-160/+115)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-130), No (-110)

Aston Villa vs. Everton Prediction: Same Game Parlay

My prediction for Aston Villa vs. Everton is Aston Villa to Win and Both Teams to Score (+195).ย 

Since when are we trusting the Aston Villa defense this much?ย 

The first element of this handicap is easy: Villa are going to score. Under Unai Emery, Villa has failed to score only once in 33 home matches.ย 

Additionally, it should be noted Villa matches tend to explode when theyโ€™re a favorite. Across their previous 26 matches as favorites, 22 have cleared 2.5 goals.ย 

Plus, opponents are getting on the scoresheet consistently when Villa operate without Boubacar Kamara.ย 

Sample their previous 21 matches without Kamara and bettors will find theyโ€™ve kept a clean sheet only two times.ย 

Both of those successes were undeserved based on post-shot expected goals.ย 

In terms of the Aston Villa moneyline, Emeryโ€™s side matches three historically profitable systems.ย 

First, home favorites between -330 and +114 with 13-15 days between games are 73.1% SU, assuming their previous game margin fell between -1 and +2.ย 

Second, favorites between -230 and +172 in games 1-20 are 65.6% SU, assuming three factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was +0 or +1
  • The favoriteโ€™s previous game margin is between +1 and +4
  • The underdogโ€™s previous game margin is between -4 and -1

Finally, home favorites priced between -250 and -103 in games 2-10 are 46-10 SU (82.1%), assuming three factors:

  • The underdogโ€™s previous game margin is between -4 and +0
  • The underdog closed an underdog in their previous game
  • The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +4

Based on those outputs, expect Aston Villa to capture their third win in as many tries on Saturday.ย 

Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 31 at Leicester City: 2-1, W
  • Aug. 24 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L
  • Aug. 17 at West Ham United: 2-1, W
  • Aug. 10 at Dortmund: 0-2, L (Friendly)
  • Aug. 7 vs. Athletic Club: 3-2, W (Friendly)

Everton Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 31 vs. Bournemouth: 2-3, L
  • Aug. 27 vs. Doncaster: 3-0, W (EFL Cup)
  • Aug. 24 at Tottenham: 0-4, L
  • Aug. 17 vs. Brighton: 0-3, L
  • Aug. 10 vs. Roma: 1-1, D (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Aston Villa odds and Everton odds!

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrightonChelseaFeb. 143 p.m.Amex Stadium
Leicester CityArsenalFeb. 157:30 a.m.King Power Stadium
Aston VillaIpswich TownFeb. 1510 a.m.Villa Park
FulhamNottingham ForestFeb. 1510 a.m.Craven Cottage
Man CityNewcastle UnitedFeb. 1510 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonBournemouthFeb. 1510 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
West Ham UnitedBrentfordFeb. 1510 a.m.London Stadium
Crystal PalaceEvertonFeb. 1512:30 p.m.Selhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesFeb. 169 a.m.Anfield
TottenhamManchester UnitedFeb. 1611:30 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool17-5-15635
Arsenal14-8-25027
Nottingham Forest14-5-54713
Chelsea12-7-54316
Manchester City12-5-74113
Newcastle United12-5-74113
Bournemouth11-7-64013
Aston Villa10-7-737-3
Fulham9-9-6364
Brighton8-10-634-3
Brentford9-4-11310
Crystal Palace7-9-830-2
Manchester United8-5-1129-6
Tottenham8-3-132711
West Ham United7-6-1127-17
Everton6-8-926-5
Wolves5-4-1519-18
Leicester City3-5-1517-28
Ipswich Town3-7-1416-27
Southampton2-3-199-36

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal9-10-547.9%3-6-337.5%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-15-135.4%3-8-129.2%5-7-041.7%
Bournemouth16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-8-262.5%8-5-061.5%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-11-152.1%4-7-036.4%8-4-165.4%
Chelsea9-13-241.7%4-7-137.5%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace13-8-360.4%4-5-345.8%9-3-075.0%
Everton12-9-256.5%6-5-154.2%6-4-159.1%
Fulham14-8-262.5%5-7-041.7%8-2-275.0%
Ipswich Town10-13-143.8%4-9-030.8%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-12-147.9%5-7-041.7%6-5-154.2%
Liverpool13-9-158.7%5-5-150.0%8-4-066.7%
Manchester City7-17-029.2%3-8-027.3%4-9-030.8%
Manchester United10-12-245.8%5-7-142.3%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-10-156.3%7-5-058.3%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Southampton9-12-343.8%2-8-122.7%7-4-261.5%
Tottenham Hotspur9-15-037.5%4-8-033.3%5-7-041.7%
West Ham United12-11-152.1%4-7-137.5%8-4-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers10-12-245.8%5-6-145.8%5-6-145.8%
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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.