- Aston Villa is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Everton.
- Aston Villa earned four points from a possible six against Everton last season.
- I predict Aston Villa will win in a high-scoring game.
Following the first international break, Aston Villa welcomes Everton to Villa Park.
Prior to the break, Villa captured all three points in a 2-1 win at Leicester City, their second win in three matches.
Meanwhile, Everton made history by losing a big lead in a very short amount of time. Up 2-0, they conceded three goals in 10 minutes to lose against Bournemouth.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Aston Villa vs. Everton Odds, Premier League
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -210
- Everton Moneyline: +525
- Draw Moneyline: +350
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-160/+115)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-130), No (-110)
Aston Villa vs. Everton Prediction: Same Game Parlay
My prediction for Aston Villa vs. Everton is Aston Villa to Win and Both Teams to Score (+195).
Since when are we trusting the Aston Villa defense this much?
The first element of this handicap is easy: Villa are going to score. Under Unai Emery, Villa has failed to score only once in 33 home matches.
Additionally, it should be noted Villa matches tend to explode when they’re a favorite. Across their previous 26 matches as favorites, 22 have cleared 2.5 goals.
Plus, opponents are getting on the scoresheet consistently when Villa operate without Boubacar Kamara.
Sample their previous 21 matches without Kamara and bettors will find they’ve kept a clean sheet only two times.
Both of those successes were undeserved based on post-shot expected goals.
In terms of the Aston Villa moneyline, Emery’s side matches three historically profitable systems.
First, home favorites between -330 and +114 with 13-15 days between games are 73.1% SU, assuming their previous game margin fell between -1 and +2.
Second, favorites between -230 and +172 in games 1-20 are 65.6% SU, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was +0 or +1
- The favorite’s previous game margin is between +1 and +4
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between -4 and -1
Finally, home favorites priced between -250 and -103 in games 2-10 are 46-10 SU (82.1%), assuming three factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between -4 and +0
- The underdog closed an underdog in their previous game
- The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +4
Based on those outputs, expect Aston Villa to capture their third win in as many tries on Saturday.
Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 at Leicester City: 2-1, W
- Aug. 24 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L
- Aug. 17 at West Ham United: 2-1, W
- Aug. 10 at Dortmund: 0-2, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Athletic Club: 3-2, W (Friendly)
Everton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 vs. Bournemouth: 2-3, L
- Aug. 27 vs. Doncaster: 3-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 at Tottenham: 0-4, L
- Aug. 17 vs. Brighton: 0-3, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Roma: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Aston Villa odds and Everton odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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