- Aston Villa is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Villa have seen 23 of their last 28 matches clear 2.5 goals as a favorite.
- I predict bettors will see another high-scoring contest on Saturday.
Riding a three-game winning streak in all competitions, Aston Villa welcomes Wolves to Villa Park on Saturday.
Unai Emery’s squad has captured two straight league wins and delivered a 3-0 win against Young Boys in their opening Champions League match.
Wolves’ current form leaves something to be desired. Gary O’Neil’s side is winless in three straight in all competitions and only has one point in the league.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Wolves prediction.
Aston Villa vs. Wolves Odds, Premier League
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -175
- Wolves Moneyline: +425
- Draw Moneyline: +340
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-165), No (+115)
Aston Villa vs. Wolves Prediction: Same Game Parlay
My Aston Villa vs. Wolves prediction is a Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110).
Until Villa reverses trends, I’ll continue to back the over in matches where they close a market favorite.
Under Unai Emery, Villa have seen 30 of 40 matches clear 2.5 goals when favored, including 23 of the last 28 matches.
One failure came against Wolves in the previous meeting. But don’t let the 2-0 scoreline fool you: Wolves were unlucky to be kept off the scoresheet.
O’Neil’s side, which didn’t feature Matheus Cunha or Hwang Hee-Chang, still managed to amass 1.5 expected goals and three big scoring chances.
Villa goalkeeper Emi Martinez saved 1.4 goals over expected, too, so it wasn’t as if Wolves were taking low-quality shots.
That also remains one of only two Villa clean sheets in 22 league matches without Boubacar Kamara, both of which were undeserved by post-shot expected goals.
With Villa playing three matches in a week, Wolves should score.
At the same time, Villa’s attacking is flying right now.
They’ve cleared two post-shot xG in consecutive league matches, while Wolves have struggled against even inferior attacks.
Nottingham Forest created 1.7 psxG against Wolves, who also surrendered at least 1.7 psxG to Chelsea, Arsenal and Newcastle.
Add in only five teams surrendered more expected goals away from home than Wolves last season, and I’ll back this match to clear 2.5 goals.
Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 17 at Young Boys: 3-0, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 14 vs. Everton: 3-2, W
- Aug. 31 at Leicester City: 2-1, W
- Aug. 24 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L
- Aug. 17 at West Ham: 2-1, W
Wolves Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 18 at Brighton: 2-3, L (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 15 vs. Newcastle: 1-2, L
- Aug. 31 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
- Aug. 28 vs. Burnley: 2-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 25 vs. Chelsea: 2-6, L
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Aston Villa odds and Wolverhampton Wanderers odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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