Brentford vs. Fulham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Brentford's Ivan Toney during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Brentford at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 2:57 PM
  • Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
  • Brentford earned a 3-0 road win against Fulham back on Matchday 2.
  • History suggests one side is undervalued for Saturday’s fixture.

It’s a London derby at the Gtech Community Stadium, with Brentford set to host Fulham on Saturday. 

Both teams dropped points in their last fixtures. The Bees traveled to Everton and fell 1-0 as road favorites while Fulham surrendered a late goal to Crystal Palace to draw 1-1. 

The last time these sides met, Brentford handed Fulham a 3-0 defeat at Craven Cottage. However, two goals came whilst playing up a man. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Fulham

  • Brentford Moneyline: +110
  • Fulham Moneyline: +220
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)

EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Fulham

Brentford Moneyline (+110)

This is your classic buy-low spot on Brentford. 

Even if you only sample the part of their Matchday 2 trip to Fulham where they played 11v11, bettors will find Brentford dominated. 

They created 1.18 expected goals in those first 63 minutes while holding Fulham to only 0.35 expected goals, per 

Now they get to face a Fulham defense that has struggled in their recent road fixtures. 

Sample the Cottages’ six previous road matches, and bettors will find they’ve allowed at least 1.5 expected goals four times. 

Plus, one of their successes came against a West Ham side playing on short rest, so I expect Brentford’s offensive output will prove closer to 1.5 than to one xG. 

This also remains a Brentford side that enters Saturday’s fixture a major positive regression candidate, particularly at home. 

Manager Thomas Frank’s side owns a -8 goal differential this season compared to a +4.7 expected goal differential. 

At home, it’s a -3 goal differential compared to a +4 expected goal differential, per 

Brentford also matches a historically profitable betting system. 

Since the 2018-19 season, favorites sitting between +140 and -300 off a defeat are 147-79 SU, assuming they won the previous head-to-head meeting. 

This season, those favorites are 27-11 SU. 

When their opponent failed to win their previous game, those teams improve to 99-52 SU, including 19-11 SU this season. 

For those reasons, back the Bees as home favorites on Saturday. 

Brentford Form 

April 27 at Everton: 0-1, L

April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W

April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W

April 6 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D

April 3 vs. Brighton: 0-0, D

Fulham Form

April 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

April 21 vs. Liverpool: 1-3, L

April 14 at West Ham United: 2-0, W

April 6 vs. Newcastle United: 0-1, L

April 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.