Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awoniyi, centre, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 2:58 PM
  • Nottingham Forest is a -0.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
  • Forest earned a 2-1 home win against Sheffield on Matchday 2.
  • Why bettors should expect major positive regression for one side.

With manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s side attempting to stave off relegation, he’ll take Nottingham Forest to Sheffield United on Saturday. 

Only one side – Forest – has motivation for this game. Sheffield United’s fate has already been decided as they’ll play next season in the English second tier. 

Both teams struggled in their last league fixture. Forest lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City while Sheffield took a 1-0 lead at Newcastle, but ultimately lost 5-1. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United

  • Nottingham Forest Moneyline: -155
  • Sheffield United Moneyline: +375
  • Draw Moneyline: +320
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)

EPL Prediction – Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United

Same Game Parlay: Nottingham Forest Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-120)

This is the ultimate buy-low spot on a Forest side that has run unlucky all season and finally finds itself in a get-right spot. 

This season, the Tricky Trees have posted a -20 goal differential, the fourth-worst mark in the Premier League. 

However, that comes against a -3 expected goal differential, the 12th-best mark in the Premier League and better than two top-half sides, per 

Sample only their previous six matches and bettors will find they’ve recorded a -4 goal differential compared to a +3.6 expected goal differential. 

At home to Manchester City, they lost the match 2-0 but won the expected goals battle 1.9 to 0.9. 

Now they get a Sheffield side that they bossed in their previous meeting. Albeit at home, Forest won the xG battle 1.4 to 0.5 and the psxG battle 2.05 to 1.53, per 

With little motivation left for Sheffield United, bettors should expect a similar outcome. 

Plus, Forest match two historically profitable betting systems with a third suggesting a fade of Sheffield United. 

Since 2012-13, favorites in games 16-38 that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 87-55-13 SU, assuming both teams lost their previous game. 

When they’re the road team, they cover at a 71.1% clip. 

One more: since 2012-13, half-goal favorites in March-May that won the previous meeting and closed a dog in their previous game are 46-25 ATS, including 14-7 away from home. 

Finally, fading underdogs that have allowed at least three goals in two straight games and closed a dog in their last game sees bettors go 101-68 SU since 2012-13. 

As a result, back the visitors to earn all three points as they attempt to secure Premier League football next season. 

Nottingham Forest Form 

April 28 vs. Man City: 0-2, L

April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D

April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L

April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W

Sheffield United Form

April 27 at Newcastle United: 1-5, L

April 24 at Manchester United: 2-4, L

April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L

April 13 at Brentford: 0-2, L

April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

With around-the-clock matches throughout the year, there’s never a break in soccer betting action at BetMGM.

You can view updated soccer odds for the Champions League, MLS, World Cup, and other leagues and events around the world.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.

Visit the sportsbook today to place your bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.