- Nottingham Forest is a -0.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
- Forest earned a 2-1 home win against Sheffield on Matchday 2.
- Why bettors should expect major positive regression for one side.
With manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s side attempting to stave off relegation, he’ll take Nottingham Forest to Sheffield United on Saturday.Â
Only one side – Forest – has motivation for this game. Sheffield United’s fate has already been decided as they’ll play next season in the English second tier.Â
Both teams struggled in their last league fixture. Forest lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City while Sheffield took a 1-0 lead at Newcastle, but ultimately lost 5-1.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: -155
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +375
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
EPL Prediction – Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United
Same Game Parlay: Nottingham Forest Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-120)
This is the ultimate buy-low spot on a Forest side that has run unlucky all season and finally finds itself in a get-right spot.Â
This season, the Tricky Trees have posted a -20 goal differential, the fourth-worst mark in the Premier League.Â
However, that comes against a -3 expected goal differential, the 12th-best mark in the Premier League and better than two top-half sides, per fbref.com.Â
Sample only their previous six matches and bettors will find they’ve recorded a -4 goal differential compared to a +3.6 expected goal differential.Â
At home to Manchester City, they lost the match 2-0 but won the expected goals battle 1.9 to 0.9.Â
Now they get a Sheffield side that they bossed in their previous meeting. Albeit at home, Forest won the xG battle 1.4 to 0.5 and the psxG battle 2.05 to 1.53, per fotmob.com.Â
With little motivation left for Sheffield United, bettors should expect a similar outcome.Â
Plus, Forest match two historically profitable betting systems with a third suggesting a fade of Sheffield United.Â
Since 2012-13, favorites in games 16-38 that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 87-55-13 SU, assuming both teams lost their previous game.Â
When they’re the road team, they cover at a 71.1% clip.Â
One more: since 2012-13, half-goal favorites in March-May that won the previous meeting and closed a dog in their previous game are 46-25 ATS, including 14-7 away from home.Â
Finally, fading underdogs that have allowed at least three goals in two straight games and closed a dog in their last game sees bettors go 101-68 SU since 2012-13.Â
As a result, back the visitors to earn all three points as they attempt to secure Premier League football next season.Â
Nottingham Forest FormÂ
April 28 vs. Man City: 0-2, L
April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L
April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D
April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L
April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W
Sheffield United Form
April 27 at Newcastle United: 1-5, L
April 24 at Manchester United: 2-4, L
April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L
April 13 at Brentford: 0-2, L
April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Arsenal | Everton | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Emirates Stadium |
Man City | West Ham United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Etihad Stadium |
Brentford | Newcastle United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | GTech Community Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Amex Stadium |
Burnley | Nottingham Forest | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Turf Moor |
Chelsea | Bournemouth | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Stamford Bridge |
Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Selhurst Park |
Liverpool | Wolves | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Anfield |
Luton Town | Fulham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Kenilworth Road |
Sheffield United | Tottenham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Bramall Lane |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential | Notes |
Manchester City | 27-7-3 | 88 | 60 | --- |
Arsenal FC | 27-5-5 | 86 | 61 | --- |
Liverpool FC | 23-10-4 | 79 | 43 | --- |
Aston Villa FC | 20-8-9 | 68 | 20 | --- |
Tottenham Hotspur | 19-6-12 | 63 | 10 | --- |
Chelsea FC | 17-9-11 | 60 | 13 | --- |
Newcastle United | 17-6-14 | 57 | 21 | --- |
Manchester United | 17-6-14 | 57 | -3 | --- |
West Ham United | 14-10-13 | 52 | -12 | --- |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-12-12 | 48 | -4 | --- |
Bournemouth | 13-9-15 | 48 | -12 | --- |
Crystal Palace | 12-10-15 | 46 | -6 | --- |
Wolves | 13-7-17 | 46 | -13 | --- |
Fulham FC | 12-8-17 | 44 | -8 | --- |
Everton | 13-9-15 | 40 | -10 | 8 Point Deduction |
Brentford | 10-9-18 | 39 | -7 | --- |
Nottingham Forest | 8-9-20 | 29 | -19 | 4 Point Deduction |
Luton Town | 6-8-23 | 26 | -31 | --- |
Burnley FC | 5-9-23 | 24 | -36 | --- |
Sheffield United | 3-7-27 | 16 | -66 | --- |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 22-14-1 | .608 | 10-7-1 | .583 | 12-7 | .632 |
Aston Villa | 19-17-1 | .527 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-10-1 | .417 |
Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | .541 | 9-8-2 | .526 | 10-8 | .556 |
Brentford | 14-21-2 | .405 | 6-11-1 | .361 | 8-10-1 | .447 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 15-20-2 | .432 | 8-9-1 | .472 | 7-11-1 | .395 |
Burnley | 18-19 | .486 | 5-13 | .278 | 13-6 | .684 |
Chelsea | 19-18 | .514 | 10-8 | .556 | 9-10 | .474 |
Crystal Palace | 20-17 | .541 | 9-9 | .500 | 11-8 | .579 |
Everton | 17-20 | .459 | 10-9 | .526 | 7-11 | .389 |
Fulham | 18-18-1 | .500 | 10-8-1 | .553 | 8-10 | .444 |
Liverpool | 18-19 | .486 | 10-8 | .556 | 8-11 | .421 |
Luton Town | 22-14-1 | .608 | 13-5 | .722 | 9-9-1 | .500 |
Manchester City | 19-18 | .514 | 8-10 | .444 | 11-8 | .579 |
Manchester United | 17-20 | .459 | 9-10 | .474 | 8-10 | .444 |
Newcastle United | 18-19 | .486 | 12-7 | .632 | 6-12 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 15-20-2 | .432 | 5-13-1 | .289 | 10-7-1 | .583 |
Sheffield United | 19-18 | .514 | 9-9 | .500 | 10-9 | .526 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
West Ham United | 19-18 | .514 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-11 | .389 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
Related Articles
- Brentford vs. Fulham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview
- Man City vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview
- Aston Villa vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview
- Liverpool vs. Tottenham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview
Soccer Odds at BetMGM
With around-the-clock matches throughout the year, there’s never a break in soccer betting action at BetMGM.
You can view updated soccer odds for the Champions League, MLS, World Cup, and other leagues and events around the world.
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.
Visit the sportsbook today to place your bet online!