- Brentford is a +0.5-goal underdog against Newcastle United.
- Newcastle has won four straight meetings against Brentford.
- The case for bettors to trust in the Brentford attack on Sunday.
As they attempt to lock in a spot in the Europa Conference League, Newcastle United will travel to face Brentford on Championship Sunday.
The visitors have struggled in their recent fixtures. They drew 1-1 with Brighton at home last weekend and fell 3-2 at Manchester United on Wednesday.
Brentford, meanwhile, won 2-1 at Bournemouth last week and have earned all three points in three of their previous five matches.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s clash.
EPL Odds – Brentford vs. Newcastle United
- Brentford Moneyline: +190
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +115
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)
Premier League Prediction – Brentford vs. Newcastle United
LEAN Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-110)
The price isn’t quite good enough for me to trust a Brentford attack that has struggled recently, but an easy defensive opponent could lead to an open game.
That said, the Bees have shown recently they’re a decent offense as underdogs against a bad defense.
Not since April 6 at Aston Villa have Brentford closed an underdog against a team 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.
Manager Thomas Frank’s side exploded for three goals off 2.2 post-shot expected goals away from home.
Since the calendar flipped to 2024, Brentford have played five matches as underdogs against teams fitting the aforementioned criteria.
They’ve cleared 1.5 goals in three of those five — they’ve never failed to score — but have created at least 1.5 xG in all five.
Plus, Frank’s squad is generally better at home, where they average 0.2 xG per 90 more compared to their road efforts.
Slightly worrisome is that they only created 0.5 xG in the reverse fixture at St. James’ Park, but this Newcastle defense is markedly worse away from home.
They allowed 1.4 xG to Manchester United in the midweek and have kept only two Premier League road clean sheets this season.
Twelve of Newcastle’s 18 road opponents to date have cleared this number, including some sides that rank below Brentford in terms of the underlying metrics.
Of those 12 teams, eight sit below Brentford in terms of non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
On short rest playing back-to-back road games, Newcastle would surprise me if they kept Brentford to only a solitary home goal.
As a result, it’s the Brentford team total or nothing for me on Sunday.
Brentford Form
May 11 at Bournemouth: 2-1, W
May 4 vs. Fulham: 0-0, D
April 27 at Everton: 0-1, L
April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W
April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W
Newcastle United Form
May 15 at Manchester United: 2-3, L
May 11 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
May 4 at Burnley: 4-1, W
April 27 vs. Sheffield United: 5-1, W
April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Fulham | Everton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Brentford | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Southampton | Manchester City | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Brighton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | May. 10 | 12:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Chelsea | May. 11 | 7 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leicester City | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester United | West Ham United | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Liverpool | Arsenal | May. 11 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-3 | 82 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-4 | 67 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-7-9 | 64 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-7-10 | 61 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 17-9-9 | 60 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-10 | 53 | 12 |
| Brentford | 15-7-13 | 52 | 9 |
| Brighton | 13-14-8 | 52 | 1 |
| Fulham | 14-9-12 | 51 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-13-11 | 46 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-18 | 41 | -11 |
| Everton | 8-15-12 | 39 | -7 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-16 | 39 | -9 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-19 | 38 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-10-16 | 37 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-21 | 22 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 5-6-24 | 21 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-5-28 | 11 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-17-6 | 42.9% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 19-14-2 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-2 | 65.7% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 19-15-1 | 55.7% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 13-19-3 | 41.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-12-6 | 57.1% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-2 | 42.9% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-17-2 | 48.6% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-23-0 | 34.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-17-4 | 45.7% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 20-14-1 | 58.6% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-13-0 | 62.9% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 12-19-4 | 40.0% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-21-1 | 38.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 17-16-2 | 51.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-13-3 | 58.6% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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