Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awoniyi, centre, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 16, 2024, 2:01 PM
  • Burnley is a +0.5-goal underdog against Nottingham Forest.
  • These sides played to a 1-1 draw at the City Ground in the reverse fixture.
  • Why bettors should expect positive regression from Forest.

For their final home fixture in the Premier League, Burnley welcomes Nottingham Forest to Turf Moor. 

The Clarets have already received their fate and will play in England’s second tier next season. As for Forest, they’re all but safe — only a six-goal loss paired with a Luton six-goal win would see them relegated. 

The last time these sides played, Burnley did well and earned a point at the City Ground. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Odds – Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest

  • Burnley Moneyline: +175
  • Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +135
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)

Premier League Prediction – Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+135) | Nottingham Forest Team Total Over 1.5 (-120) | Nottingham Forest 1H Over 0.5 (-135)

Forest has experienced such bad luck this season, and I rate this as the spot where they positively regress. 

Although most of that misfortune has come on the defensive end — 66 goals against 52.7 expected — their offense should shine at Turf Moor. 

Since appointing Nuno Espirito Santo, Forest has played 11 games against teams 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

They’ve failed to score a first half goal only once in those 11 games and have notched a first-half goal in nine straight contests. 

In terms of the team total, Forest have cleared this number in all but two of those 11 matches while creating 1.91 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

The only two teams they failed to clear 1.5 goals were at Luton Town and at Tottenham where they combined for two goals off 3.5 expected, per fbref.com. 

Given Burnley have nothing other than pride motivating them for Sunday’s match, expect continued struggles from their defense, which sits 18th in npxGA per 90 minutes. 

In terms of the Forest moneyline, there’s a sizable gap between these sides in their underlying metrics. 

For the entire season, Forest are at a -0.1 xGDiff per 90 minutes while Burnley have posted a -0.79 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

Plus, Forest have played eight matches against sides 11th or worse in npxGF per 90 minutes under Espirito Santo. 

They’ve won four of those matches outright and have dropped all three points only once. Sample only their previous five such matches, and bettors will find they’re 3-2-0 (W-D-L). 

Finally, the Forest moneyline matches a historically profitable system. 

Since 2012-13, favorites with a 10-game winning percentage under 39% that have scored at least two goals in two straight games are 33-16 SU. 

As a result, I’ll back the visitors to earn all three points and guarantee safety. 

Burnley Form 

May 11 at Tottenham: 1-2, L

May 4 vs. Newcastle: 1-4, L

April 27 at Manchester United: 1-1, D

April 20 at Sheffield United: 4-1, W

April 13 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D

Nottingham Forest Form

May 11 vs. Chelsea: 2-3, L

May 4 at Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W

April 28 vs. Manchester City: 0-2, L

April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.