Brentford vs. Newcastle United Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Brentford's Ivan Toney during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Brentford at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 17, 2024, 4:52 PM
  • Brentford is a +0.5-goal underdog against Newcastle United.
  • Newcastle has won four straight meetings against Brentford.
  • The case for bettors to trust in the Brentford attack on Sunday.

As they attempt to lock in a spot in the Europa Conference League, Newcastle United will travel to face Brentford on Championship Sunday. 

The visitors have struggled in their recent fixtures. They drew 1-1 with Brighton at home last weekend and fell 3-2 at Manchester United on Wednesday. 

Brentford, meanwhile, won 2-1 at Bournemouth last week and have earned all three points in three of their previous five matches. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s clash. 

EPL Odds – Brentford vs. Newcastle United

  • Brentford Moneyline: +190
  • Newcastle United Moneyline: +115
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)

Premier League Prediction – Brentford vs. Newcastle United

LEAN Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-110)

The price isn’t quite good enough for me to trust a Brentford attack that has struggled recently, but an easy defensive opponent could lead to an open game. 

That said, the Bees have shown recently they’re a decent offense as underdogs against a bad defense. 

Not since April 6 at Aston Villa have Brentford closed an underdog against a team 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes. 

Manager Thomas Frank’s side exploded for three goals off 2.2 post-shot expected goals away from home. 

Since the calendar flipped to 2024, Brentford have played five matches as underdogs against teams fitting the aforementioned criteria. 

They’ve cleared 1.5 goals in three of those five — they’ve never failed to score — but have created at least 1.5 xG in all five. 

Plus, Frank’s squad is generally better at home, where they average 0.2 xG per 90 more compared to their road efforts. 

Slightly worrisome is that they only created 0.5 xG in the reverse fixture at St. James’ Park, but this Newcastle defense is markedly worse away from home. 

They allowed 1.4 xG to Manchester United in the midweek and have kept only two Premier League road clean sheets this season. 

Twelve of Newcastle’s 18 road opponents to date have cleared this number, including some sides that rank below Brentford in terms of the underlying metrics. 

Of those 12 teams, eight sit below Brentford in terms of non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, per 

On short rest playing back-to-back road games, Newcastle would surprise me if they kept Brentford to only a solitary home goal. 

As a result, it’s the Brentford team total or nothing for me on Sunday. 

Brentford Form 

May 11 at Bournemouth: 2-1, W

May 4 vs. Fulham: 0-0, D

April 27 at Everton: 0-1, L

April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W

April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W

Newcastle United Form

May 15 at Manchester United: 2-3, L

May 11 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D

May 4 at Burnley: 4-1, W

April 27 vs. Sheffield United: 5-1, W

April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.