- Brentford is a +0.5-goal underdog against Newcastle United.
- Newcastle has won four straight meetings against Brentford.
- The case for bettors to trust in the Brentford attack on Sunday.
As they attempt to lock in a spot in the Europa Conference League, Newcastle United will travel to face Brentford on Championship Sunday.Â
The visitors have struggled in their recent fixtures. They drew 1-1 with Brighton at home last weekend and fell 3-2 at Manchester United on Wednesday.Â
Brentford, meanwhile, won 2-1 at Bournemouth last week and have earned all three points in three of their previous five matches.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s clash.Â
EPL Odds – Brentford vs. Newcastle United
- Brentford Moneyline: +190
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +115
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)
Premier League Prediction – Brentford vs. Newcastle United
LEAN Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-110)
The price isn’t quite good enough for me to trust a Brentford attack that has struggled recently, but an easy defensive opponent could lead to an open game.Â
That said, the Bees have shown recently they’re a decent offense as underdogs against a bad defense.Â
Not since April 6 at Aston Villa have Brentford closed an underdog against a team 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.Â
Manager Thomas Frank’s side exploded for three goals off 2.2 post-shot expected goals away from home.Â
Since the calendar flipped to 2024, Brentford have played five matches as underdogs against teams fitting the aforementioned criteria.Â
They’ve cleared 1.5 goals in three of those five — they’ve never failed to score — but have created at least 1.5 xG in all five.Â
Plus, Frank’s squad is generally better at home, where they average 0.2 xG per 90 more compared to their road efforts.Â
Slightly worrisome is that they only created 0.5 xG in the reverse fixture at St. James’ Park, but this Newcastle defense is markedly worse away from home.Â
They allowed 1.4 xG to Manchester United in the midweek and have kept only two Premier League road clean sheets this season.Â
Twelve of Newcastle’s 18 road opponents to date have cleared this number, including some sides that rank below Brentford in terms of the underlying metrics.Â
Of those 12 teams, eight sit below Brentford in terms of non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.Â
On short rest playing back-to-back road games, Newcastle would surprise me if they kept Brentford to only a solitary home goal.Â
As a result, it’s the Brentford team total or nothing for me on Sunday.Â
Brentford FormÂ
May 11 at Bournemouth: 2-1, W
May 4 vs. Fulham: 0-0, D
April 27 at Everton: 0-1, L
April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W
April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W
Newcastle United Form
May 15 at Manchester United: 2-3, L
May 11 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
May 4 at Burnley: 4-1, W
April 27 vs. Sheffield United: 5-1, W
April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Arsenal | Everton | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Emirates Stadium |
Man City | West Ham United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Etihad Stadium |
Brentford | Newcastle United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | GTech Community Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Amex Stadium |
Burnley | Nottingham Forest | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Turf Moor |
Chelsea | Bournemouth | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Stamford Bridge |
Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Selhurst Park |
Liverpool | Wolves | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Anfield |
Luton Town | Fulham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Kenilworth Road |
Sheffield United | Tottenham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Bramall Lane |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential | Notes |
Manchester City | 27-7-3 | 88 | 60 | --- |
Arsenal FC | 27-5-5 | 86 | 61 | --- |
Liverpool FC | 23-10-4 | 79 | 43 | --- |
Aston Villa FC | 20-8-9 | 68 | 20 | --- |
Tottenham Hotspur | 19-6-12 | 63 | 10 | --- |
Chelsea FC | 17-9-11 | 60 | 13 | --- |
Newcastle United | 17-6-14 | 57 | 21 | --- |
Manchester United | 17-6-14 | 57 | -3 | --- |
West Ham United | 14-10-13 | 52 | -12 | --- |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-12-12 | 48 | -4 | --- |
Bournemouth | 13-9-15 | 48 | -12 | --- |
Crystal Palace | 12-10-15 | 46 | -6 | --- |
Wolves | 13-7-17 | 46 | -13 | --- |
Fulham FC | 12-8-17 | 44 | -8 | --- |
Everton | 13-9-15 | 40 | -10 | 8 Point Deduction |
Brentford | 10-9-18 | 39 | -7 | --- |
Nottingham Forest | 8-9-20 | 29 | -19 | 4 Point Deduction |
Luton Town | 6-8-23 | 26 | -31 | --- |
Burnley FC | 5-9-23 | 24 | -36 | --- |
Sheffield United | 3-7-27 | 16 | -66 | --- |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 22-14-1 | .608 | 10-7-1 | .583 | 12-7 | .632 |
Aston Villa | 19-17-1 | .527 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-10-1 | .417 |
Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | .541 | 9-8-2 | .526 | 10-8 | .556 |
Brentford | 14-21-2 | .405 | 6-11-1 | .361 | 8-10-1 | .447 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 15-20-2 | .432 | 8-9-1 | .472 | 7-11-1 | .395 |
Burnley | 18-19 | .486 | 5-13 | .278 | 13-6 | .684 |
Chelsea | 19-18 | .514 | 10-8 | .556 | 9-10 | .474 |
Crystal Palace | 20-17 | .541 | 9-9 | .500 | 11-8 | .579 |
Everton | 17-20 | .459 | 10-9 | .526 | 7-11 | .389 |
Fulham | 18-18-1 | .500 | 10-8-1 | .553 | 8-10 | .444 |
Liverpool | 18-19 | .486 | 10-8 | .556 | 8-11 | .421 |
Luton Town | 22-14-1 | .608 | 13-5 | .722 | 9-9-1 | .500 |
Manchester City | 19-18 | .514 | 8-10 | .444 | 11-8 | .579 |
Manchester United | 17-20 | .459 | 9-10 | .474 | 8-10 | .444 |
Newcastle United | 18-19 | .486 | 12-7 | .632 | 6-12 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 15-20-2 | .432 | 5-13-1 | .289 | 10-7-1 | .583 |
Sheffield United | 19-18 | .514 | 9-9 | .500 | 10-9 | .526 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
West Ham United | 19-18 | .514 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-11 | .389 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
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