- Chelsea is a -1.5-goal favorite against Bournemouth.
- These sides played to a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture at Bournemouth.
- How to creatively bet Bournemouth to score on the Blues.
With an outside shot at the Europa League on the line, Chelsea welcome Bournemouth to Stamford Bridge for their final match.
Chelsea are an in-form team at the moment. They’re unbeaten in their last five and have captured all three points in four straight matches.
As for Bournemouth, they’re struggling to the finish line. Although they sit 11th in the table, they’ve lost two straight and three of their previous five.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Odds – Chelsea vs. Bournemouth
- Chelsea Moneyline: -225
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +475
- Draw Moneyline: +425
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-160/+115)
Premier League Prediction – Chelsea vs. Bournemouth
Bournemouth 2H Team Total Over 0.5 (-135)
Even though Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in three straight home matches, two of those were undeserved by expected goals.
Plus, this Chelsea team has struggled to defend teams that like to push the pace.
Sunday’s match will be their 12th against a side sixth or better in direct speed this season – Bournemouth are fourth, according to Opta.
In the previous 11 matches, Chelsea have kept only two clean sheets. Add in both teams to score is -275 and I expect Bournemouth can find the net on Sunday.
The issue? Bournemouth over 0.5 is -350, so you’re betting off finding the half where they’ll score.
If you examine the stats from Chelsea’s 11 matches against quick-paced teams, bettors will find that the opponent scored in the second half in seven of eight.
The only time the opponent didn’t score a second half goal? Back on Matchday 1 against Liverpool.
In general, Chelsea’s defense takes a dip in the last 45 minutes + injury times.
According to understat.com, the Blues allowed 62.1% of their expected goals tally in the second half, irrespective of the opponent.
That showed itself in the previous fixture against Bournemouth.
Although the Cherries failed to score, they created 69.2% of their xG total in the second half.
If Chelsea jump out to an early lead – they’ve scored the first goal in 11 straight home matches – it’s reasonable to assume they could let their foot off the gas in the second half.
Add in Chelsea allow 1.43 expected goals per 90 minutes with a one-goal advantage and 1.57 xG per 90 with a two-plus goal advantage, and I’ll lay the juice with Bournemouth here.
Chelsea Form
May 15 at Brighton: 2-1, W
May 11 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W
May 5 vs. West Ham: 5-0, W
May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W
April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D
Bournemouth Form
May 11 vs. Brentford: 1-2, L
May 4 at Arsenal: 0-3, L
April 28 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W
April 24 at Wolves: 1-0, W
April 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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