Chelsea vs. Bournemouth Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Bournemouth's Dominic Solanke celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Bournemouth and Manchester United, at The Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, England, Saturday, April 13, 2024.
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 17, 2024, 5:04 PM
  • Chelsea is a -1.5-goal favorite against Bournemouth.
  • These sides played to a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture at Bournemouth.
  • How to creatively bet Bournemouth to score on the Blues.

With an outside shot at the Europa League on the line, Chelsea welcome Bournemouth to Stamford Bridge for their final match. 

Chelsea are an in-form team at the moment. They’re unbeaten in their last five and have captured all three points in four straight matches. 

As for Bournemouth, they’re struggling to the finish line. Although they sit 11th in the table, they’ve lost two straight and three of their previous five. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Odds – Chelsea vs. Bournemouth

  • Chelsea Moneyline: -225
  • Bournemouth Moneyline: +475
  • Draw Moneyline: +425
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-160/+115)

Premier League Prediction – Chelsea vs. Bournemouth

Bournemouth 2H Team Total Over 0.5 (-135)

Even though Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in three straight home matches, two of those were undeserved by expected goals. 

Plus, this Chelsea team has struggled to defend teams that like to push the pace. 

Sunday’s match will be their 12th against a side sixth or better in direct speed this season – Bournemouth are fourth, according to Opta. 

In the previous 11 matches, Chelsea have kept only two clean sheets. Add in both teams to score is -275 and I expect Bournemouth can find the net on Sunday. 

The issue? Bournemouth over 0.5 is -350, so you’re betting off finding the half where they’ll score. 

If you examine the stats from Chelsea’s 11 matches against quick-paced teams, bettors will find that the opponent scored in the second half in seven of eight. 

The only time the opponent didn’t score a second half goal? Back on Matchday 1 against Liverpool. 

In general, Chelsea’s defense takes a dip in the last 45 minutes + injury times. 

According to, the Blues allowed 62.1% of their expected goals tally in the second half, irrespective of the opponent. 

That showed itself in the previous fixture against Bournemouth. 

Although the Cherries failed to score, they created 69.2% of their xG total in the second half. 

If Chelsea jump out to an early lead – they’ve scored the first goal in 11 straight home matches – it’s reasonable to assume they could let their foot off the gas in the second half. 

Add in Chelsea allow 1.43 expected goals per 90 minutes with a one-goal advantage and 1.57 xG per 90 with a two-plus goal advantage, and I’ll lay the juice with Bournemouth here. 

Chelsea Form 

May 15 at Brighton: 2-1, W

May 11 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W

May 5 vs. West Ham: 5-0, W

May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W

April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D

Bournemouth Form

May 11 vs. Brentford: 1-2, L

May 4 at Arsenal: 0-3, L

April 28 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W

April 24 at Wolves: 1-0, W

April 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.