- Chelsea is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Chelsea has won 13 straight and 20 of the last 24 meetings against Palace.
- I predict the likeliest outcome for Sunday’s match is the Chelsea moneyline.
On Sunday, Chelsea looks for their second straight win of the season against Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge.
The Blues thrashed Wolves 6-2 on Matchday 2 following an opening day defeat to Man City. Now, they get a Palace side that has lost 13 straight league meetings against Chelsea.
Results went from bad to worse for Palace on Matchday 2. Following a road loss to Brentford, they fell 2-0 at home to West Ham United.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace Odds, Premier League
- Chelsea Moneyline: -160
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-175), No (+120)
Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Sunday’s match is the Chelsea Moneyline (-160). However, it’s strictly a lean, with the Blues playing on short rest.
Chelsea travels to Switzerland on Thursday for a Europa Conference League fixture. That could, in theory, limit their ability to create margin against Palace.
But, that’s truly the only worry for Chelsea, given they’ve historically bossed Crystal Palace.
In the last meeting — a visit to Selhurst Park for Chelsea — they won 3-1 and bested the post-shot expected goals battle 1.82-0.47, per fotmob.com.
Granted, Crystal Palace didn’t feature any of Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi or Michael Olise in that match, so Palace were behind the eight ball from go.
Eze’s return on Sunday could bolster Palace’s attacking prowess. However, the defensive metrics for Palace are quite concerning.
Through two matches, Oliver Glasner’s side has surrendered 1.5 xG per 90 minutes and allowed 3.11 psxG to Brentford in their lone road match.
Chelsea, which created 3.3 psxG at Wolves, is unquestionably the best attacking side they’ll have faced to date.
All that said, Chelsea’s defense is so unpredictable that I have little interest in laying this big a price.
On Matchday 2, they surrendered 1.96 expected goals to Wolves.
For all of their issues this season, Palace have shown an ability to get shots off in a hurry. Through two matches, they’ve attempted 28 shots.
That leads me to believe this match has a wide range of outcomes, so it’s a pass for me.
Chelsea Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 at Wolves: 6-2, W
- Aug. 22 vs. Servette: 2-0, W (Europa Conference League)
- Aug. 17 vs. Man City: 0-2, L
- Aug. 11 vs. Inter: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 6 at Real Madrid: 1-2, L (Friendly)
Crystal Palace Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 27 vs. Norwich City: 4-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 vs. West Ham United: 0-2, L
- Aug. 18 vs. Brentford: 1-2, L
- Aug. 11 vs. Nantes: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. West Ham United: 3-1, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Chelsea odds and Crystal Palace odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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