- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Manchester United has earned two straight victories over Chelsea.
- Why the market is undervaluing the Blues at home.
It’s the marquee clash of the midweek Premier League slate as Chelsea prepare to host Manchester United at Stamford Bridge.
The last time these sides met at Old Trafford, United dominated the match. They won 2-1, but the non-penalty expected goals battle finished 3.4 to 1.5 in favor of the hosts.
Over the weekend, United dropped points in a 1-1 draw against Brentford, while Chelsea couldn’t take advantage of a 10-man Burnley, drawing 2-2.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Thursday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Manchester United
- Chelsea Moneyline: +100
- Manchester United Moneyline: +225
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Manchester United
Manchester United Spread (+0.5, -130)
When I first evaluated this line, my gut told me to bet Chelsea.
After all, they’re a massive positive regression candidate at Stamford Bridge – they have a +3 home goal differential against a +13.4 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Additionally, there’s a historically profitable system saying to bet on Chelsea.
Since 2012-13, home favorites between +120 and -125 that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 45-27 SU, assuming the opponent played on the road in their previous game.
But then Chelsea went out and laid an egg against Burnley, which triggered a system suggesting fading the hosts.
Since 2013-14, home favorites between +170 and -150 that allowed at least two goals in their last game are 18-32 SU, assuming two factors:
- The opponent has a win percentage north of 45%
- The favorite lost the previous head-to-head meeting outright.
It gets worse.
When those favorites have allowed two or more goals in two straight, they’re 3-11 SU. When they did it in three straight games, they’re 2-5 SU.
There’s a separate system saying to bet on Manchester United.
Since the 2019-20 season, visiting underdogs between 0 and +0.5 on the spread and +200 and +290 on the moneyline are 62-31-6 ATS, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head margin is between 0 and +3
- The team’s previous game margin is between 0 and +4
The kicker? When their opponent failed to win their previous game, those teams are 69.1% ATS.
Manchester United Team Total Over 1.5 (+110) | Game Total Over 3.5 (+100)
These are admittedly correlative to the above wager, but I don’t see how either defense keeps the other out.
United created 3.4 non-penalty expected goals in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford. When they met last May, United generated 4.4 non-penalty expected goals, per fotmob.com.
If Chelsea is surrendering 1.6 xG to a 10-man Burnley team 19th in non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, I don’t know how they keep out United.
That said, Manchester United’s defense is ripe for the taking right now.
Since the calendar turned to 2024, manager Erik ten Hag’s side has played five road matches and has surrendered at least 1.8 xG in all five.
In their last match against Brentford, they conceded 3.3 expected goals. That comes a few weeks after allowing 3.3 to Man City.
Plus, United rank 17th in non-penalty expected goals allowed this season and allowed Chelsea to create 1.5 npxG at Old Trafford.
This season, Chelsea have played eight matches against teams with a bottom-five npxGA average per 90 and have generated 1.89 npxG per 90 minutes.
Add in Chelsea over 1.5 goals is -160, and I’m confident they’ll bag multiple goals.
Take over 3.5 as a hedge on United +0.5. If the Red Devils fail to cover, it’s because they’ve allowed three or more goals.
Chelsea Form
March 30 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D
March 17 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W (FA Cup)
March 11 vs. Newcastle United: 3-2, W
March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D
Feb. 28 vs. Leeds United: 3-2, W (FA Cup)
Manchester United Form
March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D
March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup)
March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W
March 3 at Manchester City: 1-3, L
Feb. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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