Chelsea vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes, celebrates after scoring the opening goal with a penalty kick during an English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Everton at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, March 9, 2024.
(AP Photo/Dave Thompson)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 01, 2024, 4:08 PM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Manchester United has earned two straight victories over Chelsea.
  • Why the market is undervaluing the Blues at home.

It’s the marquee clash of the midweek Premier League slate as Chelsea prepare to host Manchester United at Stamford Bridge. 

The last time these sides met at Old Trafford, United dominated the match. They won 2-1, but the non-penalty expected goals battle finished 3.4 to 1.5 in favor of the hosts. 

Over the weekend, United dropped points in a 1-1 draw against Brentford, while Chelsea couldn’t take advantage of a 10-man Burnley, drawing 2-2. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Thursday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Manchester United

  • Chelsea Moneyline: +100
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +225
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Manchester United

Manchester United Spread (+0.5, -130) 

When I first evaluated this line, my gut told me to bet Chelsea. 

After all, they’re a massive positive regression candidate at Stamford Bridge – they have a +3 home goal differential against a +13.4 expected goal differential, per 

Additionally, there’s a historically profitable system saying to bet on Chelsea. 

Since 2012-13, home favorites between +120 and -125 that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 45-27 SU, assuming the opponent played on the road in their previous game. 

But then Chelsea went out and laid an egg against Burnley, which triggered a system suggesting fading the hosts. 

Since 2013-14, home favorites between +170 and -150 that allowed at least two goals in their last game are 18-32 SU, assuming two factors: 

  • The opponent has a win percentage north of 45%
  • The favorite lost the previous head-to-head meeting outright. 

It gets worse. 

When those favorites have allowed two or more goals in two straight, they’re 3-11 SU. When they did it in three straight games, they’re 2-5 SU. 

There’s a separate system saying to bet on Manchester United. 

Since the 2019-20 season, visiting underdogs between 0 and +0.5 on the spread and +200 and +290 on the moneyline are 62-31-6 ATS, assuming two factors:

  • The previous head-to-head margin is between 0 and +3
  • The team’s previous game margin is between 0 and +4

The kicker? When their opponent failed to win their previous game, those teams are 69.1% ATS. 

Manchester United Team Total Over 1.5 (+110) | Game Total Over 3.5 (+100)

These are admittedly correlative to the above wager, but I don’t see how either defense keeps the other out. 

United created 3.4 non-penalty expected goals in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford. When they met last May, United generated 4.4 non-penalty expected goals, per 

If Chelsea is surrendering 1.6 xG to a 10-man Burnley team 19th in non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, I don’t know how they keep out United. 

That said, Manchester United’s defense is ripe for the taking right now. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, manager Erik ten Hag’s side has played five road matches and has surrendered at least 1.8 xG in all five. 

In their last match against Brentford, they conceded 3.3 expected goals. That comes a few weeks after allowing 3.3 to Man City. 

Plus, United rank 17th in non-penalty expected goals allowed this season and allowed Chelsea to create 1.5 npxG at Old Trafford. 

This season, Chelsea have played eight matches against teams with a bottom-five npxGA average per 90 and have generated 1.89 npxG per 90 minutes. 

Add in Chelsea over 1.5 goals is -160, and I’m confident they’ll bag multiple goals. 

Take over 3.5 as a hedge on United +0.5. If the Red Devils fail to cover, it’s because they’ve allowed three or more goals. 

Chelsea Form 

March 30 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D

March 17 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W (FA Cup)

March 11 vs. Newcastle United: 3-2, W 

March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D

Feb. 28 vs. Leeds United: 3-2, W (FA Cup)

Manchester United Form

March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D

March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup)

March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

March 3 at Manchester City: 1-3, L

Feb. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.