Chelsea vs. Newcastle United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Before Monday Night Football kicks off from Stamford Bridge in London, I’m here to offer a Chelsea vs. Newcastle United prediction. 

Hosts Chelsea failed to win as road favorites last weekend at Brentford, dropping two points in a 2-2 draw. 

Newcastle United produced a solid 3-0 home win over Wolves, their third win in their last six games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United

• Chelsea Moneyline: -115
• Newcastle United Moneyline: +260
• Draw Moneyline: +300
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United

Newcastle United Spread (+0.5, -115)

Manager Eddie Howe’s side is finally getting healthy, but the market hasn’t quite caught up to them. 

Over their last five matches, Newcastle have earned at least a point four times. Their only loss? At title contenders Arsenal. 

Although it’s nerve-wracking betting on a team with the fifth-worst road expected goal differential in the Premier League, they’ve earned outright wins in two of their last three road fixtures. 

Included in that sample is a deserved 3-1 win at Aston Villa, a side superior to Chelsea in terms of their home underlying metrics. 

Plus, Newcastle United match a historically profitable betting system that wins at a 70% clip. 

Essentially, bettors want to attack road underdogs off a big win when they’re facing a team they beat in the last meeting. 

Since the 2017-18 season, road dogs off a win by two or more goals that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 26-11-2 ATS, assuming their opponent failed to win their previous game. 

This season, those teams are 6-1 ATS. Since last season? 12-1 ATS.

Even when the spread is +0.5 or shorter, teams are 22-10-2 ATS in such spots. 

Given Chelsea drew with Brentford last weekend – a team I rate behind Newcastle United – it’s reasonable to expect they’ll struggle in this spot. 

Plus, Chelsea have faced five teams this season with a win percentage higher than 35% off a non-win. 

In those games, they’ve captured a straight up victory only once. 

As a result, bettors should buy high on Newcastle and back them to do no worse than a result. Bet to -125. 

Chelsea Form 

March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D

Feb. 28 vs. Leeds: 3-2, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L (League Cup, AET)

Feb. 17 at Man City: 1-1, D

Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W

Newcastle United Form

March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W

Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Blackburn win on PK’s)

Feb. 24 at Arsenal: 1-4, L

Feb. 17 vs. Bournemouth: 2-2, D

Feb. 10 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

EPL Standings

EPL ATS Records