- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
- Magpies obliterated Chelsea 4-1 in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Bet into this 70% winning system for Monday’s match.
Before Monday Night Football kicks off from Stamford Bridge in London, I’m here to offer a Chelsea vs. Newcastle United prediction.
Hosts Chelsea failed to win as road favorites last weekend at Brentford, dropping two points in a 2-2 draw.
Newcastle United produced a solid 3-0 home win over Wolves, their third win in their last six games.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
- Chelsea Moneyline: -115
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +260
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
Newcastle United Spread (+0.5, -115)
Manager Eddie Howe’s side is finally getting healthy, but the market hasn’t quite caught up to them.
Over their last five matches, Newcastle have earned at least a point four times. Their only loss? At title contenders Arsenal.
Although it’s nerve-wracking betting on a team with the fifth-worst road expected goal differential in the Premier League, they’ve earned outright wins in two of their last three road fixtures.
Included in that sample is a deserved 3-1 win at Aston Villa, a side superior to Chelsea in terms of their home underlying metrics.
Plus, Newcastle United match a historically profitable betting system that wins at a 70% clip.
Essentially, bettors want to attack road underdogs off a big win when they’re facing a team they beat in the last meeting.
Since the 2017-18 season, road dogs off a win by two or more goals that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 26-11-2 ATS, assuming their opponent failed to win their previous game.
This season, those teams are 6-1 ATS. Since last season? 12-1 ATS.
Even when the spread is +0.5 or shorter, teams are 22-10-2 ATS in such spots.
Given Chelsea drew with Brentford last weekend – a team I rate behind Newcastle United – it’s reasonable to expect they’ll struggle in this spot.
Plus, Chelsea have faced five teams this season with a win percentage higher than 35% off a non-win.
In those games, they’ve captured a straight up victory only once.
As a result, bettors should buy high on Newcastle and back them to do no worse than a result. Bet to -125.
Chelsea Form
March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D
Feb. 28 vs. Leeds: 3-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L (League Cup, AET)
Feb. 17 at Man City: 1-1, D
Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Newcastle United Form
March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W
Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Blackburn win on PK’s)
Feb. 24 at Arsenal: 1-4, L
Feb. 17 vs. Bournemouth: 2-2, D
Feb. 10 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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