- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
- Magpies obliterated Chelsea 4-1 in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Bet into this 70% winning system for Monday’s match.
Before Monday Night Football kicks off from Stamford Bridge in London, I’m here to offer a Chelsea vs. Newcastle United prediction.
Hosts Chelsea failed to win as road favorites last weekend at Brentford, dropping two points in a 2-2 draw.
Newcastle United produced a solid 3-0 home win over Wolves, their third win in their last six games.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
- Chelsea Moneyline: -115
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +260
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
Newcastle United Spread (+0.5, -115)
Manager Eddie Howe’s side is finally getting healthy, but the market hasn’t quite caught up to them.
Over their last five matches, Newcastle have earned at least a point four times. Their only loss? At title contenders Arsenal.
Although it’s nerve-wracking betting on a team with the fifth-worst road expected goal differential in the Premier League, they’ve earned outright wins in two of their last three road fixtures.
Included in that sample is a deserved 3-1 win at Aston Villa, a side superior to Chelsea in terms of their home underlying metrics.
Plus, Newcastle United match a historically profitable betting system that wins at a 70% clip.
Essentially, bettors want to attack road underdogs off a big win when they’re facing a team they beat in the last meeting.
Since the 2017-18 season, road dogs off a win by two or more goals that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 26-11-2 ATS, assuming their opponent failed to win their previous game.
This season, those teams are 6-1 ATS. Since last season? 12-1 ATS.
Even when the spread is +0.5 or shorter, teams are 22-10-2 ATS in such spots.
Given Chelsea drew with Brentford last weekend – a team I rate behind Newcastle United – it’s reasonable to expect they’ll struggle in this spot.
Plus, Chelsea have faced five teams this season with a win percentage higher than 35% off a non-win.
In those games, they’ve captured a straight up victory only once.
As a result, bettors should buy high on Newcastle and back them to do no worse than a result. Bet to -125.
Chelsea Form
March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D
Feb. 28 vs. Leeds: 3-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L (League Cup, AET)
Feb. 17 at Man City: 1-1, D
Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Newcastle United Form
March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W
Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Blackburn win on PK’s)
Feb. 24 at Arsenal: 1-4, L
Feb. 17 vs. Bournemouth: 2-2, D
Feb. 10 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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