- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
- Magpies obliterated Chelsea 4-1 in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Bet into this 70% winning system for Monday’s match.
Before Monday Night Football kicks off from Stamford Bridge in London, I’m here to offer a Chelsea vs. Newcastle United prediction.
Hosts Chelsea failed to win as road favorites last weekend at Brentford, dropping two points in a 2-2 draw.
Newcastle United produced a solid 3-0 home win over Wolves, their third win in their last six games.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
- Chelsea Moneyline: -115
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +260
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
Newcastle United Spread (+0.5, -115)
Manager Eddie Howe’s side is finally getting healthy, but the market hasn’t quite caught up to them.
Over their last five matches, Newcastle have earned at least a point four times. Their only loss? At title contenders Arsenal.
Although it’s nerve-wracking betting on a team with the fifth-worst road expected goal differential in the Premier League, they’ve earned outright wins in two of their last three road fixtures.
Included in that sample is a deserved 3-1 win at Aston Villa, a side superior to Chelsea in terms of their home underlying metrics.
Plus, Newcastle United match a historically profitable betting system that wins at a 70% clip.
Essentially, bettors want to attack road underdogs off a big win when they’re facing a team they beat in the last meeting.
Since the 2017-18 season, road dogs off a win by two or more goals that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 26-11-2 ATS, assuming their opponent failed to win their previous game.
This season, those teams are 6-1 ATS. Since last season? 12-1 ATS.
Even when the spread is +0.5 or shorter, teams are 22-10-2 ATS in such spots.
Given Chelsea drew with Brentford last weekend – a team I rate behind Newcastle United – it’s reasonable to expect they’ll struggle in this spot.
Plus, Chelsea have faced five teams this season with a win percentage higher than 35% off a non-win.
In those games, they’ve captured a straight up victory only once.
As a result, bettors should buy high on Newcastle and back them to do no worse than a result. Bet to -125.
Chelsea Form
March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D
Feb. 28 vs. Leeds: 3-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L (League Cup, AET)
Feb. 17 at Man City: 1-1, D
Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Newcastle United Form
March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W
Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Blackburn win on PK’s)
Feb. 24 at Arsenal: 1-4, L
Feb. 17 vs. Bournemouth: 2-2, D
Feb. 10 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
| Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
| Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
| Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
| Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
| Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
| West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
| Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
| Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
| Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
| Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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