- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Chelsea earned a 2-1 home win over Palace in the last head-to-head meeting.
- Without key attackers, Palace’s offense should struggle.
Ahead of Monday’s Premier League match at Selhurst Park, I’m here to offer a Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea prediction.
Hosts Palace are coming off a bad loss in their last outing against Brighton. Albeit away from home, they found themselves down 4-0 before salvaging a late goal.
As for Chelsea, they’re coming off a bad 4-2 home defeat against Wolves despite claiming an early 1-0 advantage.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace
- Chelsea Moneyline: -125
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +333
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-130/-110)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace
Same Game Parlay: 1H Under 1.5 Goals & Chelsea 2H Double Chance (-125)
I lean to Chelsea on the three-way moneyline, but they’re tough to trust as a road favorite.
The Blues have closed a road favorite eight times this season and have posted a non-penalty post shot expected goal differential of -0.5 or higher only twice.
Further, they’ve won the nppsxG’s battle only three times in those eight matches.
Plus, they’re running into a Palace side that defends very well early.
Manager Roy Hodgson’s side has closed a home underdog four times this season. In those four matches, the first half averages only 0.57 nppsxG’s, per fotmob.com.
Further, Palace have never found themselves behind at the end of 45 minutes in those contests, with all four staying under 1.5 goals.
If that proves true once again and Palace does no worse than a first half draw, they’d have to win the second half outright for this Same Game Parlay to lose.
The problem? They’ll be without key attackers Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise.
Per fbref.com, Eze and Olise are sitting on 0.55 expected goals + expected assists per 90 and 0.77 xG + xA per 90, the two best benchmarks for Palace.
As a result, I question how they will win the game outright against Chelsea, who possess better attackers. Plus, they’ve cleared 1.4 nppsxG’s in their last two games as road favorites.
Accordingly, expect Chelsea to do no worse than a draw in the second half and back this parlay at -130 or better.
Chelsea Form
Feb. 4 vs. Wolves: 2-4, L
Jan. 31 at Liverpool: 1-4, L
Jan. 13 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
Dec. 30 at Luton Town: 3-2, W
Dec. 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
Crystal Palace Form
Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L
Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W
Jan. 20 at Arsenal: 0-5, L
Dec. 30 vs. Brentford: 3-1, W
Dec 27 at Chelsea: 1-2, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Fulham | Everton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Brentford | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Southampton | Manchester City | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Brighton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | May. 10 | 12:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Chelsea | May. 11 | 7 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leicester City | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester United | West Ham United | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Liverpool | Arsenal | May. 11 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-3 | 82 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-4 | 67 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-7-9 | 64 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-7-10 | 61 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 17-9-9 | 60 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-10 | 53 | 12 |
| Brentford | 15-7-13 | 52 | 9 |
| Brighton | 13-14-8 | 52 | 1 |
| Fulham | 14-9-12 | 51 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-13-11 | 46 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-18 | 41 | -11 |
| Everton | 8-15-12 | 39 | -7 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-16 | 39 | -9 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-19 | 38 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-10-16 | 37 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-21 | 22 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 5-6-24 | 21 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-5-28 | 11 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-17-6 | 42.9% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 19-14-2 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-2 | 65.7% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 19-15-1 | 55.7% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 13-19-3 | 41.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-12-6 | 57.1% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-2 | 42.9% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-17-2 | 48.6% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-23-0 | 34.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-17-4 | 45.7% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 20-14-1 | 58.6% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-13-0 | 62.9% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 12-19-4 | 40.0% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-21-1 | 38.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 17-16-2 | 51.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-13-3 | 58.6% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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