- Crystal Palace is a 0.5-goal home underdog against Tottenham.
- Tottenham has won each of its last five EPL matches against Crystal Palace.
- My Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham prediction is the Tottenham Moneyline.
Looking for a fourth win in their last five league matches, Tottenham travel to Selhurst Park for a meeting with Crystal Palace.
Spurs avenged a 3-2 loss to Brighton with a convincing 4-1 win over West Ham on Saturday. That gave Tottenham a third win in four after starting 1-1-2 (W-D-L).
Palace are mired in a struggle. The Eagles fell 1-0 on Monday at Nottingham Forest, marking a third straight loss in the league for Oliver Glasner’s squad.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham prediction.
Premier League Odds: Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | -0.5 (-135) | 2.5 (-185) | -120 |
| Crystal Palace | +0.5 (-105) | 2.5 (+130) | +300 |
| Draw | +290 |
Premier League Betting: Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Prediction
Based on Crystal Palace’s weak offensive record and historically profitable betting angles, my Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham prediction is the Tottenham Moneyline (-120).
How this isn’t -150 or -160 is a total mystery to me.
Crystal Palace might be the fourth-worst team in the league. They’ve yet to earn an outright win in the league, and two of their three points are undeserved based on expected goals.
Plus, Tottenham dominated Palace in the last meeting. Spurs, despite falling behind 1-0, came back to win 3-1.
In terms of underlying metrics, Spurs won 1.9-0.3 on xG and 2.6-0.6 on post-shot expected goals per fotmob.com.
Those metrics and Palace’s result against Forest trigger a historically profitable system in Tottenham’s favor.
Since 2012, favorites in games 2-10 priced between -205 and -105 are 81-23 SU (78%), assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s margin is the previous head-to-head fell between +0 and +4
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -4 and +0
- The underdog closed an underdog in their previous game
Just since the 2018 EPL season, those favorites are 58-14 SU (79%).
Lastly, some betting calculus for this game.
Manchester United closed at +145 at Crystal Palace on Sept. 21. They properly thrashed Palace 1.8-0.3 on post-shot xG, despite playing to a 0-0 draw.
Tottenham is markedly better than that version of Manchester United, and I don’t think this price has moved far enough.
Back the visitors to earn all three points.
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